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olafminesaw

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Everything posted by olafminesaw

  1. olafminesaw
    Regardless of what happens, the general public is going to in unison say what storm?, around mid-morning on Wednesday
  2. olafminesaw
    Notice the banding from the Triad N & W. Precip distribution is always less uniform and more unpredictable than we tend to expect
  3. olafminesaw
    I am beginning to wonder if the mantra that the warm nose always wins will actually be a benefit, to those of us north and west especially. Could help develop heavier precip returns as I believe the hires NAM might be starting to pick up on
  4. olafminesaw
    Looks okay to me. It is indicating light precip with heavy radar returns, so obviously indicating dry air cutting into totals. I think if those kind of radar returns develop, the column would saturate
  5. olafminesaw
    The lower resolution NAM tends to do an abysmal job at precip distribution, I would wait for the hires version to come into range
  6. olafminesaw
    It has been very good for the most part at identifying the late phase/QPF distribution. This is the last four days of model runs. It lost it there for a bit, but no other model came close to getting it right up until yesterday
  7. olafminesaw
    I have one more negative post and then I'm done being negative. In the triad, if you exclude sleet for the 2022 storm, we have not had a 3"+ snowstorm in over 6 years. During the 2010s Greensboro had 12 3"+ daily snowfalls. I would happily have zero snow a couple years and then get a nice solid 3-5" snowfall, but we can't even seem to manage that after finally breaking the drought. I still think it's possible we break 3", but seems like a long shot at the moment
  8. olafminesaw
    My sense is it does a good job of identifying banding, dry air etc, but best used within 24 hours. Looks to me like the coastal gets going sooner which is why totals are so high, so I don't necessarily buy that. But precip with the first part of the storm crossing the mountains is better than other models so that is encouraging
  9. olafminesaw
    GFS slows the bleeding a bit
  10. olafminesaw
    Still has the late phase but much more explosive. Could be epic for the tidewater, triad to triangle in the battle zone
  11. olafminesaw
    Hmmm...
  12. olafminesaw
    I feel this is underdone for Raleigh, where even if mostly sleet, over an inch seems likely
  13. olafminesaw
    Don't love the trend towards late development, meaning pretty dry West of Durham
  14. olafminesaw
  15. olafminesaw
    Encouraging to see temps in the mid 20s. Should stave off the *drip drip. Rates may be low to start with dry air/poor dynamics.
  16. olafminesaw
    We do tend to ignore the jet stream impact, which the models tend to underestimate as well. If we can get the storm to slow down a bit we would go from unfavorable jet dynamics as the GFS depicts (right side of the jet streak), to neutral/favorable.
  17. olafminesaw
    The big amped up solution we were seeing all the way up until yesterday afternoon would have cut all but the high elevations out of the possibility of significant snow. Unless we continue a significant trend towards even less phasing/faster, the majority of the subforum would certainly prefer the strung out solution. The big double digit snow totals for western NC through the I85 corridor was always going to be a thread the needle/low probability outcome anyway.
  18. olafminesaw
  19. olafminesaw
    Looks a little more north to me, but I don't have maps for NC
  20. olafminesaw
    It seems to always be playing catch-up. For us in the triad QPF is the big question now as it seems more likely than not we will get mostly snow (although never count out the warm nose.). Usually the Euro over does it, so I'm guessing .5-1"
  21. olafminesaw
    Really close to the 2018 totals map
  22. olafminesaw
    I believe the 18z Canadian was also colder
  23. olafminesaw
    Yeah and I think that temperature gradient from the wedge is just going to enhance precip rates, especially wherever that sleet/snow line is
  24. olafminesaw
  25. olafminesaw
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