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olafminesaw

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Everything posted by olafminesaw

  1. olafminesaw
    https://mrcc.purdue.edu/gismaps/cntytorn# Seems to be the first time (unless maybe that fishy looking one right on the border)
  2. olafminesaw
    From the live stream survey cam
  3. olafminesaw
  4. olafminesaw
    Fortunately it mostly passed through farmland. Brattleboro (population ~500) may have taken a direct hit though.
  5. olafminesaw
    Wow!
  6. olafminesaw
    Also...a friendly reminder to change out your HVAC filters. They're probably pretty gross!
  7. olafminesaw
    I was surprised to wake up to a very smokey morning. Definitely one of the smokiest days yet, and the HRRR seems to back this up. Is anyone in Georgia experiencing particularly dense smoke?
  8. olafminesaw
    I count only three - Ruth (1965), Winona (1989), & Ruth (1994). This is counting storms that passed within 100 miles of HI, & is inexact based on the crossover longitude as the NOAA doesn't display them. Winona is perhaps the most impressive in that it formed East of Hawaii and struck the Philippines as a tropical depression.
  9. olafminesaw
    I'll just say, I wouldn't be standing that close
  10. olafminesaw
    Pretty awesome outflow boundary!
  11. olafminesaw
    Sunday looking not only hot but also sticky. A rude awakening from a nice start to summer
  12. olafminesaw
    I was just looking at this! These things are so hard to predict. They almost always fizzle once they hit the mountains and we get the scraps. But we are in an interesting spot just on the northern edge of the heat dome.
  13. olafminesaw
  14. olafminesaw
    Another way to measure our cool start to the warm months:
  15. olafminesaw
    At GSO, the percentage of years in which the first 90 degree day falls in each month are as follows: March:1.7% April: 18.6% May: 45.8% June: 30.5% July: 3.4% (4 years out of 118) Funnily enough, 2 out of the 4 years that made it to July were 2017 & 2020, and we haven't had a March or April date since 2006. It's going to be really close to making it to July, with a forecast high of 89 on Friday.
  16. olafminesaw
    Spaghetti plots going to be messy! May have to move away from showing the individual members.
  17. olafminesaw
    I think that cell moving over North Wilkesboro is going to be the one to watch for the Triad. Hard to say if there will be more spread between cells as the HRRR depicts or if it will eventually form a fragmented line like the hires NAM.
  18. olafminesaw
    Going to be a couple more hours until storms initiate per the HRRR. Still a weak cap per the meso analysis, although eroded significantly since this morning.
  19. olafminesaw
    FWIW, I think the latest SPC discussion is a lot less enthusiastic about a higher end threat. Seems like CAPE values are lagging a bit and CAMS have less impressive parameters. Might be the sweet spot where we get some fun storms without having to worry too much about damage.
  20. olafminesaw
    Most heating will occur after 10 am anyway, with solar noon around 1:15. Lack of shear seems to be the biggest inhibitor out that way.
  21. olafminesaw
    Actually I think the opposite, cloud cover will linger East of 77, through around lunchtime for the triad (per the HRRR) that may limit CAPE somewhat, but areas west of 77 are about to get full sun.
  22. olafminesaw
    SPC is definitely highlighting the hail threat, citing the potential for isolated very large hail. The last hatched hail event from SPC was May 23, 2014.
  23. olafminesaw
    This makes more sense. Cool temps don't prevent foliage. It would have to be consistently dropping below freezing at night for temps to be the cause
  24. olafminesaw
    Nam sounding looking rather impressive for Monday.
  25. olafminesaw
    This June has a real possibility of making the top 10 coolest Junes going back to 1903 at GSO, even with the upcoming warmup. At the very least, it should beat out 2003, the coolest of this century.
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