olafminesaw

Much more reasonable FV3 map, to balance out the general clownishness around here. I would take this to the bank. Of course, we still have an eternity for things to go wrong, never forget that.

Still, seems like an improvement, with the possibility of a transfer, much like the FV3

Much faster, which should be better, with the positioning of the High

There's also a lot of borderline soundings, where his algorithm is counting as snow, but there's no point splitting hairs at this point. When it comes down to forecasting closer to the event, it's probably better not to rely on snow maps, but do qpf frame by frame with precip type based on soundings.

Substantially stronger High at 138, bodes well.

So many days to go...

A nasty ice storm on the back end. 8 hours or so of fairly heavy freezing rain, with temps in the upper 20s for the triad.

Wunderground is calling for 1-3" of snow on Wednesday. I guess a dusting to an inch or so is probably the ceiling, with good rates needing to overcome temps in the mid thirties. The timing is perfect on the GFS, so that would help. Any snow is a win in December. I just moved here, so I'm not sure about local climo, but it would seem, the mountains often would steal snow with this kind of little clipperish thing. Edit: Although Now I see it has more to do with the Coastal low, which seems like reasonably optimistic set up.

Sure, why not DCA: 17.3" BWI: 19.4" IAD: 23.5" RIC: 9.8" SBY: 8.7"

Nasty

If the eye were less ragged we'd be talking about yutu returning to its former glory. There's pretty good model agreement now on a track similar to Mangkhut. I feel for the small communities trying to rebuild there, if it does indeed make landfall (hopefully with some substantial weakening beforehand).

This gas station awning is blue shed 2.0:

3" per hour rain rates

Yeah, it's a little out of it's range though. If it sticks to it's guns through 6z, then I'm all in for 60-70 ( east of the triad anyway).

And when you get run to run consistency from the HRRR, 9 times out of ten, it is going to be approximately correct. That probably means "only" gusts in the 40-60 mph range, but it's something which we wouldn't even be considering if it weren't for hires models.

I don't think I've seen a troll have this much success since way back around the time the internet troll was invented.

It's funny to me how much hype there was surrounding Florence, even after we knew for sure it wasn't going to be a big deal apart from some flooding. This should be equivalent or worse, and I've hardly heard a thing about it. Blame the media I guess.

Most are weak, but wow, what a lot of couplets.

Quiet around here, but perhaps what will in many ways be the worst part of the storm, still to come.

Winds should remain more or less where they are right now for a long while. Flooding rains may be a concern, but totals over 6" should stay to our south and the higher terrain.

Seems like land interaction forced it south, and now it's readjusting back to the expecting heading.

Full landfall loop https://i.imgur.com/x5kwJJm.gifv

Not the highest quality construction on that one