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olafminesaw

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Everything posted by olafminesaw

  1. olafminesaw
    A bit delayed a bit more strung out. No major changes through 54
  2. olafminesaw
    Slightly south with a stronger HP
  3. olafminesaw
    Same for the RGEM. It does have a good period of sleet but heavy ZR with temps in the low to mid 20s
  4. olafminesaw
  5. olafminesaw
    That warm nose is incredible given the precip hasn't even arrived yet
  6. olafminesaw
    Not much difference overall I guess but if we wanted to trend towards a stronger wedge it moved in the right direction
  7. olafminesaw
    Diabolical sounding for Raleigh
  8. olafminesaw
    Chance of major ice impacts
  9. olafminesaw
    Seems reasonable for now. I still think we get mostly sleet in the triad, but better to prepare for ice if it's a coinflip
  10. olafminesaw
    https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/wssi/prob_wssi.php
  11. olafminesaw
  12. olafminesaw
    This is a communications nightmare for news outlets. Could be 5" of sleet and minimal icing or half an inch of ice. The 5" of sleet is more likely, but when some models are spitting out significant icing it's hard to ignore knowing that it's better to be prepared for the worst
  13. olafminesaw
    I don't really think the NAM is better in that regard. A dry slot would mean hours of freezing drizzle during the first half of the storm that would otherwise be sleet with heavier rates/a more southerly track. In fact, I am convinced that is the only way a crippling ice storm will play out East of the Apps
  14. olafminesaw
    The 6z Euro coming in a bit South, no major changes
  15. olafminesaw
    Yeah that does look like a meaningful improvement
  16. olafminesaw
    Eh. I wouldn't give the GFS too much credit given how much it folded to the Euro (gradually), while the Euro hasn't taken any meaningful steps back to the South (yet)
  17. olafminesaw
    the Euro has little to no snowfall with a sounding like this leading up to the storm and blocking
  18. olafminesaw
    February 94 as well.
  19. olafminesaw
    What in the heck is that mess? I think the red and orange should be flipped?
  20. olafminesaw
    Euro vs GFS, big differences still
  21. olafminesaw
    Come on Euro. Make happy hour great again
  22. olafminesaw
    We kinda already have a bit I think in general. Really need the Euro to move in that direction, it has been stubborn
  23. olafminesaw
    Seems a bit north so far but the ridge is stronger to the East so that may help suppress as the system moves East
  24. olafminesaw
    I agree, although I could definitely see a massive dry slot cutting into QPF way more than models are showing. At this point 4-6" of sleet or bust in my mind.
  25. olafminesaw
    This sounding is bonkers, 11 degrees at the surface and 40 degrees 5000 ft up
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