olafminesaw

Starting to get that look

Fair enough. I'm a bit out of my depth with regards to Climo here, having lived in NC for only 3.5 years. The look of a Miller A for DC is way different than for North Carolina so it takes some getting used to (it's not like we've gotten many the past few years)

A better run, but continues to show more of a cold chasing moisture kind of setup (we all know how these tend to work out). The west trend can only help us so much, with the phase happening to our NE. I think the ceiling for many is a 3-6" type deal, with the exception of possibly SE VA

I do kinda agree. Problem is, so many rules these days favor offenses. I think overall, the rule is reasonably fair, in terms of giving each team equal chances of success. People also don't consider that all else being equal, a teams chance of winning after winning the toss is lower than the opposing team's chance of winning if they get a defensive stop. I think the reality though is that sports first and foremost are about entertainment. And the opportunity to see both teams go up and down the field a couple times with a clean slate is way more exciting than when one star QB capitalizes on his team's chance at the exclusion of the other star QB

It's the playoffs. Why not just put 15 more minutes on the clock, whoever is ahead at the end wins, 15 more if tied? It's not that hard.

Maybe. I suspect this will be a DC to Boston special, but who knows. We need the phasing to occur much sooner.

6z Euro ens moves west again

This is a pretty decent look right now. I don't necessarily trust the Miller b-like transfer the GFS has. We need phasing to happen sooner to a avoid major p-type and temp issues for nearly everyone

Ofshore low that hits New England hard. Light snow for coastal areas

Baby steps in right direction continue. Still, looking like a thread the needle though

Dude... focus on what you're doing. The weather can wait. This coming frome someone sometimes tempted to do the same

Fringed. Less than two feet. I'm out.

Modeling isn't putting us in a bullseye. That particular run is. You have to think about all the model runs existing along a probability distribution. Right now, that distribution pretty much includes all possible outcomes, but favors a big storm more than usual. Lack of deep arctic air is the biggest factor preventing the distribution from skewing more towards a big storm.

First is the upcoming threat. The second image is last Sunday's storm at a similar range

Well, we have our answer, dry air such as this can't completely sublimate falling snow

I fear any east coast bombs that develop this year will inevitably take on a dreaded messy miller b track.

Also, starting to see some banding on the northern fringe show up on the hires models. Wouldn't be surprised to get nothing hardly any snow, except for one band that moves through, dropping a quick half inch

The 17z HRRR move the moisture inland more rapidly. Starts to blossom along the coast at around 5 pm

They've done a great job with this storm, given the hand they've been dealt.

The hires NAM reflectivity map looks great, but the precip map shows zero in the Triad. Will be fascinating to see how this plays out.

Some notes for the Triad The trends east on the last few runs of the HRRR/RAP seem to be due to a layer of dry air not far above the surface. Could be hard to overcome. Compare this to last night's sounding at GSO when very light snow was falling. Even with dry air working in from the front, the column is fairly well saturated. Finally, you can see this layer of dry air just above the surface already showing up this morning, so the HRRR, may, unfortunately be correct.

Meanwhile, Brownsville Texas has reported snow the past few hours