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olafminesaw

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Everything posted by olafminesaw

  1. olafminesaw
    I nominate @NorthHillsWx to make a storm thread. I feel like this is your storm
  2. olafminesaw
    Something to watch, the warm nose currently isn't super strong, which kinda makes sense due to the favorable storm track. Dynamic cooling may help flip some areas along the changeover line back to snow when heavier rates/better dynamics set up. Need to watch the wraparound for a changeover as well
  3. olafminesaw
    Icy 6z Canadian, a bit warmer/more amped than other guidance
  4. olafminesaw
  5. olafminesaw
  6. olafminesaw
    Feels like the EPS has been rock steady on a Danville to Richmond bullseye for days
  7. olafminesaw
    Pretty much where we want it. Sleet is inevitable
  8. olafminesaw
    The GFS is a big outlier regarding temps
  9. olafminesaw
    As I believe NorthHillsWx alluded to earlier, it's all about the timing of the phase. Once the phase occurs the thermals improve, we really want a classic miller A, while some models are a bit more miller B / late phase (GFS)
  10. olafminesaw
    A tale as old as time, all the cold air gets dumped into Texas and we get the leftovers
  11. olafminesaw
    Canadian looks halfway between the GFS and Euro at H5
  12. olafminesaw
    No phasing, very different than the Euro. The second wave gets left behind as well.
  13. olafminesaw
    The GFS so far is a bit slower and a bit more amped
  14. olafminesaw
    To beat the dead horse, the ICON looks way different at H5 than the other models
  15. olafminesaw
    Like three days before the last snow event the ICON had no precip impacting the Gulf coast, it's pretty much useless.
  16. olafminesaw
    SER strikes again!
  17. olafminesaw
    This seems to be the first storm this winter both with legit cold and lots of moisture. Now it comes down to precip type. I think North of 85 will stay all frozen barring significant inland shifts, which seems unlikely with the depth of cold air. As always, expect an early flip to sleet and a more narrow band of ZR than global models show
  18. olafminesaw
    I suspect much of this is sleet not ZR. Regardless, more amped than we would like which seems to be the trend
  19. olafminesaw
    Always feels like this
  20. olafminesaw
    It's early, but I think happy hour GFS just might live up to it's name. Hanging back more through 114
  21. olafminesaw
  22. olafminesaw
  23. olafminesaw
    Model consensus currently has a bullseye on Richmond. I would expect that to shift as far south as Down to 85 or as far north as DC over the next few days. Should have a better feel for how things are going to play out in the next 48 hours or so I think.
  24. olafminesaw
    A very cold run as well, hopefully that's sleet and not zr, with temps in the mid 20s along 85
  25. olafminesaw
    Very closely aligned with the 0z EPS it would seem. Hopefully the 12z EPS ticks south as well, in which case N of I85 will be sitting pretty.
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