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olafminesaw

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Everything posted by olafminesaw

  1. olafminesaw
    Yeah and I think that temperature gradient from the wedge is just going to enhance precip rates, especially wherever that sleet/snow line is
  2. olafminesaw
  3. olafminesaw
  4. olafminesaw
  5. olafminesaw
    GEFS trending colder at the surface and aloft
  6. olafminesaw
    Canadian is all over the place, makes it difficult to take stock in
  7. olafminesaw
  8. olafminesaw
    I nominate @NorthHillsWx to make a storm thread. I feel like this is your storm
  9. olafminesaw
    Something to watch, the warm nose currently isn't super strong, which kinda makes sense due to the favorable storm track. Dynamic cooling may help flip some areas along the changeover line back to snow when heavier rates/better dynamics set up. Need to watch the wraparound for a changeover as well
  10. olafminesaw
    Icy 6z Canadian, a bit warmer/more amped than other guidance
  11. olafminesaw
  12. olafminesaw
  13. olafminesaw
    Feels like the EPS has been rock steady on a Danville to Richmond bullseye for days
  14. olafminesaw
    Pretty much where we want it. Sleet is inevitable
  15. olafminesaw
    The GFS is a big outlier regarding temps
  16. olafminesaw
    As I believe NorthHillsWx alluded to earlier, it's all about the timing of the phase. Once the phase occurs the thermals improve, we really want a classic miller A, while some models are a bit more miller B / late phase (GFS)
  17. olafminesaw
    A tale as old as time, all the cold air gets dumped into Texas and we get the leftovers
  18. olafminesaw
    Canadian looks halfway between the GFS and Euro at H5
  19. olafminesaw
    No phasing, very different than the Euro. The second wave gets left behind as well.
  20. olafminesaw
    The GFS so far is a bit slower and a bit more amped
  21. olafminesaw
    To beat the dead horse, the ICON looks way different at H5 than the other models
  22. olafminesaw
    Like three days before the last snow event the ICON had no precip impacting the Gulf coast, it's pretty much useless.
  23. olafminesaw
    SER strikes again!
  24. olafminesaw
    This seems to be the first storm this winter both with legit cold and lots of moisture. Now it comes down to precip type. I think North of 85 will stay all frozen barring significant inland shifts, which seems unlikely with the depth of cold air. As always, expect an early flip to sleet and a more narrow band of ZR than global models show
  25. olafminesaw
    I suspect much of this is sleet not ZR. Regardless, more amped than we would like which seems to be the trend
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