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olafminesaw

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Everything posted by olafminesaw

  1. olafminesaw
  2. olafminesaw
    And the 12z NAM confirms this
  3. olafminesaw
    Yeah, gotta wait for the coastal to take over to get decent rates unfortunately, but at that point it may be pulling away
  4. olafminesaw
    Radar starting to blossom nicely in central TN
  5. olafminesaw
    Yeah, the NAM twins are not really much different, does more to confirm 2-4" is quite attainable
  6. olafminesaw
    The HRRR is mostly useless outside 12 hrs. Even then it runs warm.
  7. olafminesaw
    The advisory says 1-3", but my point forecast is only has a 50% chance of precip. Kinda odd.
  8. olafminesaw
    Euro takes a step North
  9. olafminesaw
    The HRW models all came north from 0z
  10. olafminesaw
    Yeah, better to flip to sleet for a while and get good rates than be fringed. Obviously down towards SC is a different story.
  11. olafminesaw
    Looking at soundings, the NAM sugguests sleet could threaten to push as far north as the Triad
  12. olafminesaw
    The NAM looks a touch North and a touch slower to bring the precip at hr 24
  13. olafminesaw
    For the SREF, I would look at QPF as well, ad it tends to run quite warm .5" QPF for Greensboro
  14. olafminesaw
    We have the warm nose to harp on instead (for good reason)
  15. olafminesaw
    This has a feel like much like the best of the Hampton Roads storms I've experienced, just further south with the strong high, and fed by the robust southern stream that had been featured all winter. All that to say, a dynamic developing system with cold air over the top goes a long way.
  16. olafminesaw
    My call for Greensboro: <1" 25% 1-3" 50% 4"+ 25%
  17. olafminesaw
    RAH hasn't updated snow maps since 4 pm yesterday. It will be interesting to see how conservative they will be
  18. olafminesaw
  19. olafminesaw
    Says it all
  20. olafminesaw
    Small improvements on the GFS through 42
  21. olafminesaw
    Looks more surpressed at 45. Not a huge change, we'll see how it plays out
  22. olafminesaw
    Euro looks like a small step in the right direction
  23. olafminesaw
    Looks like an uptick in the mean actually, across the piedmont
  24. olafminesaw
    Kinda embarrassing that RAH still has 20% chance of precip for my location
  25. olafminesaw
    The ICON takes a step in the wrong direction. Looks pretty anemic. I've never really found it to be a reliable model though.
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