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olafminesaw

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Everything posted by olafminesaw

  1. Just for kicks and giggles, I present last night's Euro control
  2. I love days like this every once in a while, a chilly all day rain. The 12z HRRR indicates we should receive 2-3" across the triad
  3. Starting to finally look like a wet period upcoming
  4. An Interesting look at the end of the 12z Euro run
  5. Models have trended drier for sure. But the Euro ensembles have good agreement on .5-1.5" of rain. The GEFS is more all over the place and opens the door for the front to dry out entirely as you allude to. But there's a strong cluster in the .75-1" range. I think we can feel pretty confident in .5"+, which is not enough but a win relative to what we've gotten the past 6 weeks or so
  6. The first extreme drought since 2017 has been issued for some of NC's SW counties. Next Tuesday's system is looking promising for rainfall, especially for the mountains. it looks like a long duration rainfall which will help prevent runoff as well
  7. No meaningful rain on the GFS in the next 10 days. The Euro brings through a frontal system next Wednesday that drops .5-1". Unfortunately we've seen how these fronts have dried out as they've approached. Hopefully we get a pattern change around or just after Thanksgiving. I am glad we are stuck in this pattern now and not in mid January!
  8. More rain to come after the run ends. This would certainly be a drought buster
  9. GSO reporting light rain and 33% humidity
  10. Moisture moving in on radar but dry air bleeding down from VA is going to win out. 60/39 with dew point dropping and temp remaining stable. I don't see us getting more than a few raindrops
  11. BWI: 27.3" DCA: 22.1" IAD: 30.9" RIC: 11.3" SBY: 9.7"
  12. Here is a comparison of temp/precip departures depending on enso state. It seems that El Nino skus more wet in the winter months vs in the fall months. Although El Nino years have reasonable odds of being dry as well
  13. I love this new graphic from IEM. Great way to visualize an entire month.
  14. 63/16 at GSO, a RH of 16%. This is right around the average lowest RH for the entire year.
  15. Wow. That beats nearly every coastal city on the East Coast, including Boston for lowest temp so far this fall. It ties the YTD coldest low at Portland ME, set this morning also.
  16. With an average first freeze date of Oct 30th one would think this morning's low at GSO of 27 is not particularly unusual. However every degree becomes more difficult to attain this time of year. The average first date at or below 27 is Nov 13 and we have not reached this threshold this early since 1976
  17. Incredible photographs (hopefully not paywalled) https://www.theatlantic.com/photo/2023/10/photos-acapulco-aftermath-hurricane-otis/675835/
  18. Really a bizarre frontal passage. Low humidity ahead of the front and clear then clouds and increasing humidity behind it, with a wedge settling in a full 12 hours hours later. Any idea what's driving this?
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