olafminesaw

Sounds like Friday could be a decent severe day Mid-Atlantic and Southeast... Pattern amplification will occur Friday as one shortwave trough progresses from the Mid-South to the southeast Atlantic/Mid-Atlantic coast, in advance of another wave digging southward over the Great Lakes. An associated surface cyclone will develop east-northeastward across the Mid-Atlantic late Friday and to the southern New England coast by Saturday morning, while a trailing cold front crosses the Gulf coast, north FL and the southeast Atlantic coast. Within cloud breaks the warm sector will consist of afternoon temperatures near or above 80 F and boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s, which will drive MLCAPE of 1000-2000+ J/kg and minimal convective inhibition by early-mid afternoon. Increasing midlevel flow with time and forcing for ascent along and just ahead of the front will support storm initiation with the potential for storm clusters and some supercells capable of producing damaging winds, large hail and a few tornadoes. If wave timing and thermodynamic profiles remain favorable, some portion of this area may warrant an upgrade in later updates.

This cell headed towards Madison is trouble

Entering the time of year when below average temps are very much welcome. Seems like a cool stretch is likely in about 10 days

Classic convergence. It's a good thing that LP has remained pretty weak

This year has really been marked by notable dry stretches

It's awfully quiet out there!

If we don't manage to reach freezing this spring it would tie the earliest lasts freeze on record. Dropping to freezing in this next cold snap would be right around average, so I would say it shouldn't take "Barney" cold to get there. Models sometimes under do cold from radiative cooling, especially for the Sandhills, which typically would come the morning after the coldest day on models.

It really busted bad in NC. Just seems like we have less active posters in GA & SC

Wow! We have certainly entered the time of year when precip distribution tends to vary considerably across the region. .11 for GSO

Precip drying up east of the Apps? Who'd have thunk

Do the local stations actually determine that,or do they rely on whatever service they get all their products from? I just noticed a lot of channels across the SE use this designation along with the same graphics, so wasn't sure what all that entails

The GEFS is hinting at a cool stretch around that time.

I agree! Perfect temps for not having to run the HVAC at all, while also getting to enjoy a nice warm afternoon

Pretty good verification on this one. Didn't quite reach the magnitude people feared (far from a generational outbreak), but that's a good thing

I don't think it dropped, thank goodness

Big debris ball heading into the west side of Collins. Hoping it can miss just to the West

Will head through a relatively populated part of the state

While things are relatively quiet, any thoughts about tommorow in the Carolina's? Seems like the SPC outlook is pretty tame while local mets are hyping it up a bit.

My bad, I misremembered. I do feel though they are a world a way climate-wise. Would be nice to have more posters from those states

I agree, but it does suck that AL & MS don't really have a subforum that's truly theirs. Technically they fall on the western states sub, but nobody posts there from the deep south

Parts of Alabama are in the moderate day 1 and high day two