olafminesaw

Seems like the type of storm that could tighten/strengthen over land

Someone is going to get pummeled (3"+) but more likely the western Piedmont/mountains and drought regions may be much more modest in the rain department.

Should be the hottest day of the year, for a while, although heating up slower than the NWS forecast. Could be a contender for earliest hottest day of the year even (although I'm sure we'll probably hit mid-upper 90s again at some point) Also, it's kinda silly how when there's high cirrus clouds, it's just classified as overcast and the NWS page has an icon showing thick cloud cover.

Although I know the GFS is smoking something...Definitely potential there if something does spin up. Of course with more troughs moving into the gulf this time of year, potential Is more limited, but I could definitely see a strong hybrid type system somewhere.

Hmmm

A bit of a couplet possibly developing

You see the wedge eroding on visible. Pretty neat with mid level clouds moving west to east and low level clouds/fog moving south to north

Purely based on radar, i'm thinking this zone will be a primary threat area (behavior of early convection and of course areas that clear can be indicators)

A lot of cloud cover moving into the primary threat regions. Typically limits potential. Probably for the best. Although FWIW, the HRRR has clearing pushing in from the south, between 10 am (Charlotte) and 2 pm (VA border)

Fairly strongly worded disco for a d2 slight risk from SPC. Just depends on capping will allow development while instability is higher. ..NC/VA... Low 60s dewpoints will likely be in place across much of NC early Friday morning, with higher values near the coast. This moist air mass is forecast advect northward throughout the day amid the southerly low-level flow ahead of the approaching outflow, with the northern extent of this better moisture acting as an effective warm front. Isolated thunderstorm development along this warm front is possible, where wind profiles support supercells. Damaging wind gusts and a tornado or two are possible with these storms if updrafts can mature. After this initial isolated threat, more widespread thunderstorm development is possible as the outflow moves into the region amid mid 60s dewpoints and moderate buoyancy. Damaging wind gusts within any more organized bowing segments are the primary severe risk.

Although it's been hot the past couple days, it's certainly been nice to soak up the sun. Let's lock in a stretch of weather like this with highs in the low 80s, dews in the 50s in mid July.

Probabilities for the Piedmont:

Hmmm

I would imagine there are quite a few similarities to a typical Carolina Alley outbreak, just further south.

I was able to find two cases: Galveston:https://www.tornadotalk.com/galveston-tx-tornadoes-september-12-1961/ Georgia: https://www.weather.gov/chs/TornadoOutbreak-May2008 There's a possible third in Tampa but I can't seem to find any info on it (I'm not counting the 1966 long tracker as F4 damage for that one was more inland). There are others that are more inland (one West of New Orleans) but I decided to research only truly coastal locations.

Is there any kind of precedent for violent tornadoes in coastal cities? I feel like they are extremely rare (the recent New Orleans tornado nearly meeting the criteria).

Covers a more populated region this time around, including Atlanta

The most classic a hook echo, supercell, cc combo I've seen east of the Appalachians. Holy cow that's not good

51 mph gust at GSO. Consistently gusting in the mid 40s with this slug of moisture

I've experienced more wimpy tropical storm warnings than what we've been seeing this morning (wind gust to 40 at GSO). Won't take much convection to mix 50-60 mph gusts to the surface. I'm not anticipating 60 +, but could be fun (although these high shear low CAPE squall lines always seem to be underwhelming)

As per usual at this range, some question as to whether discrete supercells will form ahead of the main line. Regardless, unusual to see the word "outbreak" this early in the SPC disco.

Looks like the only EF3+ tornado in New Orleans going back to 1980 was in 2017 (an EF3). That damage definitely looks like it could be in that territory. https://youtu.be/CygyZrLEyTo

About as incredible of nighttime footage as I've seen https://www.facebook.com/ScotPilieWx/videos/651457422801824/

More discussion on the Central/Western Sub-forum. It's kinda awkwardly between subs, especially with not many posters in AL/MS