Jump to content

olafminesaw

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    3,054

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by olafminesaw

  1. olafminesaw
    Hmm
  2. olafminesaw
    NAM a step towards the Euro, as far as having a dry slot east of the foothills (to start anyway, then it starts to fill in)
  3. olafminesaw
    The Euro definitely moves quicker and hugs the coast less than the NAM, which is one reason for the discrepancy. I think the hires NAM works as a decent middle ground (although I'd definitely think less than it depicts Is likely)
  4. olafminesaw
    GFS looks, warm, but just glad it didn't jump north. Time to start relying on hires models.
  5. olafminesaw
    Loooong range HRRR looks nice. An initial thump like this would go a long way towards dropping surface temps (even factoring in the HRRR's cold bias) may get sleetier than expected.
  6. olafminesaw
    6z models bring the moisture but seem pretty warm
  7. olafminesaw
    NAM looking north at 45
  8. olafminesaw
    Much different system but:
  9. olafminesaw
    I feel like the Euro likes to overdo precip in the medium range sometimes, but wowzers. Lock that puppy in
  10. olafminesaw
    Becoming a lot less relevant, but:
  11. olafminesaw
    If he's correct, we'll see a response in the models by 0z. May have to do with convective feedback. Definitely a storm where the hires models will be super helpful.
  12. olafminesaw
    Yeah, it seems do be drier with the initial surge of moisture, but then the low kinda backs in towards the coast, allowing moisture to back-build. Could be good for ensuring some snowfall across the board, with less WAA and more consistent banding (after a potential initial thump)
  13. olafminesaw
    RGEM looks really good for the piedmont/mountains. Slower than the rest of guidance, but pretty wet
  14. olafminesaw
    Exactly what I like to see 3 days out
  15. olafminesaw
    Bowling ball incoming
  16. olafminesaw
    I'm not liking the borderline temp profiles. Seems pretty rate dependent. But, a good chance we see some snow for some of the storm at least, but has that miller-B screw-job kind of look, where the moisture dries up and the cold air never really gets established. Chance of an inch in Greensboro: 50%
  17. olafminesaw
    Not bad
  18. olafminesaw
    Mostly sleet south of the VA border
  19. olafminesaw
    Yeah, not too thrilled about a thread the needle setup at the front end of a pattern change. And yet, the best chance of the year. Mountains and central VA, a different story though.
  20. olafminesaw
  21. olafminesaw
    GSO has now surpassed 2003 to become the second wettest year on record. 1.76" is necessary to surpass 2018. Feels like a much more tame year than 2018, but consistent rainfall had pulled us close. The GEFS has ~1.2" through the end of the year
  22. olafminesaw
    Also seems like the models spitting out high ice totals, like the RGEM, do wonky things with convection.
  23. olafminesaw
    The HRRR is picking up on this is well... Could be interesting, with some pretty wild dynamics. Short lived window though, just before going into a dry slot
  24. olafminesaw
    FWIW, the hires nam was 3-5 degrees too warm this morning
  25. olafminesaw
    Dewpoints on the HRRR are about 6 degrees (mid 20s) colder on the HRRR than the hires nam (low 30s) after sunset Tuesday
×
×
  • Create New...