Gotta iron out the vort track, strength etc. before it's even worth thinking about precip type issues. Always an issue when it comes to the big ones, which is why we don't mind an EPS-like solution
Can't afford to see much more amplification than what the GFS depicts. Which is why the Euro is good news. The only other model in the GFS camp is the icon, so I think the full range of outcomes is still on the table
Gotta love how cold that run is for most of central NC. What a bizarre storm track though. Seems like small changes could yield wildly different results
It's really encouraging to see multiple rolls of the dice. I don't think we can put much weight on any one of these modeled storm scenarios yet, but I can't help feeling like something will inevitably shake out in our favor
If you average the GFS, NAM, RGEM and Euro at 18z you end up with something decent, FWIW. Doesn't mean that we won't see models adjust North more, but with the current pattern, I wouldn't necessarily count on it