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olafminesaw

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Everything posted by olafminesaw

  1. olafminesaw
    Some big ones in there too
  2. olafminesaw
  3. olafminesaw
    Eric Webb has been the Grinch when it comes to shooting down any optimism the past few years. He is now beating the drum
  4. olafminesaw
    I actually think we've seen some really positive trends overnight in this regard. It was looking like a cutter, or New England special was inevitable in that time frame with the cold air relaxing before the arctic blast arrived behind the storm. Yesterday it was looking like chances were higher for something around the 9th/10th, but now we may get something sooner.
  5. olafminesaw
    It's like one long continuous window of opportunity, which is always good, because we will fail more than win, so the more opportunities the better
  6. olafminesaw
    Some good hits in there
  7. olafminesaw
    In other news...
  8. olafminesaw
    A much better signal for around the 6-8th of January on the 6z gefs
  9. olafminesaw
    This month
  10. olafminesaw
  11. olafminesaw
    The AO is forecast to be -2 vs-1 in early Dec. NAO about the same at -.5. PNA +.5 vs +1 in Dec. So about the same, although AO is probably the biggest driver for snow and -2 is substantial. It would be the most negative AO since 2022. The last time a -2 AO or more was coupled with + PNA and -NAO was January 2021 which was near normal temps and snowfall
  12. olafminesaw
    Possibly the highest mean of the season
  13. olafminesaw
    Positive trends on. The Euro ens
  14. olafminesaw
  15. olafminesaw
    Probably too dry West of the triangle. An odd setup, not sure I buy it, I suspect precip will be too suppressed
  16. olafminesaw
  17. olafminesaw
    Graupel watch! (Because it's all we've got)
  18. olafminesaw
    A helpful diagram I pulled from Twitter. Pacific jet is keeping any Canadian air from migrating down (surprised surprise)
  19. olafminesaw
    Relative to the complete disaster that was expected this winter, certainly things are looking somewhat better than expected.
  20. olafminesaw
    I think the biggest concern for the rest of the winter is how warm it's looking in canada
  21. olafminesaw
    I've never seen an arctic front move directly south like that. Highs in the l 30s in North Florida, and near 50 in Boston.
  22. olafminesaw
    Big shift on the GFS towards something workable for next Friday (this is the storm before the one we've had our eyes on)
  23. olafminesaw
    For a big storm, fast flow/stream interaction to far East and two much Northern stream energy/Great lakes low are all working against us. Working for us is legit cold (if transient), and plenty of Gulf moisture to tap into if the Southern stream can get going. I feel the 6z GFS weak clipper type system is out best chance and may not really get resolved on models until a couple days before the storm. It helps to know we've already had some success this year with a similar system.
  24. olafminesaw
    Anything beyond day 5 is a crapshoot. Check out the differences at 6 days between the Euro and GFS
  25. olafminesaw
    Just a lil run to run variability
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