olafminesaw
-
Posts
3,746 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by olafminesaw
-
Euro still looking good for back end snow
-
Y'all that is the world's smallest snow squall warning
-
The absurdity of using the CFS for precip type has me tickled
-
My weenie take is the Monday system ended up speeding up significantly on models, so maybe the same will hold for the next system
-
It does have a colder/further south track, but it doesn't seem to be handling the thermals correctly. That 12"+ strip should be mostly sleet/ZR based on other models depictions of the mid level temps
-
I think it's the LP over the great lakes ruining the thermals. Need that to be a stout HP instead!
-
Euro says perhaps a little light snow Monday night
-
I think with the 6z Euro AI it's picking up on more of a miller A, so the thermals warm with the transfer to the coast. I think we want the dynamic system because thermals will be better on the north side of the system, even with the inevitable warm nose coming into play. Wouldn't sweat the details, because it seems less granular than other models Edit: of course for you, a miller A is never going to work out, I apologize, this is not just the Carolina's subforum!
-
A little nuance (although this is old)
-
Model swings be like
-
I think probably North of the VA border outside of the mountains, could be a big ice storm for Roanoke
-
The Euro AI had a big storm at 18z and a moderate storm 0z. My sense is it's a good model to use to see which direction model consensus is wrong (it was way North with the 6th system all along). 6z GFS goes back to much more suppressed. Hopefully not the start of a trend
-
12z vs 0z EPS
-
Can you show what you're seeing on the H5 between 0z and 12z. Seemed relatively similar to me, but I struggle when I get away from surface maps
-
When I said I wanted a southern slider for Christmas this is not what I meant...
-
12z GFS, CMC and ICON all take baby steps in the right direction. UKMET remains super suppressed.
-
Yep, good trend
-
I agree, although it always feels like a good look a week out always fizzles, but when we lose the threat a week out it never seems to swing back the other way. Super frustrating, although generally speaking a reflection of climo more than anything
-
Not the worst
-
At least our friends in New England aren't getting it instead
-
-
-
High shifted West this run. Actually better confluence but it's not enough
-
For 90% of us it's all about the dopamine hit of the big model run, not the snow itself (insert change my mind meme format here)
-
I agree. If one of us had been in a coma since November and woke up and checked the models, I think they'd be thrilled at what they saw. I do think models backing off from the 8th-12th a bit should give us some pause, but overall the pieces are there to make something happen and that's all we can ask for in a Nina (or near Nina) winter
