olafminesaw

Copy paste 9 (just extend to the East)

Am I looking at this right that the northern energy and baja energy are moving closer together and therefore phasing sooner leading to a more amplified solution? What makes the GFS different in this regard?

Fortunately the target is quite wide with this one compared to normal. We have some wiggle room one way or the other (as long as you have reasonable expectations). That being said, we are still more than 4 days out from the main event, which is about when we often see a big adjustment of some kind.

It even gets some snow down to @GaWx Monday night

Yeah QPF is less but that's the trade-off. It's good when our worries about too suppressed and to amplified are both equally in play. As you allude to, I do think suppression is the bigger concern at this point of the two

You could not draw up a better run at 12z than the GFS for Central NC. You don't even see runs like that in fantasy range

It's always fun because it starts off the 12z suite in the mid range and is very often the exact opposite of how the rest of the suite trends

The high pressure is pressing in more through 90 on the GFS. Should be a good run

A few thoughts while we wait for 12z models: 1) be wary of Kuchera maps, as they may over estimate ratios with the warm nose causing the snow to be wetter 2) the front end thump of WAA snow often over performs in terms of snowfall rates, but the sleet line moves north faster than modeled. Areas that are expecting mostly sleet may get 1-3" of snow to start. We will need to wait until the hires NAM is in range late Thursday to start to get a feel for this progression 3)a changeover is inevitable for all but perhaps our most northerly posters, but watch the backside for a changeover back to high ratio snow, particularly if the LP is able to track more to the South 4) watch trends in the track of the low pressure and transfer to the coast today and tomorrow, don't get to sucked into details/totals as we still have 4 days + to go

For sure. My gut is 8-12" in the triad, but higher impact with 1-2" of that being sleet.

The escarpment along the NC/VA border is going to get blasted by the WAA. Wouldn't be surprised if somewhere in that area got 2-3'

Like a tube of toothpaste. Squeeze down one end with the high pressure (over the southern plains) and it pops out on the other side (amplified coastal low).

It certainly is concerning, especially for anyone who gets ZR, with near record cold behind it. Thankfully snow shouldn't be wet and sleet is not really a concern from a power outage standpoint. I do anticipate a good deal of confusion from the general public on this point because the thinking goes: sleet is ice an ice causes power outages?

I used to work for a company that does snow removal and they said the 4" of compacted snow+sleet in 2022 was harder to deal with than the foot of snow we got in 2018. Schools will be closed for a solid week in many places

Stop the count! Hopefully the North trend stops today. I take comfort in the general bias of models to overdo phasing and make systems more progressive lately. Not sure if that rule of thumb will hold with the pattern change

6z Euro a touch colder. Massive run for the Northern half of NC

Just look at the trend on the GFS. I feel confident sleet will cut into our totals, at least somewhat. However, with the trend towards slower/amplification/the breaking down of the HP, QPF has increased as well. I certainly wouldn't complain about 8" of snow and an inch of sleet on top

The EPS is a bit wetter and warmer, but no big changes. Jackpot zone Northern NC/the southern half of VA

I think it depends on the algorithm, pivotal seems to count ice as snow on the snow depth, so I would use Kuchera.

GEFS a bit south, big picture comparison

Seems to be delayed with the primary impulse which has been the trend lately. I think it's going to be a good run for many

Yeah a bit north/weaker HP on the GFS so far

Icon jumps south of 12z