-
Posts
3,730 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by olafminesaw
-
See that's how I know this is the South, otherwise you'd be taking them out to do donuts in an empty parking lot...and then getting Chick-fil-A afterward
-
All that dry air just enhanced banding for the developing coastal. Congrats Raleigh, I know how rare these are!
-
-
Huge flakes In Greensboro. Wasn't really expecting these kind of rates. Let's see if the band can stay out for a while, maybe even build to the west a bit, before pushing East. I'm thinking based on hires modeling, we should be in the best dynamics through about 4 pm
-
February 19-20 Major Winter Storm Threat
olafminesaw replied to NorthHillsWx's topic in Southeastern States
You can see the convection that was robbing moisture is pivoting which will aid in moisture transport for Eastern areas -
February 19-20 Major Winter Storm Threat
olafminesaw replied to NorthHillsWx's topic in Southeastern States
Just ask someone from northern England .they have 26 different words for drizzle (just kidding, I made that up...I think). I suppose there's drizzle that makes you a little damp, vs a soaking drizzle. That's my experience anyway -
February 19-20 Major Winter Storm Threat
olafminesaw replied to NorthHillsWx's topic in Southeastern States
I am guessing once this slug of moisture arrives in the Triangle is when the highest rates will occur, remains to be seen how far west the main band can build back. -
February 19-20 Major Winter Storm Threat
olafminesaw replied to NorthHillsWx's topic in Southeastern States
-
February 19-20 Major Winter Storm Threat
olafminesaw replied to NorthHillsWx's topic in Southeastern States
-
February 19-20 Major Winter Storm Threat
olafminesaw replied to NorthHillsWx's topic in Southeastern States
I'm amazed at how this image turns into potentially .1" or less of QPF east of the mountains. We've had plenty of disappointment around here (and when I lived in Virginia)usually in the form of a changeover, but nothing quite so perplexing meteorologically. Common sense normally prevails but here we are -
Not excessively dry sounding at 12z, but generally close to the HRRR. Perhaps the HRRR is overdoing dry air, just a tad
-
February 19-20 Major Winter Storm Threat
olafminesaw replied to NorthHillsWx's topic in Southeastern States
-
February 19-20 Major Winter Storm Threat
olafminesaw replied to NorthHillsWx's topic in Southeastern States
First potential flakes moving off the foothills. Could produce light snow/flurries, but no mechanism to develop meaningful precip atm -
February 19-20 Major Winter Storm Threat
olafminesaw replied to NorthHillsWx's topic in Southeastern States
-
February 19-20 Major Winter Storm Threat
olafminesaw replied to NorthHillsWx's topic in Southeastern States
Models looked abysmal for the triad overnight, but it's encouraging to see the hires models tend towards throwing more moisture back west with WAA as frontogenesis pushes moisture NW -
February 19-20 Major Winter Storm Threat
olafminesaw replied to NorthHillsWx's topic in Southeastern States
Just remember no matter what happens tomorrow, disappointment is temporary, bad climo is forever -
February 19-20 Major Winter Storm Threat
olafminesaw replied to NorthHillsWx's topic in Southeastern States
-
February 19-20 Major Winter Storm Threat
olafminesaw replied to NorthHillsWx's topic in Southeastern States
-
February 19-20 Major Winter Storm Threat
olafminesaw replied to NorthHillsWx's topic in Southeastern States
-
February 19-20 Major Winter Storm Threat
olafminesaw replied to NorthHillsWx's topic in Southeastern States
-
February 19-20 Major Winter Storm Threat
olafminesaw replied to NorthHillsWx's topic in Southeastern States
Oxford to Roanoke rapids always seems to cash in on these coastal late phases, if anywhere in central NC, that's where I'd want to be -
February 19-20 Major Winter Storm Threat
olafminesaw replied to NorthHillsWx's topic in Southeastern States
The other thing I can't stand from the social media crowd is leveraging uncertainty to maintain engagement. It's the same tropes every time: "we're still x hours out, the energy is not yet on shore, we've seen a few ticks in the right direction, we can expect a NW trend". It's not just these are necessarily bad analyses, it's just that they are always biased towards the bigger snowfall for their target region, they are often based on "vibes", they cherry pick one model out of the dozens available, and they often try to give hope to a scenario that will pan out very rarely. -
February 19-20 Major Winter Storm Threat
olafminesaw replied to NorthHillsWx's topic in Southeastern States
One trend I've noticed is that for anyone west of the triangle, the majority of our precip comes from the front side WAA band (about 1"), then a massive dry slot with little or no precip, followed by some light snow Thursday morning (dusting to 1"). Could even see some melting during the afternoon on Wednesday, with temps near freezing, especially in unshaded areas, depending on how quickly the first batch of precip moves through. I would just caution that even if forecasts verify, some may be frustrated by the more stop start nature of this event. -
February 19-20 Major Winter Storm Threat
olafminesaw replied to NorthHillsWx's topic in Southeastern States
The NWS snow forecast maps are well coordinated, but there is obviously some disagreement because RAH held back on issuing warnings and these forecasts just across the border of the forecast office are definitely different (much more aggressive from Blacksburg. -
February 19-20 Major Winter Storm Threat
olafminesaw replied to NorthHillsWx's topic in Southeastern States
Used to only run out to 18 hours. Was probably for the best. Somewhat useful within 36 hours, and as you say, once precip starts pushing into the area will be when it is in it's wheelhouse