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olafminesaw

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Everything posted by olafminesaw

  1. olafminesaw
    One positive about this storm is the cold air continues to press south as the precip moves west to East across our area. That's why I think NC should stay mostly sleet/snow and the ice threat will be more in SC/GA. That is unless the whole boundary ends up shifting way North, but usually blocking HPs are pretty well modeled in advance. January 2022 was an example of what an amped up solution would look like: snow changing over to a raging sleet storm followed by a small amount of ZR
  2. olafminesaw
    Marginally colder too
  3. olafminesaw
    The Euro precip type map on pivotal is calling this ZR, so just be aware that those freezing rain maps are pretty much completely useless
  4. olafminesaw
    EPS came slightly south. In a good spot overall, with ice being the primary limiting factor for a higher end event for now.
  5. olafminesaw
    Raging ice storm 18z Euro
  6. olafminesaw
    Doesn't get much better than that
  7. olafminesaw
  8. olafminesaw
    Coming down steady in S Greensboro but no stickage yet. Thermometer says 36, but usually runs a degree or two warm
  9. olafminesaw
    Something to keep in mind Tommorow, there will likely be two pushes of moisture, one in the early morning and one early after noon with a dry slot in between. The early afternoon is the more likely period to see snowfall/accumulation so patience will be key.
  10. olafminesaw
    GFS at 18z (6z run) vs actual. Handling temps well so far, just a little too aggressive with the cold front
  11. olafminesaw
    Temps running about 3 degrees below forecast so far today. May help Tommorow if that trend can hold
  12. olafminesaw
    You can see how dynamic lift cools the column on the GFS. A little suspect TBH, but not out of the question
  13. olafminesaw
    Also colder (then 6z anyway) a bit of a double edged sword, which is why there isn't much upside with this one
  14. olafminesaw
    Approximate cutoff between what will largely fall as rain vs mostly snow (assuming the NAM's temp profiles are correct) Within the snow zone, a coating to half an inch is possible with a small chance of more if banding develops.
  15. olafminesaw
    850 temps at onset favor snow West of 85 and rain East. Doesn't push the cold air East until after most of the moisture has exited. Just something to watch Tommorow morning
  16. olafminesaw
    This has a the makings of a big surprise for Tidewater VA
  17. olafminesaw
    Approaching landfall as a Cat 5 Flizzard
  18. olafminesaw
    The funny part is a band of rain is supposed to roll through here tomorrow
  19. olafminesaw
    I think he could very well be right, if as usual cold air takes longer than expected to bleed over the mountains. However,I do feel we could overcome with decent rates and get a coating or so as far SE as RAH
  20. olafminesaw
    I am an optimist at heart but I will believe above normal precip when I see it
  21. olafminesaw
    Another tick north on the Euro
  22. olafminesaw
    It helps that sun angle is still relatively low and ground temps should be fairly cold with how cold it's been.
  23. olafminesaw
    Hres RGEM
  24. olafminesaw
    Third wet non-accumulating snow of the year? At least we do that well
  25. olafminesaw
    Nah, we need a place to crash out regardless that's not the main thread
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