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olafminesaw

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  1. olafminesaw
    15/8/4
  2. olafminesaw
  3. olafminesaw
  4. olafminesaw
    They need to work on their map legibility
  5. olafminesaw
    The hires models are showing a band setting up and training over one area somewhere in the Piedmont. Wherever it gets stuck is going to get pounded with at least 2-4" through tommorow morning. As of now concensus seems to put the bullseye somewhere in between the Triad and Triangle up to around Roanoke
  6. olafminesaw
    Might as well make a thread. Get your paddle.
  7. olafminesaw
    I'm surprised RAH hasn't issued a FFW yet. The NAM would bring storm totals to the 6-8" mark
  8. olafminesaw
    As of now it looks like Thusday morning is when the worst of it will hit for the Piedmont, at least in terms of flooding concerns
  9. olafminesaw
    Wonky
  10. olafminesaw
    Looking from the outside in at this possibly historic storm, I've never seen such a series of weenie runs from the NAM, in terms of low probability outcomes. Of course the NAM is probably wrong, but noon Saturday:
  11. olafminesaw
    Yup
  12. olafminesaw
    Interesting how they cluster in a line from Texas to South Carolina
  13. olafminesaw
    It would seem a line of rain/snow showers could make it over the mountains tommorow midday/afternoon, and perhaps a second wave in the evening. Pretty good agreement from the hires models, but probably too warm for anything that does come through to stick. But I know how stingy the mountains are, so probably only light precip, if that.
  14. olafminesaw
    And the 12z NAM confirms this
  15. olafminesaw
    Yeah, gotta wait for the coastal to take over to get decent rates unfortunately, but at that point it may be pulling away
  16. olafminesaw
    Radar starting to blossom nicely in central TN
  17. olafminesaw
    I would wait to see what kind of trend there is on the EPS before bemoaning surpression. Remember, we're still 6 days out.
  18. olafminesaw
    There's a range of temps at which dendrites grow (which create very high ratio snows). Ideally you want the area of greatest lift, to fall within this zone to get dendrites. On tropical tidbits, the orange bars on the left tell you how much lift there is at that level.
  19. olafminesaw
    I don't have any expectations so it's kinda fun. It's like my team's down 2 touchdowns with a minute left. Might as well see what happens
  20. olafminesaw
    The great lakes low kills it, but the trough is a little deeper This time around, so there's that
  21. olafminesaw
    Finally, a mythical unicorn storm like the unicorn storms of old. I would say probably just due to the tendency of the Euro to spin up deep lows out of nowhere. The trough is digging like crazy, the only way this thing works:
  22. olafminesaw
    It got suppressed, which isn't such a bad thing, but not an especially cold airmass.
  23. olafminesaw
    Whats that old reliable wives tail again? 10 days from thunder in the winter means more thunder? Seems about right.
  24. olafminesaw
    No more drought is the "new normal".Yee
  25. olafminesaw
    The 6z models backed off a bit on rain totals. 2-4" has been a good forecast for a day or two now and still seems reasonable, although I wouldn't be surprised to see 6"+ somewhere
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