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Everything posted by olafminesaw
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The “I bring the mojo” Jan 30-Feb 1 potential winter storm
olafminesaw replied to lilj4425's topic in Southeastern States
Exactly. We need to rely on the Globals now to nail down the tilt and then once the mesoscale models come into agreement on the low placement we can start to talk details. A more Easterly/offshore track is still possible, but globals generally don't show that solution -
The “I bring the mojo” Jan 30-Feb 1 potential winter storm
olafminesaw replied to lilj4425's topic in Southeastern States
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The “I bring the mojo” Jan 30-Feb 1 potential winter storm
olafminesaw replied to lilj4425's topic in Southeastern States
RGEM has the screw zone more over the triad rather than Raleigh. Focuses energy on the coastal portion and drives the ULL moisture south -
The “I bring the mojo” Jan 30-Feb 1 potential winter storm
olafminesaw replied to lilj4425's topic in Southeastern States
Also I gotta say if you live in upstate SC/NE GA trends have been great for you guys over the past 12 hours. Would not be surprised at all to see Greenville SC get 6"+ -
The “I bring the mojo” Jan 30-Feb 1 potential winter storm
olafminesaw replied to lilj4425's topic in Southeastern States
GRAF kinda mirrors the NAM, so I do think the concern is legit. It's wait and see time -
The “I bring the mojo” Jan 30-Feb 1 potential winter storm
olafminesaw replied to lilj4425's topic in Southeastern States
This is a now-casting event. Please do not live and die by every run of the NAM. Someone will be in the screw zone, someone will get a surprise foot -
The “I bring the mojo” Jan 30-Feb 1 potential winter storm
olafminesaw replied to lilj4425's topic in Southeastern States
One thing that could be a positive for the Piedmont is if the storm continues to tick south that initial deformation band will more likely settle over the area. -
The “I bring the mojo” Jan 30-Feb 1 potential winter storm
olafminesaw replied to lilj4425's topic in Southeastern States
models are struggling to resolve these blobs of convection and how/when/where these pieces will come together as a consolidated low. A bit more negative tilt would make a huge difference East of 85 as consolidation would happen earlier. Kinda running out of time for big shifts,but the Euro kinda moved in that direction set the orientation of the trough -
The “I bring the mojo” Jan 30-Feb 1 potential winter storm
olafminesaw replied to lilj4425's topic in Southeastern States
I am guessing most of those Eastern solutions are showing an elongated low with deeper pressure on the East side. The GFS OP has this feature, but the primary low on the West side -
The “I bring the mojo” Jan 30-Feb 1 potential winter storm
olafminesaw replied to lilj4425's topic in Southeastern States
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The “I bring the mojo” Jan 30-Feb 1 potential winter storm
olafminesaw replied to lilj4425's topic in Southeastern States
The ULL dug further south. The coastal low pops off the coast but doesn't have time to consolidate before moving off shore. Most of the moisture is to the East, need more negative tilt to throw moisture back to the west. -
The “I bring the mojo” Jan 30-Feb 1 potential winter storm
olafminesaw replied to lilj4425's topic in Southeastern States
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The “I bring the mojo” Jan 30-Feb 1 potential winter storm
olafminesaw replied to lilj4425's topic in Southeastern States
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The “I bring the mojo” Jan 30-Feb 1 potential winter storm
olafminesaw replied to lilj4425's topic in Southeastern States
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The “I bring the mojo” Jan 30-Feb 1 potential winter storm
olafminesaw replied to lilj4425's topic in Southeastern States
EPS should be better as well with more stretching of the NS lobe -
The “I bring the mojo” Jan 30-Feb 1 potential winter storm
olafminesaw replied to lilj4425's topic in Southeastern States
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The “I bring the mojo” Jan 30-Feb 1 potential winter storm
olafminesaw replied to lilj4425's topic in Southeastern States
Yeah it cut totals in half in the Triad. Also more in line with It's ensembles -
The “I bring the mojo” Jan 30-Feb 1 potential winter storm
olafminesaw replied to lilj4425's topic in Southeastern States
GFS a touch flatter. No surprise, as guidance begins to tighten up -
The “I bring the mojo” Jan 30-Feb 1 potential winter storm
olafminesaw replied to lilj4425's topic in Southeastern States
RGEM looks really nice overall, but particularly for the foothills/NE GA crowd -
The “I bring the mojo” Jan 30-Feb 1 potential winter storm
olafminesaw replied to lilj4425's topic in Southeastern States
Yep, not massive changes up top but works out to a much better look on the surface. -
The “I bring the mojo” Jan 30-Feb 1 potential winter storm
olafminesaw replied to lilj4425's topic in Southeastern States
NAM popping a low over Arkansas at hour 33. Are we about to get NAMed? -
The “I bring the mojo” Jan 30-Feb 1 potential winter storm
olafminesaw replied to lilj4425's topic in Southeastern States
I need more maps with pretty colors injected into my veins stat! -
The “I bring the mojo” Jan 30-Feb 1 potential winter storm
olafminesaw replied to lilj4425's topic in Southeastern States
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The “I bring the mojo” Jan 30-Feb 1 potential winter storm
olafminesaw replied to lilj4425's topic in Southeastern States
