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olafminesaw

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  1. olafminesaw
    12Z Full phase: Canadian, GFS, Partial/late Phase: Euro⏫, Euro AI, AI GFS No phase: UKMET⏬, ICON, NEXT model⏬ Confidence is growing in the partial phase scenario, but all options still on the table
  2. olafminesaw
    It's getting confused with the last storm I think. It mentions a warm nose and considerable freezing rain threat for NC when I ask it about the 12 Euro
  3. olafminesaw
    Everything trended West/slower with the last storm, so not entirely unreasonable to expect
  4. olafminesaw
    EPS also looked improved. Just waiting on NEXT to wrap up the 12z suite
  5. olafminesaw
    Every decent storm has a "back away from the ledge" Euro run. Again, late phase/moderate snow for the Piedmont seems much more likely than the GFS solution, but a 2-4" sub-forum wide snowfall with temps in the teens and some upside is what we've needed for a long time
  6. olafminesaw
    Euro AI also jumps east. Probably about time to take the GFS around back and put it out of its misery
  7. olafminesaw
    What we are seeing is the ensemble members having decent spread between the three camps, so when we see the OP runs jump back and forth, they are just reflecting that spread. For that reason, I would not be surprised to see the Euro come back West, just be aware that does not mean it is necessarily trending positively, just jumping around within the spread of outcomes
  8. olafminesaw
    Sure! I'll update after the 12z Suite. 12z UKMET further East, paused too late, looks a lot like the Euro
  9. olafminesaw
    A bit further East, but still in the favorable phase camp
  10. olafminesaw
    That goes in the weenie runs HOF along with that run that GFS run that dropped two feet four days out with the last storm
  11. olafminesaw
    ICON a step closer towards phasing but not quite there
  12. olafminesaw
  13. olafminesaw
    As it stands: Full phase: Canadian, GFS, UKMET(borderline, but just gets it done) Partial/late Phase: Euro AI, AI GFS, NEXT model No phase: Euro, ICON
  14. olafminesaw
    There's also the possibility of a partial phase that would enhance the ULL snowfall and then hit coastal areas hard (particularly along a line East of greenville NC to Hampton Roads). I think that's probably slightly more likely than the Euro solution of a complete whiff on the phase and much more likely than the full phase the GFS is showing
  15. olafminesaw
    Always bet on a missed phase.
  16. olafminesaw
    Oof
  17. olafminesaw
    A miss for them isn't necessarily bad for us
  18. olafminesaw
  19. olafminesaw
    Confidence growing for a light to moderate event across central NC. Still relying on early phasing for the higher totals (6" +)
  20. olafminesaw
    Lucy whet her appetite and is hungry for more victims
  21. olafminesaw
    We can't seem to get a trough to tilt negative to save our lives the last few years. Not being negative about the prospects for this storm, just an observation
  22. olafminesaw
    Dang.
  23. olafminesaw
    AI GFS digs the trough much more this run
  24. olafminesaw
    Nice, gotta focus on the big picture pieces. All the pieces are on the board,just need to nail down phasing/timing of all the energy. Will be a few more days of model mayhem before we can start focusing on the details
  25. olafminesaw
    Really neat loop and a word of caution https://x.com/TomNiziol/status/2015858077736546666?s=20
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