olafminesaw
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Everything posted by olafminesaw
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This is a communications nightmare for news outlets. Could be 5" of sleet and minimal icing or half an inch of ice. The 5" of sleet is more likely, but when some models are spitting out significant icing it's hard to ignore knowing that it's better to be prepared for the worst
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I don't really think the NAM is better in that regard. A dry slot would mean hours of freezing drizzle during the first half of the storm that would otherwise be sleet with heavier rates/a more southerly track. In fact, I am convinced that is the only way a crippling ice storm will play out East of the Apps
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The 6z Euro coming in a bit South, no major changes
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Yeah that does look like a meaningful improvement
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Eh. I wouldn't give the GFS too much credit given how much it folded to the Euro (gradually), while the Euro hasn't taken any meaningful steps back to the South (yet)
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the Euro has little to no snowfall with a sounding like this leading up to the storm and blocking
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February 94 as well.
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What in the heck is that mess? I think the red and orange should be flipped?
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Euro vs GFS, big differences still
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Come on Euro. Make happy hour great again
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We kinda already have a bit I think in general. Really need the Euro to move in that direction, it has been stubborn
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Seems a bit north so far but the ridge is stronger to the East so that may help suppress as the system moves East
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I agree, although I could definitely see a massive dry slot cutting into QPF way more than models are showing. At this point 4-6" of sleet or bust in my mind.
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This sounding is bonkers, 11 degrees at the surface and 40 degrees 5000 ft up
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The ICON looks like a step in the right direction through 72, with more spacing
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RGEM is showing a wide stripe of sleet with a more narrow zone of ZR in the deep south. Once it is in range, it will be a key model to watch
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Yeah I think it's just frustration at losing the once in a generation snowstorm potential. I find myself chasing the high of the "big one", that I experienced when I was a kid. But I know at the end of the day it will come ago and melt away and my life overall won't be better or worse as a result of what happens. Snow is a gift at the end of the day
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Yep, reposting what I shared yesterday. This low track was 2" snow, 2" sleet and minimal ZR in the triad
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6z Euro is largely the same, maybe a touch south overall. The bleeding stops now, we can only hope
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Totally agree. I do think there is an upside with more moisture early on Saturday from overrunning where the triangle/triad could over perform.
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And the full run
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GEFS still not buying the Euro, ticked south at 6z
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Praying for a sleet bomb and not the ZR Nightmare the Euro depicts at this point. The 6z GFS at least didn't make any big jumps north so maybe the 6z suite can stop the bleeding (although I know many believe the corpse to be already dead)
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Sometimes model tracking feels kinda like this, you get the weight on there just right, hold your breath and...
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There's just so many moving pieces. Will see a bunch more solutions before it's all said and done. Maybe that means freezing rain to the NC border. But also it wouldn't be a huge shock to see things swing back the other way
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