olafminesaw

Small improvements I think through hours 102. Nothing definitive yet, but precip starting to develope over SE texas

Hard to say. But certainly more suppressed. If I had to guess maybe something like the Euro

EPS moved the other direction, much more suppressed

Differences between the 0z and 12z Euro are mostly noise I think, but keep in mind the 6z was well south of both, so a positive trends there

It's like, draw a map of all the places that never get snow

Jet dynamics a big driver here. Optimal on the Canadian and poorly positioned on the GFS

The Canadian is cooking up some good soup

GFS looking better with less HP pushing south early in the run

This graphic kinda illustrates what I'm thinking as far as a plausible outcome

I agree, and I think we're seeing the threat window narrow to from Southern Alabama up the coast to Wilmington, with a cutoff SE of I95 for best potential. So for posters I that area, although models are currently looking a bit too suppressed they remain in a great spot, while for those of us north of I85, it is increasingly becoming a low probability event (although certainly still lots of time for that to change. I think we all need to be cognizant of location when posting about model runs being good or bad or just whether or not the storm threat remains credible.

From a Climo perspective, I wouldn't bank on moisture displacing a true arctic airmass like we are seeing. Again there is some chance I think that the back end of this cold push has some potential, if ridging can relax gradually

Yikes

The storm only has a chance to develop once the cold push lets up. Maybe we can get the second storm to work out if it comes earlier or later,but I fear the only reason it gets going is because of the escape route to the NE that is provided by the weakness in the ridge

Did the Euro take a step towards the GFS in terms of holding back the energy, or is it simply suppressed and so we kind of have three scenarios?

End of the 18z Euro

Yep, GEFS continues the North trend. I would be pretty surprised if the OP didn't come back north by 12z tommorow or so

18z doesn't run far enough out to draw any conclusions, although it looks further south with the Sunday system which is good

May include some from Sunday night but still...

Not totally unprecedented

Yep. The ground is going to be so cold it is going to sublimate the snow on contact

GEFS actually trended a bit less suppressed the last few runs

Totally different storm on the GFS, I wouldn't say delayed because the first one gets squashed and exits stage right and then a couple days later a new vortex emerges

Yeah, a little warm for accumulations, but certainly could be some mood flakes, or perhaps a car topper!

ICON drops 6"+ on new Orleans with temps in the mid 20s