olafminesaw

6z blend of models

Sleet drifts! Sounds kinda epic

Winds ripping at 70 kts out of the SE at 850 mb

I was looking at 6z by accident, but my point still stands (even more so)

There's some good looking panels, but posting the hr 84 NAM is hazerdous to the health of weenies. Main takeaway is a good shift south. Hopefully the rest of 12z guidance follows the NAM's lead (we all know it rarely happens that way)

A piece of our energy is coming ashore in the Pac NW, we wait and watch for development over the Canadian plains later today

P-type maps show freezing rain, but mostly sleet, only freezing rain on the fringes (also, those dynamics, wowzers!)

Raging sleet storm for many

RAH point forecast for Greensboro still calling for all snow (5.5" on the hourly graph). But the discussion acknowledges the ice threat: Saturday night, little rain is expected. The bulk of the precipitation will fall as snow overnight, with sleet/freezing rain eventually mixing in across the south as warmer air begins to move in aloft. The push of warm air begins in earnest after sunrise Sunday, which should limit the areal extent of snow by Sunday afternoon. Rain will eventually make its way in along the I-95 corridor, but farther to the west, sleet and/or freezing rain will be the dominant precipitation types, depending on the depths of the warm layer aloft and cold layer at the surface. The GFS and European are now in better spatial agreement with the dry slot moving directly across central NC, reducing the potential for wraparound snowfall Sunday night, although the ECMWF is now about 6 hours slower than the GFS. A few days ago, this system looked as if it would simply be a rain/snow event. Over the last 72 hours, the westward trend of the surface low moving farther inland makes a widespread significant icing event appear more and more likely west of I-95.

New product I think

Yeah...the Euro is no longer king. The GFS has been pretty consistent for better, or for worse. Still a little big of time for some positive trends, but, unfortunately south of 85 seems to be mostly out of the game for big snow

It may not aid in terms of preventing or delaying a changeover, but I think it helps with the duration and intensity of the initial thump. Also helps places like Atlanta substantially

Icon still south of most guidance at 18z

Pertinent notes from the MA sub:

Yeah, the uptick has more to do with eliminating outliers than anything I think. The same general idea as 6z

Yeah, definitely gotta wait for the hires NAM and even than look at soundings and make a judgement call on which way the precip type will go. Seems like this will fall more on the sleet side of the storm, especially with the dynamics (but could flip back and forth based on rates)

Surprise! Euro holding back the energy more at 78

The 12z Icon lines up pretty much with the Euro

I also feel like the temp gradient will lead to some pretty intense snowfall rates along and west of the low track, especially with those dews in place

The gefs mean keeps temps below 28 degrees for the duration in GSO. Which I think is notable, since I would expect it to under do the wedge

NAM hangs back the energy more this run. I wouldn't put to much weight too if yet, but it does continue the trend. It is South of the GFS, however

Brings to mind all the hurricanes where the SE ridge was under-modeled and the storm came south. Totally different and I'm sure the model biased are not the same, but looking at that panel it's hard not to think the storm will come South.

Popping in from the SE forum, it's wild how the fate of central NC lines up so much with the fate of this sub forum. Can't think of very many other analogs in that way, other than Jan 2000.