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Everything posted by olafminesaw
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The “I bring the mojo” Jan 30-Feb 1 potential winter storm
olafminesaw replied to lilj4425's topic in Southeastern States
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The “I bring the mojo” Jan 30-Feb 1 potential winter storm
olafminesaw replied to lilj4425's topic in Southeastern States
My hourly forecast in Greensboro is showing 8". The highest I've seen this far out since moving here in 2018 -
The “I bring the mojo” Jan 30-Feb 1 potential winter storm
olafminesaw replied to lilj4425's topic in Southeastern States
RGEM is a big hit -
The “I bring the mojo” Jan 30-Feb 1 potential winter storm
olafminesaw replied to lilj4425's topic in Southeastern States
I am thinking the sooner the trough digs and tilts negative the better shot the coastal low will have to become dominant and cause both lows to consolidate further west? -
The “I bring the mojo” Jan 30-Feb 1 potential winter storm
olafminesaw replied to lilj4425's topic in Southeastern States
I would want to be in the triangle from Rocky Mount to nags head to VA Beach for this storm -
The “I bring the mojo” Jan 30-Feb 1 potential winter storm
olafminesaw replied to lilj4425's topic in Southeastern States
NAM is A bit more positively tilted and faster. -
The “I bring the mojo” Jan 30-Feb 1 potential winter storm
olafminesaw replied to lilj4425's topic in Southeastern States
NAM has light snow breaking out from the VA border and North 10 AM Friday. Getting the party started early! -
The “I bring the mojo” Jan 30-Feb 1 potential winter storm
olafminesaw replied to lilj4425's topic in Southeastern States
Hope it works out better than this one (in all seriousness, that's a pretty reasonable map all things considered) -
The “I bring the mojo” Jan 30-Feb 1 potential winter storm
olafminesaw replied to lilj4425's topic in Southeastern States
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The “I bring the mojo” Jan 30-Feb 1 potential winter storm
olafminesaw replied to lilj4425's topic in Southeastern States
One limiting factor I noticed this morning is the low is pretty sprawling to start and takes a while to tighten up. The low track of the Euro is close to ideal ideal but suffers from slower consolidation than the GFS (a little further north than we would like as well) -
The “I bring the mojo” Jan 30-Feb 1 potential winter storm
olafminesaw replied to lilj4425's topic in Southeastern States
Right? It's actually a piece of energy leftover from last weekend's storm that swings around and becomes the northern stream energy -
The “I bring the mojo” Jan 30-Feb 1 potential winter storm
olafminesaw replied to lilj4425's topic in Southeastern States
You know something is going right when the mid Atlantic forum starts stirring up trouble in here -
The “I bring the mojo” Jan 30-Feb 1 potential winter storm
olafminesaw replied to lilj4425's topic in Southeastern States
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The “I bring the mojo” Jan 30-Feb 1 potential winter storm
olafminesaw replied to lilj4425's topic in Southeastern States
He has a point, we are still in a relatively delicate position. However, spread will continue to narrow. If we can hold until Tommorow nights runs, we'll be feeling pretty good. -
The “I bring the mojo” Jan 30-Feb 1 potential winter storm
olafminesaw replied to lilj4425's topic in Southeastern States
Listen, if we have to worry about sleet cutting into our totals, we're talking some pretty epic totals. -
The “I bring the mojo” Jan 30-Feb 1 potential winter storm
olafminesaw replied to lilj4425's topic in Southeastern States
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The “I bring the mojo” Jan 30-Feb 1 potential winter storm
olafminesaw replied to lilj4425's topic in Southeastern States
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The “I bring the mojo” Jan 30-Feb 1 potential winter storm
olafminesaw replied to lilj4425's topic in Southeastern States
It serves as an appetizer to the rest of the globals, but is hot garbage -
The “I bring the mojo” Jan 30-Feb 1 potential winter storm
olafminesaw replied to lilj4425's topic in Southeastern States
There really aren't huge differences between the EUro and GFS, wouldn't take much to trend towards a big storm or towards nothing: EURO GFS -
The “I bring the mojo” Jan 30-Feb 1 potential winter storm
olafminesaw replied to lilj4425's topic in Southeastern States
12Z Full phase: Canadian, GFS, Partial/late Phase: Euro⏫, Euro AI, AI GFS No phase: UKMET⏬, ICON, NEXT model⏬ Confidence is growing in the partial phase scenario, but all options still on the table -
The “I bring the mojo” Jan 30-Feb 1 potential winter storm
olafminesaw replied to lilj4425's topic in Southeastern States
It's getting confused with the last storm I think. It mentions a warm nose and considerable freezing rain threat for NC when I ask it about the 12 Euro -
The “I bring the mojo” Jan 30-Feb 1 potential winter storm
olafminesaw replied to lilj4425's topic in Southeastern States
Everything trended West/slower with the last storm, so not entirely unreasonable to expect -
The “I bring the mojo” Jan 30-Feb 1 potential winter storm
olafminesaw replied to lilj4425's topic in Southeastern States
EPS also looked improved. Just waiting on NEXT to wrap up the 12z suite -
The “I bring the mojo” Jan 30-Feb 1 potential winter storm
olafminesaw replied to lilj4425's topic in Southeastern States
Every decent storm has a "back away from the ledge" Euro run. Again, late phase/moderate snow for the Piedmont seems much more likely than the GFS solution, but a 2-4" sub-forum wide snowfall with temps in the teens and some upside is what we've needed for a long time -
The “I bring the mojo” Jan 30-Feb 1 potential winter storm
olafminesaw replied to lilj4425's topic in Southeastern States
Euro AI also jumps east. Probably about time to take the GFS around back and put it out of its misery
