olafminesaw
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Everything posted by olafminesaw
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Shear evident on IR, perhaps a bit more than expected at this point. But convection is fighting hard with a new burst wrapping around the center. On track for steady weakening, but a rapid expansion of the windfield.
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Wind field starting to expand a bit
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Is that one massive feeder band? Or another feature.
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Also been moving south a bit the past couple hours away from the dry air and shear, probably the biggest reason for the rapid improvement
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The theme of this year's hurricane season: cinnamon roll
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Seems to be structural changes rather than an ERC. No signs of a double wind maxima on recon. New convection is trying to wrap around the eye again,looks to be larger.
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Where the center makes landfall and even just a few miles to the right of center will get much lower surge. Check out this graphic from Ian
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Intense convection wrapping around the new eye
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No signs of shear, now that the new eye is established, should have another specimen by this afternoon. I suspect it will hit cat 5 again, but winds may continue to drop before thy go back up again
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I think just contracting based off radar. Does look less symmetrical but it's far from the radar site so hard to say
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One big difference is Katrina was already quite large when it reached cat 5. A medium/large major hurricane making landfall in the GOM is going to have tremendous surge potential regardless, but I am not sure the comparison is appropriate.
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Wow, eye really warming
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May be just a wobble but a bit more Eastward motion now. At least it might miss the built up barrier islands and brush the national park instead.
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That gradient is wild. Something like a 40 mb rise in pressure over about 7 miles
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The 6z Euro is a worst case track for Tampa. Makes landfall right around Clearwater.
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Gravity waves apparent as the sun rises
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Any idea how the blob of convection to Milton's NE may have an effect? (if any)
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Pressure falling like a rock. Winds up but not as dramatically
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Boom
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Yeah not good seeing it go through an ERC halfway across the Gulf.
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The waters it will be traveling over are more typical of mid September. No upwelling from Helene to speak of, especially with the track it's taking.
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The 6z ensembles well North of the 0z model consensus
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2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season
olafminesaw replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Tropical Headquarters
Good point. To what extent has development made South Florida more vulnerable to freshwater flooding? I feel like I only hear about flash flooding in isolated areas when thunderstorms are training over one area? -
Thankful for the more reasonable rainfall totals here in the Triad in September. However, we still managed to smash the record for most number of 7"+ months in a year at 5 (Jan, may, Jul, Aug, Sep), with the previous record being 3 (5 instances). We are currently ahead of our 2018 record for rainfall and have a very good chance at a top 3 rainfall year yet again (all of the top three would be set in the last 7 years)
