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olafminesaw

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Everything posted by olafminesaw

  1. olafminesaw
    At the same time, we saw models bit by bit, speed up the timing of the changeover to sleet. Of course this had mostly go do with the storm slowing down and the ULL cutting west of the Apps. I do think in general, the models had a reasonable grasp on the temp profiles in the end. Point is, I think most of the time outcomes have more to do with the track of the low, strength of the high, etc. than bad physics of the model
  2. olafminesaw
  3. olafminesaw
    Ice for many. Still, very long duration
  4. olafminesaw
    Just keeps reloading
  5. olafminesaw
  6. olafminesaw
    Looks like it's developing something in the gulf for the weekend though
  7. olafminesaw
    Yeah, a big advantage to these type of setups is it's pretty easy to score a light to moderate snow event. A big hit, however is a bit more of a thread the needle scenerio. If a lp system develops along the boundary and deepens, it can bring in warm mid level air and cause mixing issues along the southern fringes. There is a fairly narrow jackpot zone, and the northern fringe struggles with dry air, but gets nice cold powder
  8. olafminesaw
    Yeah, just really jumped all over the place. Showed the range of outcomes which was helpful I think.
  9. olafminesaw
    The icon looks good for a long duration moderate event for the climo favored regions of the central NC Piedmont (the Icon is trash I know, but better than discussing, well... not weather)
  10. olafminesaw
    Considering how the GFS ensembles have a tendency not to vary too much from the op, it's encouraging to see a bunch of members with decent hits
  11. olafminesaw
    Yeah, probably just a light glaze once we get into the dry slot
  12. olafminesaw
    What a sounding. Classic sleet storm in the Triad. Going to take ages to melt this glacier
  13. olafminesaw
    A bit of a dry slot for western NC. Somewhat expected given the eastward progression of the low, but a rather stark cutoff
  14. olafminesaw
    It's crazy how big some of the pellets are too. Nearly pea sized
  15. olafminesaw
    As expected, p-type maps are not to be trusted. The majority of the freezing rain zone is falling as sleet
  16. olafminesaw
    Wow, that's the most bullish I've ever seen them at this range
  17. olafminesaw
    Yeah...it seems kgso hasn't been reporting sleet. It's like their ip key is broken or something, lol
  18. olafminesaw
    I appreciate your insight. Definitely just kidding around here. Hard to get excited about something 6 days away when it's currently snowing outside, but wow, who thought we'd get such a stellar pattern out of this winter
  19. olafminesaw
    Is this the new banter thread?
  20. olafminesaw
    Changeover cometh
  21. olafminesaw
    Definitely seems to be trending towards more sleet
  22. olafminesaw
    Hard to believe it will flip to sleet in a couple hours after the dewpoint dropped to 8 before onset
  23. olafminesaw
    Yeah, we've seen this play out on the models. A shift to the south initially has sometimes resulted in a more inland track. Just depends on how our pesky vortex to the North behaves
  24. olafminesaw
    If I were a betting man, I'd bet on higher sleet totals and lower qpf, leading to only .1-.2" acreation in the triad
  25. olafminesaw
    Hate to see the depth of the wedge become shallower, I think as the storm track has trended somewhat more inland. I'm starting to doubt that many will see more sleet than ZR, but it's kinda a coin flip at this point
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