olafminesaw
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Everything posted by olafminesaw
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Three distinct clusters. So when combined with the GEFS something like, 15-20% chance of hooking into MA, 40% chance, landfall on the northern coast of Maine, 40% chance of missing right and hitting NS.
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Two distinct camps between the faster members that miss right and the slower members that have the hook to the left. The thing is now many of even the slower members miss as they get too far east first and don't make as dramatic a turn as they were yesterday. This is the case with the EPS as well with the OP being a bit of an outlier. Coastal Maine is still in play though and effects could certainly be felt in eastern MA due to the size of the storm
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still some pesky convection in the old eyewall, but the new eye is really starting to rock and roll
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Might take some time to clear out though (this a couple hours later)
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Definitely expanding
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The HAFS A and B both have it in the middle of a ERC and don't complete it for about 48 hours. The Navy.mil site seems to be down, so hard to say how far along the process is, but after the last ERC we were left with quite a bit of competing bands that held strength in check initially and ultimately led to our current ERC
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Kinda a wonky structure, lots of banding.
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Working through an ERC at the moment
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Meanwhile Lee is looking much improved, if it can continue to wrap convection around the eye it may take off again sooner rather than later
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The Euro has been all over the place. Swings between missing NS entirely to the East, and a US landfall almost every other run. The GFS meanwhile has been rock steady with a landfall on NS for days now.
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That's MAJOR HURRICANE scrambled eggs to you
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Yeah, it's been rock steady for several days now (keep in mind the heavy precip is west of the track).
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Structure is impeccable. HAFS B suggests an ERC starting around 21-0Z this evening. Seems inevitable based on the size of the eye. But could see strengthening in the meantime
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I think so, I don't think a little bit of shear would cause the eye to degrade on appearance and the pressure to rise so much in a such a short period of time without an ERC. Not any signs of one on microwave which could be just due to the low resolution/small core, but also could indicate more of a meld/quick ERC.
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Missing pressure data at the moment. Hopefully temporary
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2023 Atlantic Hurricane season
olafminesaw replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Tropical Headquarters
Sure why not reload and try again -
Am I seeing a hint of a double wind maxima? Or just noise?
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Went from 80 mph to 160mph (give or take) in 15 hours
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Making any mention of a single ensemble member should be punishable by a night in jail or a fine of no less than $5,000
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The TT SST analysis seems to have ocean temps maybe a bit too cool in the cold pool. A buoy in the heart of it is measuring 78.4F which is warm enough to keep a strong hurricane going. It also has risen a full degree since earlier this morning.
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Not a ton of strengthening overnight, but improvement to structure, should be stable for a while now and ready to rock and roll.
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Looks like it's about to start it's RI tonight
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The TT webpage for Lee updated to hurricane, must be upgrading at 5 pm
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At the bottom of the lower dynamics tab. But it isn't available in all regions.
