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olafminesaw

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Everything posted by olafminesaw

  1. olafminesaw
    Icky
  2. olafminesaw
    The NAM looks decent to me WRT handling the energy out west. We do need this to dig quite a bit more and/or phase sooner than the GFS to have a shot at significant accumulations.
  3. olafminesaw
    Big trend from 12z towards more digging of the trough
  4. olafminesaw
    Always hard to know if any change is the start of a trend or just random variability. But when one model takes a step towards the other and the other model doubles down, the odds certainly skew towards the start of a trend.
  5. olafminesaw
    Looking remarkably similar through 75
  6. olafminesaw
    GFS largely unchanged through 48
  7. olafminesaw
    Looks to be more in the GFS camp still (dare I say another step towards the GFS?).
  8. olafminesaw
    I guess one of the biggest struggles is not really knowing what something halfway in-between these two solutions would even look like. I suspect mostly rain for most with a thump of snow on the back end, with the low tracking over the Apps and phasing late.
  9. olafminesaw
    Kind reminds me of cases of phasing in the past, where we had two widely different outcomes depending on if it happens or not. But this is like, in the reverse?
  10. olafminesaw
    Alright, the Euro is running. Ladies and gentlemen: get your big big/girl pants on, it's going to be a wild ride.
  11. olafminesaw
    Yeah, temps are super marginal, but that would change if there was more moisture. GEFS takes a step in that direction, so it's not too far from being a decent little event for the northern piedmont.
  12. olafminesaw
    The GFS legit has 50-60 mph gusts and 25 mph sustained as the storm pulls away and starts dropping powder. There'd be 3 foot drifts. What a weenie run for the ages.
  13. olafminesaw
    While we wait: This is a silly sounding. A weenie's nightmare
  14. olafminesaw
    The WPC leans more towards the GFS, FWIW
  15. olafminesaw
    The WPC agrees, the players are in place, it's hurry up and wait time
  16. olafminesaw
    I'm definitely slightly conflicted, trying to travel around the holidays. The 6z GFS drops a few inches on us the night before we leave (probably freezes solid under), snows on Christmas in PA, then we get dumped on again when trying to travel back. If that happened we'd probably be staying home for Christmas.
  17. olafminesaw
    If I was a betting man, I'd put my money on the storm behind the storm being better for us. That's usually how it works out anyway.
  18. olafminesaw
    Y'all. Take a deep breath and step away from the models for a bit. We won't really know much about what's going to happen for another few days
  19. olafminesaw
    4 run trend
  20. olafminesaw
    I know I know, this one's free to access, otherwise I would of course have picked higher of kuchera or 10:1
  21. olafminesaw
  22. olafminesaw
  23. olafminesaw
    Hmm, getting back in the game again as alluded to yesterday?
  24. olafminesaw
    Now hitting the south end of town
  25. olafminesaw
    It's frustrating, because at the surface this looks like it's setting up for something really good. Then it gets suppressed to oblivion
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