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olafminesaw

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Everything posted by olafminesaw

  1. olafminesaw
    Near zero dewpoints last night, which is increasingly unusual as we head into March. Single digit dew points occur just over 10% of the time in late February
  2. olafminesaw
    We have now entered the time of year when you have to both be in a great pattern and get lucky. I am not really seeing a ton of support for cold air linking up with moisture on ensembles, so I would say, bring on the warmth
  3. olafminesaw
    12z holds serve In contrast with the regular Euro
  4. olafminesaw
    Is that ice report legit? Has to be bogus, otherwise the whole purple area would be lights out
  5. olafminesaw
    Yep, when I suggested for you to make the storm thread, I didn't think you would use that power only to bring Raleigh the goods
  6. olafminesaw
    snow or severe? #justmarchthings
  7. olafminesaw
    Yeah, the HRRR had some fresh development east of the mountains but dried up a bit in the most recent run. Encouraging you are already seeing flurries since the best dynamics won't be for at least another hour
  8. olafminesaw
    See that's how I know this is the South, otherwise you'd be taking them out to do donuts in an empty parking lot...and then getting Chick-fil-A afterward
  9. olafminesaw
    All that dry air just enhanced banding for the developing coastal. Congrats Raleigh, I know how rare these are!
  10. olafminesaw
    This is somehow steady light snow
  11. olafminesaw
    Huge flakes In Greensboro. Wasn't really expecting these kind of rates. Let's see if the band can stay out for a while, maybe even build to the west a bit, before pushing East. I'm thinking based on hires modeling, we should be in the best dynamics through about 4 pm
  12. olafminesaw
    You can see the convection that was robbing moisture is pivoting which will aid in moisture transport for Eastern areas
  13. olafminesaw
    Just ask someone from northern England .they have 26 different words for drizzle (just kidding, I made that up...I think). I suppose there's drizzle that makes you a little damp, vs a soaking drizzle. That's my experience anyway
  14. olafminesaw
    I am guessing once this slug of moisture arrives in the Triangle is when the highest rates will occur, remains to be seen how far west the main band can build back.
  15. olafminesaw
  16. olafminesaw
    Round 1, with precip tapering off over Wake county
  17. olafminesaw
    I'm amazed at how this image turns into potentially .1" or less of QPF east of the mountains. We've had plenty of disappointment around here (and when I lived in Virginia)usually in the form of a changeover, but nothing quite so perplexing meteorologically. Common sense normally prevails but here we are
  18. olafminesaw
    Not excessively dry sounding at 12z, but generally close to the HRRR. Perhaps the HRRR is overdoing dry air, just a tad
  19. olafminesaw
    Trends for round 1
  20. olafminesaw
    First potential flakes moving off the foothills. Could produce light snow/flurries, but no mechanism to develop meaningful precip atm
  21. olafminesaw
    Positive trends
  22. olafminesaw
    Models looked abysmal for the triad overnight, but it's encouraging to see the hires models tend towards throwing more moisture back west with WAA as frontogenesis pushes moisture NW
  23. olafminesaw
    Just remember no matter what happens tomorrow, disappointment is temporary, bad climo is forever
  24. olafminesaw
    Eric going a bit more aggressive than I expected
  25. olafminesaw
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