olafminesaw

Running now. Looks like an improvement to me (further south, stronger ULL)

I agree! Not intending to be negative (should have drank my coffee before posting). Just trying to keep in perspective that we are still, even with positive trends more likely to miss on significant accumulations that cash in. But this is by far the best shot we've had this winter.

Overnight runs aren't necessarily all that great. Yes, models are currently converging towards an ideal track and evolution of The ULL. But not only is this very much subject to change, but the Euro shows, how even a pretty good outcome, which is like, 90% of the way to the GFS, just doesn't get the job done. Also the 0Z GFS tracked like 50 miles more inland which pushes the piedmont out of the good banding. 50 miles further east and you get something more like the Euro. It's delicate to say the least and we have at least 48 hours before we can really know what's going to happen.

Just gotta keep watching trends

The ICON is a solid hit. Looks a lot like the GFS, although a hair more progressive. A big improvement from last run

The first time we get NAMed, seems like a reasonable cutoff

The Euro is a much weaker/less dynamic system. If it is correct about the strength of the system, then absolutely. but if the GFS played out as depicted, central NC would be snow. I guess the problem we run into, is somewhere in between probably wouldn't cut it, at least east of 85.

I think the Mid-Atlantic forum would have to be melted down and sold for scrap if that happened and they got left out

Yep. Getting out of Powerball into scratch-off territory. Matching three numbers instead of 8

Not the worst

Needless to say, a more progressive look than the 12z GFS, with that track, is a near certainty

And the GFS takes that look and dials it up to 11. What a run. Gosh, this is so sensitive to small changes, I hate tracking things like this

Even with the exotic look and perfect thread the needle track...we still get 90% rain, followed by a little non accumulating snow showers.

Just gotta get that happy medium...

Mt Washington getting spicy:

If you want a taste of winter, just head on up to Mt Washington!

There's a lot of us

January finished 6.4 degrees above average in January, the warmest since 2006. Honestly this is pretty surprising, considering we didn't have many particularly warm days, and plenty of fairly chilly ones. Raleigh finished 8.2 degrees above average, the warmest since 1950, and the 7th warmest in 136 years of records!

With the way models have trended, the area to look for a surprise would be east of 95/south of rocky mount, to near the coast. Would require colder air than modeled, but I think we've seen that so far.Dry air will likely win out for the Piedmont

Alright. Which one of you did this?

So...six more weeks of 35 and rain!

Cold rain sounding to add to the depression pile. So close, but so far

So, I've seen the headlines about record cold in China. To what extent does Arctic air being dumped on the other side of the globe limit the potential for a cold air mass in NA? And is this driven/predicted by -PNA/ENSO, or other indices?