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olafminesaw

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Everything posted by olafminesaw

  1. olafminesaw
    NAM a tick back south again and quite amped
  2. olafminesaw
    If you average the GFS, NAM, RGEM and Euro at 18z you end up with something decent, FWIW. Doesn't mean that we won't see models adjust North more, but with the current pattern, I wouldn't necessarily count on it
  3. olafminesaw
    Yeah, and temps above freezing for the duration (outside any particular heavy rates.). Seems like relying on rates fails about twice as often as it succeeds, at least in the piedmont. Also, I'm not yet buying the amped up version the GFS is selling, which is our best shot at significant accumulation. The 18z GFS illustrates how an amped storm fails,by climbing too far North. It's a real tightrope. I suspect the hires NAM Is closest to how it plays out, but who knows?
  4. olafminesaw
    Seems someone somewhere will get something frozen.
  5. olafminesaw
    This shows what our best case scenario looks like more or less:
  6. olafminesaw
    The current threat falls more into the Tennessee valley sub I guess?
  7. olafminesaw
    Might take a while to resolve this one...
  8. olafminesaw
  9. olafminesaw
    From drought to Flooding if the GFS is to be believed. The euro is much more flat and progressive. Ensembles support the idea of more reasonable 1-2" of rain, which fits better with the current pattern
  10. olafminesaw
    Persistent SE ridge is persistent
  11. olafminesaw
    You know you're in for a long winter when Seattle has days and days of cold in snow in it's future
  12. olafminesaw
    It's beginning to look a lot like torch-mas
  13. olafminesaw
    They posted on Twitter they are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Bleh
  14. olafminesaw
    No significant changes on the 20z outlook
  15. olafminesaw
    Thank goodness the main threat area misses the Cedar rapids area.
  16. olafminesaw
    Awesome (new?) free product for Euro ensembles on the ECMWF website. Can't trust the ensembles to pick up on CAD, but worth looking at trends
  17. olafminesaw
    Definitely unusual to see such a consistent signal for CAD at this range. Definitely gets my attention, especially since exact storm track matters less with these setups.
  18. olafminesaw
    Yeet
  19. olafminesaw
    BWI - 9.3" DCA - 6.2" IAD - 11.1" RIC - 2.3" SBY - 3.4"
  20. olafminesaw
    A low of 37, pretty impressive sandwiched between two 70 degree+ days. Today has the potential for a 40 degree swing. Anyone have any data on how rare that is?
  21. olafminesaw
    And...gone, lol
  22. olafminesaw
    First decent fantasy storm of the year
  23. olafminesaw
    Lucy is licking her chops. It's going to be a loong winter. 2018 feels like another lifetime ago
  24. olafminesaw
    I've been watching the situation closely. Unfortunately, I think there will be too much dry air and not enough forcing which will prevent the column from saturating/cooling sufficiently.
  25. olafminesaw
    There's no reason Vegas can't start up some weather related bets... unfortunately my time machine doesn't actually take me forward in time. It works more like a database where I can pull up queries on specifically snowfall in the Mid-Atlantic region
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