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olafminesaw

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Everything posted by olafminesaw

  1. olafminesaw
    Mostly noise, but regardless of shifts in precip, the GFS looked a bit more strung out to me. The end result was about the same, but not really a step towards the NAM IMO
  2. olafminesaw
    I think it's fair to say the NAM is probably a bit over amped, but also acknowledge that positive QPF trends on the mesoscale models is a good thing for most and also that the warm nose will likely come into play, at least south of 85
  3. olafminesaw
    GRAF aligns better with the rest of guidance (not quite as crazy totals). To be taken with a grain of salt, does not seem to pick up on warm noses very well
  4. olafminesaw
    Always seems to do funky things with precip
  5. olafminesaw
    The RGEM belongs in the stop the bleeding camp though for the foothills and moving back in the right direction for the Triad and east
  6. olafminesaw
    Regardless of what happens, the general public is going to in unison say what storm?, around mid-morning on Wednesday
  7. olafminesaw
    Notice the banding from the Triad N & W. Precip distribution is always less uniform and more unpredictable than we tend to expect
  8. olafminesaw
    I am beginning to wonder if the mantra that the warm nose always wins will actually be a benefit, to those of us north and west especially. Could help develop heavier precip returns as I believe the hires NAM might be starting to pick up on
  9. olafminesaw
    Looks okay to me. It is indicating light precip with heavy radar returns, so obviously indicating dry air cutting into totals. I think if those kind of radar returns develop, the column would saturate
  10. olafminesaw
    The lower resolution NAM tends to do an abysmal job at precip distribution, I would wait for the hires version to come into range
  11. olafminesaw
    It has been very good for the most part at identifying the late phase/QPF distribution. This is the last four days of model runs. It lost it there for a bit, but no other model came close to getting it right up until yesterday
  12. olafminesaw
    I have one more negative post and then I'm done being negative. In the triad, if you exclude sleet for the 2022 storm, we have not had a 3"+ snowstorm in over 6 years. During the 2010s Greensboro had 12 3"+ daily snowfalls. I would happily have zero snow a couple years and then get a nice solid 3-5" snowfall, but we can't even seem to manage that after finally breaking the drought. I still think it's possible we break 3", but seems like a long shot at the moment
  13. olafminesaw
    My sense is it does a good job of identifying banding, dry air etc, but best used within 24 hours. Looks to me like the coastal gets going sooner which is why totals are so high, so I don't necessarily buy that. But precip with the first part of the storm crossing the mountains is better than other models so that is encouraging
  14. olafminesaw
    GFS slows the bleeding a bit
  15. olafminesaw
    Still has the late phase but much more explosive. Could be epic for the tidewater, triad to triangle in the battle zone
  16. olafminesaw
    Hmmm...
  17. olafminesaw
    I feel this is underdone for Raleigh, where even if mostly sleet, over an inch seems likely
  18. olafminesaw
    Don't love the trend towards late development, meaning pretty dry West of Durham
  19. olafminesaw
  20. olafminesaw
    Encouraging to see temps in the mid 20s. Should stave off the *drip drip. Rates may be low to start with dry air/poor dynamics.
  21. olafminesaw
    We do tend to ignore the jet stream impact, which the models tend to underestimate as well. If we can get the storm to slow down a bit we would go from unfavorable jet dynamics as the GFS depicts (right side of the jet streak), to neutral/favorable.
  22. olafminesaw
    The big amped up solution we were seeing all the way up until yesterday afternoon would have cut all but the high elevations out of the possibility of significant snow. Unless we continue a significant trend towards even less phasing/faster, the majority of the subforum would certainly prefer the strung out solution. The big double digit snow totals for western NC through the I85 corridor was always going to be a thread the needle/low probability outcome anyway.
  23. olafminesaw
  24. olafminesaw
    Looks a little more north to me, but I don't have maps for NC
  25. olafminesaw
    It seems to always be playing catch-up. For us in the triad QPF is the big question now as it seems more likely than not we will get mostly snow (although never count out the warm nose.). Usually the Euro over does it, so I'm guessing .5-1"
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