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olafminesaw

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Everything posted by olafminesaw

  1. olafminesaw
    *Wedge Watch* The GFS has the Triad in the low 70s Friday afternoon, while the hires NAM keeps temps in the mid to upper 40s. I think I can count on a drizzly miserable Friday
  2. olafminesaw
    The Triad gets a 3-5" snow after March 10th about every 15 years (2018, 1993, 1981, 1974, 1972, 1940). The latest 6" storm on record was March 9th 1960
  3. olafminesaw
    I would imagine they're still nailing down the area that will be the highest threat. Right now the I-85 corridor, from Atlanta to Charlotte, is looking to be the highest threat and should be in the enhanced tomorrow. A wide region has 40-50kt sustained winds at 925mb, which wouldn't have trouble mixing to the surface. As for tornadoes, it seems hodographs are showing somewhat more unidirectional shear than optimal (more hockey stick shaped than curved), but I could be wrong.
  4. olafminesaw
    Starting to become somewhat concerned about the wind threat Friday afternoon/evening. All the globals have around 50 mph gusts across the Piedmont. Could very well be overdone, but a pretty wide wind field, regardless of track.
  5. olafminesaw
    The CPC agrees
  6. olafminesaw
    Don't see a 979 mb bomb over the Apps very often...
  7. olafminesaw
    Would be nice not to have to use the AC until April for once.
  8. olafminesaw
  9. olafminesaw
    Yesterday's high of 81 in GSO, ties the all time record for February and the low of 63 ties the all time max-min temp for February.
  10. olafminesaw
    Perhaps one last dance around March 2nd... nothing to lose, little to gain.
  11. olafminesaw
    Add it to the pile of cases where the column was just a few degrees too warm all the way up. Still it's far enough out that it could certainly change.
  12. olafminesaw
    It sounds crazy after the warmth late this week, but gotta still watch this coming Saturday for a little light freezing precip, with the high locked in and moisture running along the a warm front.
  13. olafminesaw
    Based on AccuWeather forecasts the piedmont will be near record warm for February: GSO: +7.8, 1.1 degrees below the record RAH: +8.6, .5 degrees below the record
  14. olafminesaw
    A good bit of discussion happening on the storm2k forum. Freddy is a beast!
  15. olafminesaw
    Look at that lift right at the dendrite growth zone, lol! Could be a fun little squall line, albeit sub-severe
  16. olafminesaw
    Actually in Greensboro, 90-91 had two ZR/Sleet events (as well as one period of light snow) and 91-92 had one light zr event (mid February). So this year would be truly unprecedented if no more frozen fell through the end of the winter.
  17. olafminesaw
    Starting to see a signal for a CAD event around the last week of the month. It's kinda more shocking we haven't had anything close to frozen from CAD this year than that we haven't had any snow. This time of year, cold rain is the more likely outcome though.
  18. olafminesaw
    Looks like there's going to be a lot of cold air in Canada for once, but nothing to force it South
  19. olafminesaw
    I will take my token flakes and run:
  20. olafminesaw
    *sigh...
  21. olafminesaw
    Any analogs you can think of for this sort of ZR event? I figure there isn't really a chance for this to occur below 1,500 ft or so
  22. olafminesaw
    Not good trends on the overnight models for anyone east of the mountains. No cold air to speak of. Too far North and too weak.
  23. olafminesaw
    Yeah, especially since I feel we've seen stronger ULLs get tugged further north/inland (and vice versa). Also the potential is limited because the western Piedmont and northern foothills will likely sit in the dry slot for a while
  24. olafminesaw
    Thermals are kinda trash, but a nice track for the piedmont that run
  25. olafminesaw
    This is right under a heavy band in Virginia as the back end rolls through. Would the column cool more than depicted in this case? Probably. But there just needs to be a deeper cold source to make this workable
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