olafminesaw
-
Posts
3,160 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by olafminesaw
-
The outer Banks is due for a scraper. Seems like the would get 2-3 hurricanes/near misses every year but not so much the past few years.
-
Reminiscent of Florence with the crawl inland crushing Wilmington (although it seems most model outputs are pretty low impact once you get away from the coast )
-
The 12z spaghetti plots will be epic
-
2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season
olafminesaw replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Tropical Headquarters
Lots of models have this meandering aimlessly near land. Could lead to some significant flooding somewhere -
Going back to April has been defined by feast or famine
-
We went from the 3rd wettest May to the 7th driest June to already the 11th wettest July. With today's rain we may climb into the top 5 for July as well. Talk about weather whiplash!
-
Was woken last night by heavy rain. Nearest rain gauge is picked up .74 in 40 minutes. Not a single 90 degree day on the 7 day forecast!
-
I mean TBF, a lot of the county did get the split. But I feel your pain
-
Storms just firing just south of the VA border along the outflow boundary formed by the morning MCS. Will be interesting to watch and see if that boundary continues to develop and move south.
-
This would be what happens
-
Meanwhile GSO has hit 97 already tying yesterday's high which was the hottest day since 2015. We have a legitimate chance of hitting 100 for the first time since 2012 (although more likely temps will stall out at 98/99). With much more reasonable dew points, our heat index is also 97.
-
Seems like dew points have been running a good bit higher than yesterday's forecast, especially from the triangle East. Temps meanwhile are if anything a little ahead of schedule.
-
The precip distribution actually ended up being fairly uniform surprisingly enough, but the precip cutoff was just a bit further East than modeled (we were living on the edge anyhow). Thankfully we got the heavy rain last Sunday that put a dent in the drought
-
Seems to be a big of low level subsidence that is inhibiting the development of heavier precip across the triad. We may end up underperforming unless we can get some better lift.
-
Already the 2nd most tornado warnings in a single day for the state at 22 per IEM. 5/31 1998 was the highest single day record with 41
-
YTD heat index values confirm that this has been an unusually warm start to summer.
-
2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season
olafminesaw replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Tropical Headquarters
I would not be surprised to see several hurricanes in the second half of October/November. The highly anomalous SST's should extend the window of opportunity by at least a couple weeks. -
Geography dictates that almost any system coming into the Gulf is going to have question marks, such as whether a core can rebuild after being shredded by land, limited time over warm water to strengthen before landfall, shear and dry air from troughs coming off the mainland. There's a reason major hurricane landfalls in the Gulf are relatively rare despite the consistently favorable SSTs
-
Big eye. Might take longer to tighten up/ deepen.
-
This happens a lot, where the only way for the core to tighten after becoming disorganized is frictional effect in the few hours before landfall
-
Treasure beach and surrounding areas may get hit the hardest, a big blowup of convection in that area, and some potential to take a step north.
-
Good news for Jamaica on the 8am track, it keeps the center well of shore, would probably only push hurricane force winds to the coast and Kingston may have dodged a bullet from a wind/surge perspective. Still, the island will bear the brunt of the heavy rain
-
Bizarre looking, never seen such a sheared looking hurricane with such a healthy looking core
-
Euro drops up to 10" of rain in a 6 hr period. Considering globals tend to under estimate both localized higher totals as well as terrain enhancement, could definitely be some serious flooding/ mudslides. A big mitigating factor is the very quick forward motion. Most of the rain falls in 6-8 hours.
-
I would think the hurricane would funnel water into the Kingston harbor, but I'm not seeing much historically to support this possibility. Dean took a similar track/ intensity and I'm not seeing any record of significant surge. It may be protected by coral reefs and is sheltered by a barrier island so that may be why. And as you say a storm track parallel to the coast is going to push less water than more of a 90 degree angle (not sure if I have that right, someone more knowledgeable can correct me)
