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olafminesaw

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Everything posted by olafminesaw

  1. olafminesaw
  2. olafminesaw
    Honestly, if we could just get some storms. But mega ridge for weeks. At least the Midwest get's the occasional Derecho in this kind of pattern
  3. olafminesaw
    Someone's probably getting 10"
  4. olafminesaw
    How unusual is it for the highest tornado threat to line up with the highest flash flood threat?
  5. olafminesaw
  6. olafminesaw
    I'm going TO Canada
  7. olafminesaw
  8. olafminesaw
    And 15% tor. Kind shocked TBH. It's been a while since the last one in the region I think.
  9. olafminesaw
    Thanks, but snow trophies melt, and I lost the one from last year. How will I be able to impress the hot chicks without the trophies to prove my forecasting prowess?
  10. olafminesaw
    And you're checking to see if all the balls are fully inflated.
  11. olafminesaw
    Seems awfully wedgy this morning for severe. But there's time to clear out a bit I suppose.
  12. olafminesaw
    The 18z Nam dewpoint is running 10 degrees above actuals for this afternoon in the triad
  13. olafminesaw
    Everyone tommorow
  14. olafminesaw
    Kinda strange how to our south is looking so much better. Goes to show what a dynamic system can do
  15. olafminesaw
    Below freezing in the middle of the day too in the heaviest snow axis. Are there any analogs for this?
  16. olafminesaw
    Lolwat
  17. olafminesaw
  18. olafminesaw
    Pretty much the worst possible track for Beira, a city of 500k.
  19. olafminesaw
    Right, I had those numbers flipped. It was an auto-generated screen name generated by Runescape from a long time ago, I used it for a lot of accounts. I moved to NC this fall. I had been going to school in Newport News and I lived in Chantilly 3 years ago. I nearly didn't enter this year because I no longer lived in the region, but someone tagged me, since I won last year.
  20. olafminesaw
    Also Stormpc would overtake me with any amount at DCA
  21. olafminesaw
    It seems historically I am more likely than not to hold on for the win, but my margin for error is narrow. Odds of at least .1" of snow in the second half of March/April (past 30 years): DCA (April): 23% (6.6%) IAD: 51% (13%) BWI: 43% (10%) RIC: 23% (10%) Odds of at least 1" of snowfall DCA: 13% IAD: 40% BWI: 20% RIC: 10%
  22. olafminesaw
    Really strange how tightly clustered the ensembles are. Kinda makes me suspicious.
  23. olafminesaw
    A week out trends are mostly meaningless, although for the next 3ish days I'd like to keep it South. We just might beat Boston this winter.
  24. olafminesaw
    The hires nam legit drops 6" of snow in an hour with this band. I don't think I've ever seen that even modeled.
  25. olafminesaw
    It generally has a cold bias, but the ICON looks nice. I'm not counting on that first push of moisture though.
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