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olafminesaw

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Everything posted by olafminesaw

  1. olafminesaw
    Models are converging reasonably well considering we're still 4.5 days out. I feel pretty good about the spread at the moment, with the caveat that a moderate/heavy all snow event is definitely a bit of a long shot
  2. olafminesaw
    Duration is the biggest factor. Most significant ice storms are at least 12 hours of precip and usually not particularly heavy, but consistent. So overrunning events tend to be the highest potential
  3. olafminesaw
    The cold push is pretty stout, with a dry airmass (this a few hours before onset) This would yield a wet bulb temp of 30 degrees with cold continuing to push in
  4. olafminesaw
    Jan 16th part 2 (but with a better track)
  5. olafminesaw
    ICON looks Euro-like FWIW. Decent hit of snow for Greenville NC
  6. olafminesaw
    Some of the disagreement about in-situ CAD comes down to different Climo dictating the outcome. Pretty good setup for ice in the Western Piedmont/SC upstate (although probably more moderate than major ice storm), much more marginal for our many wake county posters
  7. olafminesaw
    Yesterday the placement was looking better. Just look at the trend on the GEFS. Any amount of amplification will push the cold out in a hurry. If the low can slow down and remain to our South like the Euro depicts however, mid levels may not torch so much and we may stay frozen (at least in the Western Piedmont)
  8. olafminesaw
    Not a terrible place to be though. Just need a low to pop
  9. olafminesaw
    Yeah, for sure. Some similarities to the big mid month storm, although not as amplified and less surface cold to work with
  10. olafminesaw
    Amplification is what causes the warming of the mid-levels though, so it's a delicate balance
  11. olafminesaw
    Euro gets frozen precip in the area, but about 24 hours later, so not nearly as good a look with the high having retreated to the east significantly more than the GFS
  12. olafminesaw
    One thing to keep in mind is the radical difference between the way the GFS and Euro handle the next frontal system (at around hour 84). I have a feeling the Euro won't look anything like the GFS due to the downstream implications. It's going to take a while to iron this one out
  13. olafminesaw
    I don't see this setup flipping to rain for most of the Piedmont
  14. olafminesaw
    I wouldn't say I'm excited, but this is a weather board and I'm interested in weather, regardless of the degree to which I enjoy it. Ice storms are fascinating from a meteorological perspective, even if they are the saddest of frozen precip types
  15. olafminesaw
    The 0z Icon also has a pretty significant snow to ice storm (mostly ice)
  16. olafminesaw
    About a quarter of the GFS ensembles show big mixy hits. Most of the rest are pretty suppressed or the energy cuts to our west and it's too warm
  17. olafminesaw
    The Euro on board with the storm idea. Model consensus at the moment is mid-levels will be a struggle, but as others have said, CAD may rear it's ugly head
  18. olafminesaw
    I know RDU Climo sucks, but crazy that 3"+ storms only occur about every 2-3 years. Question: how did you compile the data for multi day storms? I've been meaning to do a similar analysis for Greensboro, but only find day snowfall data out there.
  19. olafminesaw
    In other news...
  20. olafminesaw
    Seems the long range favors mixy slopfests. We shall see. This is the time of year where marginal temp events rarely work out and the wedge always wins
  21. olafminesaw
    Coming down pretty good in Greensboro, despite light radar returns
  22. olafminesaw
    Wetbulb temp of 35 in Greensboro. Just waiting for the precip to arrive
  23. olafminesaw
    I think the perception about Greensboro is drive by the fact that we do tend to cash in to some degree on most events effecting this board and tend to do well when Raleigh flips to rain. However, a lot of times, we end up stuck on the fringes, whether it's southern VA that gets the jackpot, or Fayetville.
  24. olafminesaw
    Should start to see development between 4-5 up your way. But lots of Virga until the atmosphere gets saturated
  25. olafminesaw
    Are we quite sure it's not an opening into the underworld?
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