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olafminesaw

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Everything posted by olafminesaw

  1. olafminesaw
    Really what we need to be tracking (with respect to low elevation snow)is the 1000-500mb 540 thickness line. The ULL is weak, so it never gets cold enough on the Euro, even with the better track compared to the GFS
  2. olafminesaw
    The Euro looking similar through 54, perhaps a touch south. Not expecting a step towards the stronger GFS solution this run
  3. olafminesaw
    Makes me wonder how many people have called to whatever gov agency about a weather balloon they spotted
  4. olafminesaw
    The trough that will become our ULL is currently pushing through New Mexico
  5. olafminesaw
    UKMET weaker with the ULL
  6. olafminesaw
    The stronger ULL yields much better back side dynamic bands of precip. Small changes made a big difference. I don't think we're done just yet.
  7. olafminesaw
    GFS largely the same I think. Seems to be a bit more consolidated with the ULL, but mostly noise.
  8. olafminesaw
    Right now it's looking like the most likely to get a surprise in the lowlands is somewhere in the region from central Alabama, up into northern Georgia and Eastern TN. This is an area that often seems to miss out on the big coastal storms, so that would be a big win for them if it pans out. Still the ongoing caveats about localized banding, dynamics etc. In those areas.
  9. olafminesaw
    The TT algorithm is suspect to say the least...
  10. olafminesaw
    I think the backend with the ULL swinging through is the best hope for many. Lately, runs have been showing a dry slot and not enough surface cold, but banding could develop with a stronger ULL.
  11. olafminesaw
    Meanwhile...the HRRR had us reaching 71 today, which would smash the daily record of 69.
  12. olafminesaw
    Still some more snow after this for the mountains
  13. olafminesaw
    Vs this morning's run
  14. olafminesaw
    So here's my thinking. Certainly the track of the system more inland is a problem for the Piedmont of NC, as we don't get a chance to be west of the track until the system has spun down. But the other issue seems to be that the SLP is running out ahead of the ULL and the SLP is getting elongated. We need them to be more stacked in order for the better dynamics and access to the cold pool to come into play. See these two model runs 6z this morning vs 6z yesterday morning:
  15. olafminesaw
    Yeah, follows the trend of stalling and running the surface low inland while the ULL hangs back west of the APPS, so no cold to be found
  16. olafminesaw
    I think the issue is the storm kinda stalls out and never gets past us.all the cold air aloft slowly disapates
  17. olafminesaw
    I think we should have a little more clarity once this complex trough interaction takes place in the next 36 hrs. I can't imagine models are going to Handle it perfectly, and it will have a pretty big effect on our ULL
  18. olafminesaw
    Pretty much in line with the OP. Only time I pay any attention to ensembles is to see if they have agreement or not, otherwise the details aren't so important. Especially with the complexity of the ULL, banding etc., Not being handed so well at the lower resolutions
  19. olafminesaw
    Yeah, it runs too far inland for anyone east of the mountains. Hopefully 18z runs can stop the trend.
  20. olafminesaw
    A touch closer to the coast than last run, but this looks good
  21. olafminesaw
    This makes sense. I think we kinda want to start rooting for a more progressive system at this point. In general, modeling has slowed down over the past 48 hours of runs.
  22. olafminesaw
    @Upstate Tiger posted the first map of this threat. He can take it home?
  23. olafminesaw
    A little more inland than we'd like, but not bad
  24. olafminesaw
    Running now. Looks like an improvement to me (further south, stronger ULL)
  25. olafminesaw
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