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olafminesaw

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Everything posted by olafminesaw

  1. olafminesaw
    We can't seem to get a trough to tilt negative to save our lives the last few years. Not being negative about the prospects for this storm, just an observation
  2. olafminesaw
    Dang.
  3. olafminesaw
    AI GFS digs the trough much more this run
  4. olafminesaw
    Nice, gotta focus on the big picture pieces. All the pieces are on the board,just need to nail down phasing/timing of all the energy. Will be a few more days of model mayhem before we can start focusing on the details
  5. olafminesaw
    Really neat loop and a word of caution https://x.com/TomNiziol/status/2015858077736546666?s=20
  6. olafminesaw
    14 days 21 hours in 1977. With a decent snowpack it may start pushing towards the top of the list
  7. olafminesaw
    Euro AI Rock Steady in the general evolution (6z vs 12z)
  8. olafminesaw
    Euro AI and AI EPS are both looking really good
  9. olafminesaw
    EPS more suppressed, but in a great spot for the coast
  10. olafminesaw
    It's the double barrel low that keeps the Euro from being a bigger run. That primary low position is perfect, just need it to consolidate
  11. olafminesaw
    A beautiful ice cold run for the carolinas with decent moisture. All we can really ask for
  12. olafminesaw
    The HRPDS nailed this storm BTW. Unfortunately just at the edge of it's domain, but this was some frames from the Saturday 12z run
  13. olafminesaw
    Not too far off from the ICON, especially at this range
  14. olafminesaw
    This site is awesome! has all kinds of customized overlay options, but being overlay reflectivity with 500 mb vorticity really helps show the interaction between the surface and upper levels. Aguacero | Advanced Weather Visualization
  15. olafminesaw
    Yeah, even Richmond kinda gets left out of their forum mostly. It's truly just DC/Nova. Southern VA has about as high a concentration of Confederate flags as anywhere, so I think the belong in the SE (even though we begrudge how much more snow he gets)
  16. olafminesaw
    Jan 2000 blizzard vs this morning's Euro, crazy phasing aside, it's not an unreasonable analog
  17. olafminesaw
    I fear the late phase could be the nail in the coffin on this one. Would be hard to stomach with the too early phase this weekend
  18. olafminesaw
    The wind shifted and the wedge broke down all at once. Pretty neat.
  19. olafminesaw
    Don't need caffeine if we can reel in more runs like the one above
  20. olafminesaw
    Temp up to 19 at GSO, makes me nervous
  21. olafminesaw
    Check out the moisture transport that will be concentrated in that band, off the charts!
  22. olafminesaw
    Just missed the heavier returns. An appetizer for this evening I hope
  23. olafminesaw
    12z vs 18z soundings, slightly shallower, but holding strong
  24. olafminesaw
    The HRRR just keeps trending colder. I don't think it's out of the question the final band is mixed with sleet. In fact that is what it is showing on P-type map
  25. olafminesaw
    Perhaps, although we seem to be entering the dry slot now. May backfill a bit, but I think by 12-1pm precip will be very light until the backside band swings through. Maybe we get some sleet in that band as well (let's hope so)
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