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olafminesaw

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Everything posted by olafminesaw

  1. olafminesaw
    As of now it looks like Thusday morning is when the worst of it will hit for the Piedmont, at least in terms of flooding concerns
  2. olafminesaw
    Wonky
  3. olafminesaw
    Looking from the outside in at this possibly historic storm, I've never seen such a series of weenie runs from the NAM, in terms of low probability outcomes. Of course the NAM is probably wrong, but noon Saturday:
  4. olafminesaw
    Yup
  5. olafminesaw
    Interesting how they cluster in a line from Texas to South Carolina
  6. olafminesaw
    It would seem a line of rain/snow showers could make it over the mountains tommorow midday/afternoon, and perhaps a second wave in the evening. Pretty good agreement from the hires models, but probably too warm for anything that does come through to stick. But I know how stingy the mountains are, so probably only light precip, if that.
  7. olafminesaw
    I think it's mainly driven by watching the NAM nail us run after run. Did a lot to raise expectations. The reality is this has looked like a 1-3" event with some upside potential since Tuesday morning
  8. olafminesaw
    Radar is starting to fill the dry slot (albeit slowly). I think we can definitely pull off 1-2", 3" if the costal component gets going early enough
  9. olafminesaw
    The wetter HRRR and RGEM have solid precip in the Triad by 12, while the NAM holds back for a few more hours. We shall see which is right, although nothing building on radar just yet
  10. olafminesaw
    Good tends on the HRRR in terms of QPF for N and W, FWIW
  11. olafminesaw
    Yeah, definitely seems to align with models trending towards less moisture pushing North. It should help us though if a good band does move through early on.
  12. olafminesaw
  13. olafminesaw
    And the 12z NAM confirms this
  14. olafminesaw
    Yeah, gotta wait for the coastal to take over to get decent rates unfortunately, but at that point it may be pulling away
  15. olafminesaw
    Radar starting to blossom nicely in central TN
  16. olafminesaw
    Yeah, the NAM twins are not really much different, does more to confirm 2-4" is quite attainable
  17. olafminesaw
    The HRRR is mostly useless outside 12 hrs. Even then it runs warm.
  18. olafminesaw
    The advisory says 1-3", but my point forecast is only has a 50% chance of precip. Kinda odd.
  19. olafminesaw
    Euro takes a step North
  20. olafminesaw
    The HRW models all came north from 0z
  21. olafminesaw
    Yeah, better to flip to sleet for a while and get good rates than be fringed. Obviously down towards SC is a different story.
  22. olafminesaw
    Looking at soundings, the NAM sugguests sleet could threaten to push as far north as the Triad
  23. olafminesaw
    The NAM looks a touch North and a touch slower to bring the precip at hr 24
  24. olafminesaw
    For the SREF, I would look at QPF as well, ad it tends to run quite warm .5" QPF for Greensboro
  25. olafminesaw
    We have the warm nose to harp on instead (for good reason)
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