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olafminesaw

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Everything posted by olafminesaw

  1. olafminesaw
    GFS looks like an improvement in the upper levels,further west with the trough and a tiny bit more negative tilt
  2. olafminesaw
    Exactly. We need to rely on the Globals now to nail down the tilt and then once the mesoscale models come into agreement on the low placement we can start to talk details. A more Easterly/offshore track is still possible, but globals generally don't show that solution
  3. olafminesaw
  4. olafminesaw
    RGEM has the screw zone more over the triad rather than Raleigh. Focuses energy on the coastal portion and drives the ULL moisture south
  5. olafminesaw
    Also I gotta say if you live in upstate SC/NE GA trends have been great for you guys over the past 12 hours. Would not be surprised at all to see Greenville SC get 6"+
  6. olafminesaw
    GRAF kinda mirrors the NAM, so I do think the concern is legit. It's wait and see time
  7. olafminesaw
    This is a now-casting event. Please do not live and die by every run of the NAM. Someone will be in the screw zone, someone will get a surprise foot
  8. olafminesaw
    One thing that could be a positive for the Piedmont is if the storm continues to tick south that initial deformation band will more likely settle over the area.
  9. olafminesaw
    models are struggling to resolve these blobs of convection and how/when/where these pieces will come together as a consolidated low. A bit more negative tilt would make a huge difference East of 85 as consolidation would happen earlier. Kinda running out of time for big shifts,but the Euro kinda moved in that direction set the orientation of the trough
  10. olafminesaw
    I am guessing most of those Eastern solutions are showing an elongated low with deeper pressure on the East side. The GFS OP has this feature, but the primary low on the West side
  11. olafminesaw
  12. olafminesaw
    The ULL dug further south. The coastal low pops off the coast but doesn't have time to consolidate before moving off shore. Most of the moisture is to the East, need more negative tilt to throw moisture back to the west.
  13. olafminesaw
    Ensembles still looking solid.
  14. olafminesaw
    Through dinnertime Friday on the HRRR
  15. olafminesaw
    HRRR starts things off with an Appetizer Friday afternoon
  16. olafminesaw
    EPS should be better as well with more stretching of the NS lobe
  17. olafminesaw
    Just a little extra tilt does a lot of heavy lifting
  18. olafminesaw
    Yeah it cut totals in half in the Triad. Also more in line with It's ensembles
  19. olafminesaw
    GFS a touch flatter. No surprise, as guidance begins to tighten up
  20. olafminesaw
    RGEM looks really nice overall, but particularly for the foothills/NE GA crowd
  21. olafminesaw
    Yep, not massive changes up top but works out to a much better look on the surface.
  22. olafminesaw
    NAM popping a low over Arkansas at hour 33. Are we about to get NAMed?
  23. olafminesaw
    I need more maps with pretty colors injected into my veins stat!
  24. olafminesaw
  25. olafminesaw
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