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olafminesaw

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Everything posted by olafminesaw

  1. olafminesaw
    These storms may try to spin up
  2. olafminesaw
    Seems like 75% of the time, the line of storms is less impressive WRT wind gusts than forecasted. With today's dynamics, this one may be different, but I would not be surprised if the winds leading up to the squall line were as high or higher as the squall line itself (40-45 mph)
  3. olafminesaw
  4. olafminesaw
    spin ups possible outside the main threat region even with little or no instability with curved hodographs
  5. olafminesaw
    It's a good thing the line of storms will roll through by about 2pm for most of us. Could be a much more significant day for us if the front were faster (as it will be East of 95) I think the synoptic winds will be the big story, not so much the squall line, especially West of 85. I could see a few spin up tornadoes, in the favored region (mt airy, to Roanoke)
  6. olafminesaw
    The GFS Is showing gusts to 60 mph on Wednesday, while other models are much more reasonable. Should expect gusts in the mid 40s, but a big I difference between 40 and 50 mph gusts.
  7. olafminesaw
    EURO and Euro AI feature suppression. Certainly not the Barney cold as needed, to give wiggle room, about as "thread the needle" as a system can be. The only reason it snows on the GFS is it is able to produce it's own cold and draw down the colder air aloft.
  8. olafminesaw
    Nifty new graphic from IEM showing trends in drought status across the state
  9. olafminesaw
    That is one funky looking ERC
  10. olafminesaw
    Wednesday could certainly be an interesting weather day
  11. olafminesaw
    Going back to 1928, Greenville has never recorded 3 consecutive years with 1" or less of snowfall. They ended up at 1.1", so very close to setting that record. It's also true that they have never recorded 1.1" or less in 3 consecutive years, but that's a bit of a cherry picked stat.
  12. olafminesaw
    Hush now
  13. olafminesaw
    Torch incoming
  14. olafminesaw
    First 10 days of February were +10.5
  15. olafminesaw
    Coldest start to the year across the US in a long time
  16. olafminesaw
    Even more through the end of the run. The only fun thing about March snow is it's rare.
  17. olafminesaw
    Near zero dewpoints last night, which is increasingly unusual as we head into March. Single digit dew points occur just over 10% of the time in late February
  18. olafminesaw
    We have now entered the time of year when you have to both be in a great pattern and get lucky. I am not really seeing a ton of support for cold air linking up with moisture on ensembles, so I would say, bring on the warmth
  19. olafminesaw
    12z holds serve In contrast with the regular Euro
  20. olafminesaw
    Is that ice report legit? Has to be bogus, otherwise the whole purple area would be lights out
  21. olafminesaw
    Yep, when I suggested for you to make the storm thread, I didn't think you would use that power only to bring Raleigh the goods
  22. olafminesaw
    snow or severe? #justmarchthings
  23. olafminesaw
    Yeah, the HRRR had some fresh development east of the mountains but dried up a bit in the most recent run. Encouraging you are already seeing flurries since the best dynamics won't be for at least another hour
  24. olafminesaw
    See that's how I know this is the South, otherwise you'd be taking them out to do donuts in an empty parking lot...and then getting Chick-fil-A afterward
  25. olafminesaw
    All that dry air just enhanced banding for the developing coastal. Congrats Raleigh, I know how rare these are!
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