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olafminesaw

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Everything posted by olafminesaw

  1. olafminesaw
    What a forecasting nightmare. Fun to watch from the outside, with no skin in the game.
  2. olafminesaw
    RAH agressive for once (when the stakes are low I suppose). Matches up pretty well with the HRRr's depiction (I think it would be cold enough for some stickage in grassy areas)
  3. olafminesaw
    The HRRR has been trending warmer aloft, but still has a decent period of heavy kitchen sink tomorrow morning. Here is a comparison of the 0z actual sounding to what the HRRR has. Seems to have a good handle on things.
  4. olafminesaw
    Brutally close
  5. olafminesaw
    The warm nose is probably the biggest argument against snow in the Piedmont. Kinda hard to predict to what degree the mid-levels will cooperate and whether there is enough low level cold to be sleet if not
  6. olafminesaw
    Freddy is about to make landfall if it hasn't already. Just East of the city of Quelimane (probably currently just inside the eye)
  7. olafminesaw
    I made a thread since, it's the only short range threat all winter
  8. olafminesaw
    Screw it. I am going to will this into existence. Dynamics are actually looking rather impressive at the moment on hires models. Unclear whether the column will be cold enough, but come on now. let's see some flakes people.
  9. olafminesaw
    This city is pretty close to the center, a very tight core! (Got this on windy)
  10. olafminesaw
    NWS calling for rain/snow mix Sunday morning. I'm rather agnostic on the matter. But a little white rain would be something at least.
  11. olafminesaw
    Major by GA standards anyway:
  12. olafminesaw
    Oh my gosh. I think we made it through a whole winter without it being brought up (or warm temps leading up to an event). That at least is one good thing about this winter!
  13. olafminesaw
    That's fair. I feel like it's really hard to gauge objectively honestly. Some storms that, for example were showing a major snowstorm for Pittsburgh 5 days out, shifted to Minnesota/northern Wisconsin. In this scenario, it feels like the models got it right, but that's just because we got rain either way. It does seem like the models struggled with temps though. A lot of storms went from showing a decent region of snow in the cold sector of the storm, but this shrunk as it got into the medium range.
  14. olafminesaw
    Temps in the upper 30s at night time? Moderate rates? Perfect track required? What could go wrong?
  15. olafminesaw
    I gotta say though, the mountains are certainly still in the game. The 0z EPS and 6z GEFS both have a fairly strong signal around the 17th/18th.
  16. olafminesaw
    If nothing else, perhaps this season has beaten through our collective thick skulls that 5 day+ op runs are meaningless. At least until December, when collective amnesia sets in and that weenie map crack becomes irresistible again
  17. olafminesaw
    Seems to me like we keep getting lows that cut to the great lakes, and kick back the arrival of cold and in turn, lead to another bad storm track.
  18. olafminesaw
    About a 20 degree gradient across Guilford county right now. Winds blowing from the South in Alamance and NNE in Rockingham.
  19. olafminesaw
    Yeah, hopefully something the models can resolve with a little more lead time. Just two major players on the board!
  20. olafminesaw
  21. olafminesaw
    Looking pretty good, cold+moisture = a chance, even with climo against us
  22. olafminesaw
    Perhaps a storm threat sooner rather than later?
  23. olafminesaw
    An all time record snowfall for Augusta in March? Why not...
  24. olafminesaw
    Models are back to being more aggressive with the non-convective wind gusts across the Piedmont, with gusts possibly to 50 mph+. Starting to look like this may be the bigger story than severe weather, for NC anyway.
  25. olafminesaw
    Gosh, I feel for y'all, looks like mode spread 3-5 days out, not 24-48 hours out!
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