olafminesaw

This one must have taken some extra time to write A northern-stream and southern-stream shortwave will phase over the MS Valley on Friday night, with an associated surface cyclone moving northeast from the Deep South, deepening to 990-995 mb by the time it reaches north-central NC early Saturday morning. Deep southerly flow from this system will help draw plenty of low-level moisture from the Atlantic, with PW values of 1.25-1.75 inches. Thus bands of WAA-induced showers will move in from the south on Friday evening and Friday night, when POPs increase to likely and then categorical over much of the area. Not expecting any thunder during this period given a complete lack of instability with a low-level inversion in place. However, this changes in the late overnight hours into early Saturday morning, when southerly low-level flow really starts to increase as the surface low approaches and deepens. Thus outside of the far NW, temperatures and dew points will start to rise through the 50s and even lower-to-mid-60s, with MLCAPE reaching as high as 300-500 J/kg. Meanwhile a squall line associated with a strong cold front will be moving through the area around 09z to 15z. While instability will not be too impressive due to the time of day and widespread precipitation, some damaging winds and isolated tornadoes are still possible with the squall line given the very strong low/mid level wind fields and rich low-level moisture. The one exception is across the Triad region, where the cold front should probably arrive early enough to shut off any instability and threat of storms. The most favorable location for severe weather is in the eastern Sandhills and southern Coastal Plain, which will have the longest opportunity for WAA and daytime heating before the cold front moves through. This is also where 0-1 km shear and 0-6 km shear look to be at least 40-50 kts and 60-80 kts, respectively, which is more than enough to support supercells and tornadoes. Thus the SPC has introduced an enhanced risk for severe storms in the far SE, and has expanded the slight risk to include the US-1 corridor and points east. The slower the frontal timing the better the severe threat as it would give these areas more time to destabilize. Total rainfall of around 0.75-1.25 inches is expected on average across central NC. This isn`t enough to cause any significant flooding concerns, but some localized urban and poor drainage flooding can`t be ruled out. Widespread precipitation will come to an end from west to east with the passage of the cold front on Saturday morning. However, our region will be in a strong pressure gradient between the rapidly- deepening 970-980 mb surface cyclone just off the coast New England and high pressure building over eastern TX and the lower MS Valley. Thus strong NW winds gusting as high as 30-40+ mph are expected during the day and into the evening. This will result in temperatures initially in the 50s and 60s early Friday morning falling into the 30s and 40s through the day. As the mid/upper trough swings through on Saturday afternoon, models show potential for a few wet snowflakes to fall across the NE Piedmont and especially the northern Coastal Plain, as temperatures aloft will be falling to well below freezing. However, with surface temperatures still above freezing during the afternoon and having been well above freezing over the past week, ground temperatures should be too warm for any accumulations to take place

The hires NAM has temps falling from 52 at 5 am to 37 at 7 am. I'm suspicious that the cold will hang back, which will prevent all but a token flake or two. Anything that does fall will be unlikely to stick due to our usual March factors that shall not be named. Still, a little white rain will be a welcome sight before spring comes out in full force

Some indications of a snowflake or two Saturday morning/midday for the western/northern Piedmont. The wind chill would make Saturday afternoon frigid by January standards.

Looking forward to next winter ready? CPC to probs to dash your hopes and dreams (ok, I realize this is meaningless)

I found this video go be super helpful in understanding the situation. Covers everything but the ideological side of things

I've seen a ton of different takes on what the true motive behind the invasion of Ukraine is. My current impression is it has mostly to do with distrust and resentment of the West as well as a desire to be taken seriously as a nation (which also looks back at the USSR's former "glory" and even beyond). What's your take on what motivates Putin's actions?

Rather impressive soundings last night and this morning

Wedge in all her Glory

Yikes! They also reported 26 and zr two hours later and an hour after that 33 and heavy rain.The corresponding sounding at 0z.

I think we can officially declare winter over after Sunday. No signs of cold before the 10th, at which point we enter really rare territory for snow

Too progressive and leaves the energy behind. Too much ridging out West. Need more amplitude with the wave and for everything to slow down enough to get separation from the wave before it

Right, it's tough to get good sampling of the sun being 27 million degrees and all

Still some hope for flakes, but the warm/whiff scenario is looking way more likely with the overnight runs.

Yeah I'd favor DC here. Odds of being jackpot zone Whiff/too warm 25% NC/Southern VA 20% DC 40% NYC 15%

North of the OP, but not terrible either

I wouldn't call it cold chasing moisture necessarily (and all the issues that come along with that). It's just that the storm is too far north. A really good run though, with the way things had been trending.

GEFS looks decent, but I think this is a 10-20% type proposition

It's the real deal guys...

Gusts of over 50 mph tonight on the HRRR. In the mid 40s in my point and click

Meanwhile in the Pacific, the bomb cyclone bringing our pattern change is forecasted by the GFS to drop 63 mb, from 994 to 931 in just 30 hours. Wild stuff

Keep in mind that's a seven day mean, so lots of possibilities for deeper cold within that window. Of course, getting the cold and moisture to link up is the key (not counting on it) but the orientation of the cold is pretty ideal. Boone has lots of reason for optimism, and Climo makes any wintery precip a long shot for the Piedmont

Nice radiation cooling this morning and a very heavy frost. Down to 21 at the airport, which is nearly a50 degree drop from 36 hours earlier

RGEM is quite wet but questionable thermals. Which is odd because I thought it had a cold bias