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olafminesaw

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Everything posted by olafminesaw

  1. olafminesaw
    My main takeaway from the Euro is it does little to add clarity to the Sunday storm. It, the GFS and the UKMET all look way different from each other. Again, once we get to around mid-week we should get a clearer picture with all the energy flying around
  2. olafminesaw
    I think we need to resolve this cluster-**** before we can even begin to resolve the evolution of our potential Sunday system
  3. olafminesaw
    A step backwards with a weaker wave though. It looks nice at the surface anyway
  4. olafminesaw
    Model spread six days out is pretty wild. Basically there's two camps, energy breaks free from primarily trough (GFS, ICON, UKMET) and everything else that keeps the upper level energy consolidated to our North
  5. olafminesaw
    A really fascinating ULL evolution. Energy diving over the plains, stalls out and stretches, lobe breaks off and dives south. Not something you see too often. The fast flow and dominant Northern stream limits the ceiling on this event, but if everything goes just right it's a good set up for the best kind of storm: cold temps, heavy snow
  6. olafminesaw
    The Euro had the same general idea, just didn't quite get it done with the phasing
  7. olafminesaw
    A word of caution: I've noticed over the years the GFS has a tendency to over amplify the back side of late phasing storms for the Piedmont. This feels to me like more of a coastal VA threat, although we normally don't get the trough to dig down to the Gulf Coast in these scenarios, so that helps
  8. olafminesaw
    Yeah, basically the more the trough digs on the first storm the more it sets up the second storm to take a favorable southerly track. For once I'm not overly concerned about suppression after the cold air is established
  9. olafminesaw
    DESI has a phenomenal dashboard that allows you to generate custom graphs and maps for models, including using the national blend of models(below), AI models etc.
  10. olafminesaw
    Throwback!
  11. olafminesaw
    Yep!
  12. olafminesaw
    We've had some, they just haven't panned out.
  13. olafminesaw
  14. olafminesaw
  15. olafminesaw
    Reloads nicely after the 15th as well. Very cold run after the pattern change
  16. olafminesaw
    Feels like late phase has been a big issue for years now. In fact, I can't remember the last big juicy coastal winter storm (regardless of precip type)
  17. olafminesaw
  18. olafminesaw
    I'm also thinking the storm around the 15th is more of a Northeast threat and sets the stage for more southerly storm tracks
  19. olafminesaw
    A lot may hinge on the NAO cooperating as to whether this pattern is legit or not
  20. olafminesaw
    Seems like the sort of pattern where we may get frequent shots at light accumulation but no big storm threat.
  21. olafminesaw
  22. olafminesaw
    All three major indices favorable (albeit near neutral mid-month), may be hard for models to resolve
  23. olafminesaw
  24. olafminesaw
    Yeah, as much as the concern has been that cold dumps to our West, it seems like the trend today has been to make any cold air in North America disappear
  25. olafminesaw
    Given the -NAO, we would have to really be cursed not to get any cold air in Jan. Linking up the moisture with the cold is of course another matter
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