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olafminesaw

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Everything posted by olafminesaw

  1. Yep! Hard to ignore the trends, going to come down to temps/rates at this point
  2. I don't disagree with where this is going. Everything has to go perfectly. I think up along the VA border may do okay with this event, especially if trends towards a more amped system continue
  3. GFS has the Wake county screw zone so it must be correct
  4. It always seems like this would happen growing up in Northern Virginia. We'd get a big snow and then a few days later a sneaky little system that uptrended at the last minute to drop a few inches
  5. The 6z GFS made a big change up top. Not far from something halfway decent
  6. Holy cow, just incredible temp swings at GSO
  7. Euro AI is pretty amped. Definitely trending towards a little snow, although temps will be borderline for accumulation
  8. Me after getting the deformation band but checking every model run hoping for a little wet snow
  9. Some in that Western max had over 20:1 ratios. GSO reported .4" liquid
  10. Feel pretty happy with the map I made last night based on how things are currently playing out
  11. Deformation band about to swing through too should be 1"per hour rates easy
  12. The RAP hasn't been perfect but it has easily been the best short range model for this storm so far. Consistent on showing the dry slot in the right place and the band from Charlotte extending up to the VA border.
  13. You can see the dry slot begining to shrink, I think Wake county should be getting into it in about 2-3 more hours
  14. Models are notorious for under doing moisture associated with robust ULLs. I think the Western ULL piece will over perform West of 85 and the coastal generally underperform
  15. Already a dusting at GSO, bodes well as that frontogenesis gets cranking
  16. https://x.com/jackendrickwx/status/2017357675755933951?s=20 Really cool, you can see the trough diving down and starting to tilt
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