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olafminesaw

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Everything posted by olafminesaw

  1. olafminesaw
    Of course not, I just mean totals are a 4 standard deviation instead of a 5 standard deviation event, or whatever.
  2. olafminesaw
    Lots of parallels to Helene in western NC from a flooding standpoint. Somewhat similar topograph/rainfall amounts/duration. Jamaica can probably handle it a little better with heavy rainfall from tropical systems being much more common in that part of the world
  3. olafminesaw
    Definitely making the turn
  4. olafminesaw
    Pressure still dropping
  5. olafminesaw
  6. olafminesaw
    In fact, too soon to say but that may be starting now. Westward progress halted the last few frames and wobbled South
  7. olafminesaw
    Yeah, I think a landfall somewhere between Savanna La Mar and Black River. The island is narrower the further West it gets, which could help it maintain intensity/structure as it crosses, upping the potential impact to Cuba
  8. olafminesaw
    The only one I could find that made a sharp turn was Mitch, didn't seem to significantly weaken when making the turn, but did weaken gradually not too long after. Matthew maintained Cat 4 strength well after the turn, but did weaken slightly
  9. olafminesaw
    The wind field seems to be expanding a bit per recon
  10. olafminesaw
    Could be the start of an EWRC
  11. olafminesaw
    Could be a little bit of upwelling too. She's been crawling along
  12. olafminesaw
    Hard to believe it's nearly 3 days from landfall based on that radar image. For context, Jamaica is about the size of Connecticut
  13. olafminesaw
    Heavy bands of rain starting to hit Jamaica
  14. olafminesaw
    No doubt that the Euro has outperformed the GFS on this one, with the NHC being remarkably consistent
  15. olafminesaw
    Anyone have an idea of the construction quality in Kingston? I. Know a lot of these Carribean islands are pretty well constructed cinder block buildings, but poor areas/slums may be vulnerable. Obviously flooding a huge concern regardless
  16. olafminesaw
  17. olafminesaw
    Looks like it will get the upgrade to hurricane at 11
  18. olafminesaw
    Maybe an eye showing on radar?
  19. olafminesaw
    I do think that if this rapidly intensifies overnight or Tommorow it is very likely to go through an ERC before landfall on Jamaica. Timing will be key if that is the case, but the conditions support a relatively quick ERC more often than not, so not sure that's a good thing with wind field expansion and wider footprint of flooding rains
  20. olafminesaw
    Recon reporting a much more organized storm this morning. Well defined center, pressure down towards 1002 mb, LLC had been pulled under the robust convection
  21. olafminesaw
    Land interaction actual may help it to wind up at that approach angle, at least for a while. The island is small enough to not choke off the storm too much unless it gets really close
  22. olafminesaw
    Also worth noting the GFS is an outlier against it's own ensembles
  23. olafminesaw
    Actually some consensus starting to emerge. Aside from the stubborn GFS of course
  24. olafminesaw
    The Google models have been really consistent
  25. olafminesaw
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