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Everything posted by olafminesaw

  1. Haha, and I expect them to be right too! We've found so many creative ways of having boring weather around here lately
  2. I wouldn't be surprised if wind gust end up higher for eastern NC than they were for most of the Florida coast
  3. Let the hallucinations commence! Seriously though, it's going to be a real close call for Tampa proper, saint Petersburg/Clearwater will bear the brunt of the wind I think. Max surge is just about locked in for the bay. Hard to believe the worst is still hours away for Tampa, as close as it appears
  4. Yeah, he decided last minute, so he's rushing to get to the landfall point
  5. Hurricane warnings issued for Tampa and up the coast. Elsa is now forecasted to reach hurricane strength very soon
  6. Nothing to support an upgrade in the most recent pass, 60 kt max winds and pressure holding steady
  7. I figure they will be conservative and call it a 70 mph TS, even if there is reasonable evidence to upgrade, for this very reason. They don't want to have to downgrade a few hours later and confuse the public.
  8. You can see on visible, the convection being sheared to the east. If anything, this enhances the flood threat, especially inland.
  9. This feels like one of those reddit April fool's things. Like, it's a practical joke, where we all descend into madness trying to figure out how to get points and badges and why certain new members move up the ranks faster and have special powers.
  10. We are all newbies on this blessed day
  11. Seems like Elsa will be crossing land at the optimal strength for surviving landfall well. Big differences though between a track to the south (less weakening) and North (more weakening)
  12. Wow, 7 degrees colder than the airport.
  13. Really impressive structures with the cells all along the VA. Just not enough spin to drop tornadoes (for long anyway) but a couple nasty looking hooks.
  14. If you go on weather.us, you can see some different CAMs out of Europe, not sure if any are associated with the ECMWF though. Looks like there's an ICON CAM. None of these are run outside of Europe though
  15. Good people, great smiles!
  16. Are the cells training over the northern portion of Alabama going to create a boundary that will enhance tornado risk to it's south?
  17. If there's any consolation, it's that the primary threat area is centered over the least populous part of that region. Of course all those bigger cities in the moderate/enhanced are certainly quite at risk as well, but a silver lining nonetheless
  18. Kinda surprising they didn't go with 45%
  19. I think statistical analysis is an underutilized tool in meteorology. In any case of extreme weather, the distribution is skewed right. I figure in setups like these the distribution drops off to the right side of the curve very quickly because of how fragile they are. Extreme environments have a very narrow envelope of CIN, or they fail spectacularly, one what or the other
  20. Wind has shifted to the S instead of SE, should see a steady increase in temp/dewpoints. It's a race between the line of storms and the warm air advection
  21. Thankfully, not the tightest of couplets on the west tuscaloosa storm, for now
  22. Are probabilities defined as odds of a tornado within a circle who's radius is 25 miles, or as odds that a line segment 25 miles long will be crossed by a tornado?
  23. Especially with rain chances throughout the day and no sun. Definitely reminds me of april 19 2019 (although I think that setup was a lot more CAPE dependent)
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