olafminesaw
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Everything posted by olafminesaw
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Just look at the trend on the GFS. I feel confident sleet will cut into our totals, at least somewhat. However, with the trend towards slower/amplification/the breaking down of the HP, QPF has increased as well. I certainly wouldn't complain about 8" of snow and an inch of sleet on top
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The EPS is a bit wetter and warmer, but no big changes. Jackpot zone Northern NC/the southern half of VA
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I think it depends on the algorithm, pivotal seems to count ice as snow on the snow depth, so I would use Kuchera.
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GEFS a bit south, big picture comparison
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Seems to be delayed with the primary impulse which has been the trend lately. I think it's going to be a good run for many
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Yeah a bit north/weaker HP on the GFS so far
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Icon jumps south of 12z
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The glacier will hang around until Easter
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Just textbook
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All but a sliver of VA in double digits is wild. The footprint of this thing is nuts. Very 2010
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Let the south bleed begin only to swing back north and crush us all in the last 48 hours
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Seems like half the social media weather community is people from the Northeast who will defend any model that shows what they want to see
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Seems to be running now
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WPC likes the southerly track
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You're in a great spot for this one!
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That run very reminiscent of the January 2022 storm in terms of the wedge
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GFS
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Euro trends WRT the ridge
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OP GFS pushing the HP further south this run. Not going to be an amped solution for sure
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Huge jump south of 6z
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Icon jumped north, more Euro-like. I tend to think of the AI models as predictive of a way to show the most likely direction the OP models will trend. I would tend to think significant snowfall is much more likely North of Charlotte
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If everyone (a reminder to myself as well) could try and put your posts in the context of a location that will help make the discussion clearer. What is good for southern VA is not necessarily good for northern GA
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Exactly. Extreme ZR totals is all about duration. Heavy precip with that kind of wedge tends to flip to sleet except in a narrow band with surface temps in the mid/upper 20s. That narrow band could set up anywhere and will indeed be a serious issue in all likelihood, but no need to worry too much until we iron out more details
