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Everything posted by olafminesaw
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February 19-20 Major Winter Storm Threat
olafminesaw replied to NorthHillsWx's topic in Southeastern States
Mostly noise, but regardless of shifts in precip, the GFS looked a bit more strung out to me. The end result was about the same, but not really a step towards the NAM IMO -
February 19-20 Major Winter Storm Threat
olafminesaw replied to NorthHillsWx's topic in Southeastern States
I think it's fair to say the NAM is probably a bit over amped, but also acknowledge that positive QPF trends on the mesoscale models is a good thing for most and also that the warm nose will likely come into play, at least south of 85 -
February 19-20 Major Winter Storm Threat
olafminesaw replied to NorthHillsWx's topic in Southeastern States
GRAF aligns better with the rest of guidance (not quite as crazy totals). To be taken with a grain of salt, does not seem to pick up on warm noses very well -
February 19-20 Major Winter Storm Threat
olafminesaw replied to NorthHillsWx's topic in Southeastern States
Always seems to do funky things with precip -
February 19-20 Major Winter Storm Threat
olafminesaw replied to NorthHillsWx's topic in Southeastern States
The RGEM belongs in the stop the bleeding camp though for the foothills and moving back in the right direction for the Triad and east -
February 19-20 Major Winter Storm Threat
olafminesaw replied to NorthHillsWx's topic in Southeastern States
Regardless of what happens, the general public is going to in unison say what storm?, around mid-morning on Wednesday -
February 19-20 Major Winter Storm Threat
olafminesaw replied to NorthHillsWx's topic in Southeastern States
Notice the banding from the Triad N & W. Precip distribution is always less uniform and more unpredictable than we tend to expect -
February 19-20 Major Winter Storm Threat
olafminesaw replied to NorthHillsWx's topic in Southeastern States
I am beginning to wonder if the mantra that the warm nose always wins will actually be a benefit, to those of us north and west especially. Could help develop heavier precip returns as I believe the hires NAM might be starting to pick up on -
February 19-20 Major Winter Storm Threat
olafminesaw replied to NorthHillsWx's topic in Southeastern States
Looks okay to me. It is indicating light precip with heavy radar returns, so obviously indicating dry air cutting into totals. I think if those kind of radar returns develop, the column would saturate -
February 19-20 Major Winter Storm Threat
olafminesaw replied to NorthHillsWx's topic in Southeastern States
The lower resolution NAM tends to do an abysmal job at precip distribution, I would wait for the hires version to come into range -
February 19-20 Major Winter Storm Threat
olafminesaw replied to NorthHillsWx's topic in Southeastern States
It has been very good for the most part at identifying the late phase/QPF distribution. This is the last four days of model runs. It lost it there for a bit, but no other model came close to getting it right up until yesterday -
February 19-20 Major Winter Storm Threat
olafminesaw replied to NorthHillsWx's topic in Southeastern States
I have one more negative post and then I'm done being negative. In the triad, if you exclude sleet for the 2022 storm, we have not had a 3"+ snowstorm in over 6 years. During the 2010s Greensboro had 12 3"+ daily snowfalls. I would happily have zero snow a couple years and then get a nice solid 3-5" snowfall, but we can't even seem to manage that after finally breaking the drought. I still think it's possible we break 3", but seems like a long shot at the moment -
February 19-20 Major Winter Storm Threat
olafminesaw replied to NorthHillsWx's topic in Southeastern States
My sense is it does a good job of identifying banding, dry air etc, but best used within 24 hours. Looks to me like the coastal gets going sooner which is why totals are so high, so I don't necessarily buy that. But precip with the first part of the storm crossing the mountains is better than other models so that is encouraging -
February 19-20 Major Winter Storm Threat
olafminesaw replied to NorthHillsWx's topic in Southeastern States
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February 19-20 Major Winter Storm Threat
olafminesaw replied to NorthHillsWx's topic in Southeastern States
Still has the late phase but much more explosive. Could be epic for the tidewater, triad to triangle in the battle zone -
February 19-20 Major Winter Storm Threat
olafminesaw replied to NorthHillsWx's topic in Southeastern States
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February 19-20 Major Winter Storm Threat
olafminesaw replied to NorthHillsWx's topic in Southeastern States
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February 19-20 Major Winter Storm Threat
olafminesaw replied to NorthHillsWx's topic in Southeastern States
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February 19-20 Major Winter Storm Threat
olafminesaw replied to NorthHillsWx's topic in Southeastern States
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February 19-20 Major Winter Storm Threat
olafminesaw replied to NorthHillsWx's topic in Southeastern States
Encouraging to see temps in the mid 20s. Should stave off the *drip drip. Rates may be low to start with dry air/poor dynamics. -
February 19-20 Major Winter Storm Threat
olafminesaw replied to NorthHillsWx's topic in Southeastern States
We do tend to ignore the jet stream impact, which the models tend to underestimate as well. If we can get the storm to slow down a bit we would go from unfavorable jet dynamics as the GFS depicts (right side of the jet streak), to neutral/favorable. -
February 19-20 Major Winter Storm Threat
olafminesaw replied to NorthHillsWx's topic in Southeastern States
The big amped up solution we were seeing all the way up until yesterday afternoon would have cut all but the high elevations out of the possibility of significant snow. Unless we continue a significant trend towards even less phasing/faster, the majority of the subforum would certainly prefer the strung out solution. The big double digit snow totals for western NC through the I85 corridor was always going to be a thread the needle/low probability outcome anyway. -
February 19-20 Major Winter Storm Threat
olafminesaw replied to NorthHillsWx's topic in Southeastern States
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February 19-20 Major Winter Storm Threat
olafminesaw replied to NorthHillsWx's topic in Southeastern States
Looks a little more north to me, but I don't have maps for NC -
February 19-20 Major Winter Storm Threat
olafminesaw replied to NorthHillsWx's topic in Southeastern States
It seems to always be playing catch-up. For us in the triad QPF is the big question now as it seems more likely than not we will get mostly snow (although never count out the warm nose.). Usually the Euro over does it, so I'm guessing .5-1"