Yep, I will add, the Euro ensembles run at full resolution, so it is very good at eliminating some of the noise around the model wobbles. Moisture has been on the upswing which is huge for the Western half of NC
Seems so. Last time this happened it came out on the sites that have the delayed version (tropical tidbits). It comes out all at once once the full run is out, I think around 1:30/2:00
.75 QPF across the Eastern 2/3 of North Carolina, for both the GEFS and EPS. Reduced by 25% to get an idea of the footprint of snowfall = 6-10" snowfall at 15:1 ratios. Banding within that broad footprint will allow for 12-18". Some dry slotting may occur West/East of that band where "only" 3-6" falls. The footprint and magnitude of this general consensus will continue to shifts as models try to resolve the Dance of the ULL and developing powerful storm
3-6"+feels like a good bet right now. 8-16" is within reach but models still have lots to resolve, so trying to stay reasonable about the more extreme solutions
A bit of Fujiwara effect going on between the low forming in the Bahamas and along the coast. Could lead to either a track more to the East, or some pretty incredible totals if the Bhama low can swing the primary low back to the west end stall out
I am thinking the sooner the trough digs and tilts negative the better shot the coastal low will have to become dominant and cause both lows to consolidate further west?
One limiting factor I noticed this morning is the low is pretty sprawling to start and takes a while to tighten up. The low track of the Euro is close to ideal ideal but suffers from slower consolidation than the GFS (a little further north than we would like as well)
He has a point, we are still in a relatively delicate position. However, spread will continue to narrow. If we can hold until Tommorow nights runs, we'll be feeling pretty good.