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olafminesaw

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Everything posted by olafminesaw

  1. olafminesaw
    Probably Autism. Mostly. Speaking as someone who can't help but be a little disappointed, and wishes I wasn't, but is drawn to extreme weather like a fly to a light.
  2. olafminesaw
    Mesmerizing
  3. olafminesaw
    IMHO it's better to risk having traffic jams two days before a category 4 makes landfall in VA beach, than to have people disregard evacuations next time around.
  4. olafminesaw
    And here's what I learned:
  5. olafminesaw
    It may partly be a function of a different part of the eye being exposed, but it appears that Flo has taken a big step to the West over the past few hours.
  6. olafminesaw
    The whole NE half of the storm looks quite healthy, especially in the last few frames. if shear lets up somewhat, I don't see why it wouldn't restrengthen somewhat to a legit cat 3.
  7. olafminesaw
  8. olafminesaw
    Jacksonville would be decimated if the GFS is how it played out.
  9. olafminesaw
    There's no dry air to speak of that may be ingested on landfall, which is rather remarkable.
  10. olafminesaw
    It has 30 straight hours of 1.5" per hour or higher rates. I can't imagine that can happen...
  11. olafminesaw
    Does. Does that say 93"?
  12. olafminesaw
    I saw a, blow Florence away with fans, campaign on Facebook. I guess it's working, because models are trying their best to keep it offshore.
  13. olafminesaw
    Convection is starting to fire west of the core where it's been sheared, in addition to the impressive convection on the western side of the eyewall
  14. olafminesaw
    24 hour precipitation forecast:
  15. olafminesaw
    The Euro run would be terrifying for people who decide to stay in Wilmington. Hours upon hours of the eyewall wobbling towards or away from the city, eventually making it onshore. Wilmington gets about 48 hours of hurricane strength gusts. Not to mention the surge and over two feet of rain.
  16. olafminesaw
    Headed for Savannah at 120
  17. olafminesaw
    Doesn't appear to make landfall this run, but drift just offshore
  18. olafminesaw
    Comparison of GFS, UKMET and Euro (0z) Compari
  19. olafminesaw
    Bad news for Wilmington. It's quite plausible that Wilmington could get the RFQ, and at a trajectory perpendicular to the coast. It's too early to speculate on exact landfall of course, but earlier I really thought Wilmington had dodged a bullet.
  20. olafminesaw
    Are there any mechanisms which might cause the precip shield to eventually get displaced from the center like what happened with Mathew? I remember that not being modeled well at all, but it kept shifting more inland.
  21. olafminesaw
    There's swath of 20-30" of rain near the coast on the GFS. The Euro and UKMET had totals over 40" . The freshwater flooding alone is going to be worse than Mathew somewhere.
  22. olafminesaw
    Great analysis here (It continues in the comments below the tweet): https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1039404118052237312
  23. olafminesaw
    The visible loop shows the eye just about cleared out apart from some Cirrus.
  24. olafminesaw
    To kick off the 0z models, the ICON takes a pretty decent shift to the left with a landfall around Cape Lookout.
  25. olafminesaw
    Well, part of the problem has to be that no one discusses tropical unless it poses a threat to the US. So if the unwritten rules haven't been written before things get crazy, there are basically no rules
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