olafminesaw
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Everything posted by olafminesaw
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Small step in the right direction compared to 0z in regards to QPF -
Probably a good call
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GRAF looks great for Atlanta https://x.com/RodneyHarrisTV/status/1876981103870812395
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Yeah, and I don't think we'll really know until the precip starts falling if poor dynamics or the help of mid-level warm advection will win out. Both elements tend to be poorly modeled with less data from the mid/upper levels of the atmosphere
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Hopefully we can reverse the trend this evening
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Oof!
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Dry air apparent, check out radar vs precip totals
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Hires shows the precip shadow from downsloping
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Here's GSP's map
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Can we cash this out?
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Yep, hopefully we can trend back the other way a bit. Perhaps the front end thump will over-perform if a stronger storm verifies, which i think is what the 6z GFS trended towards, rather than trying to rely on back end phasing (which also would mean more mixing)
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Good call I think , at least for the Piedmont
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The GRAF shows what the Euro has been showing for days, dry air cutting into our totals. https://x.com/TimBuckleyWX/status/1876817819913912685
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I wouldn't think too much about the (regular) NAM. It has an amped bias and a cold bias and overall isn't very good. The hires model is great for thermals and identifying banding features but not as useful for track, QPF etc.
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Does anyone have the NBM trends for precip over the past few models cycles? My sense is models trended wetter generally through 6z until the 12z models generally took a step back in terms of QPF
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Will be nice to have instant stickage with highs in the mid/upper 30s and lows in the teens leading up to the storm
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As we look at precip type over the next few days, just need to keep in mind the sleet line will come much further north than modeled and the flip from sleet to ZR will be slower than expected. At least that's how these dynamic storms normally play out
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I would focus on track with the UKMET, does funky things with thermals.
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The 12z GFS aligns pretty closely with the 6z GEFS. Let's see if the OP is adjusting to match it's ensembles, or if the trend is south on the ensembles as well
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I have nothing to complain about, but if I was going to, it's the timing of this thing. Right now looks like we get very little snowfall during daylight hours.
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RAH now has snow likely 70% chance of precip in my forecast Friday night!
