olafminesaw
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Everything posted by olafminesaw
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Says it all
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Small improvements on the GFS through 42
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Looks more surpressed at 45. Not a huge change, we'll see how it plays out
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Euro looks like a small step in the right direction
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Looks like an uptick in the mean actually, across the piedmont
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Kinda embarrassing that RAH still has 20% chance of precip for my location
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The ICON takes a step in the wrong direction. Looks pretty anemic. I've never really found it to be a reliable model though.
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Only if it's right about how amplified the system is
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Earlier onset for northern NC too. Could make for a messy commute home for many
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Definitely a but further north and quicker to develop the low
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Yeah, it's definitely an odd one to track for this reason (no clear trends overall). The 12z suite will hopefully give us a clearer picture
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I think this is a reasonable look at what will happen, although for most, I'd be hesitant to go all in on 3"+. 1-3" seems reasonable for Greensboro, and I'd lean more towards the low end
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Looks pretty similar to the NAM.
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I would wait to see what kind of trend there is on the EPS before bemoaning surpression. Remember, we're still 6 days out.
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There's a range of temps at which dendrites grow (which create very high ratio snows). Ideally you want the area of greatest lift, to fall within this zone to get dendrites. On tropical tidbits, the orange bars on the left tell you how much lift there is at that level.
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Southeast Sanitarium - A Place to Vent
olafminesaw replied to Jonathan's topic in Southeastern States
I don't have any expectations so it's kinda fun. It's like my team's down 2 touchdowns with a minute left. Might as well see what happens -
The great lakes low kills it, but the trough is a little deeper This time around, so there's that
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Finally, a mythical unicorn storm like the unicorn storms of old. I would say probably just due to the tendency of the Euro to spin up deep lows out of nowhere. The trough is digging like crazy, the only way this thing works:
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It got suppressed, which isn't such a bad thing, but not an especially cold airmass.
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Whats that old reliable wives tail again? 10 days from thunder in the winter means more thunder? Seems about right.
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Stupid wave killing mountains.
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It appears to be making progress. Almost to Greensboro.
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Yeah, and there's a chance it won't push north lessening the severe threat. Kinda interesting how the precip is back-building along the front
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Southeast Sanitarium - A Place to Vent
olafminesaw replied to Jonathan's topic in Southeastern States
No more drought is the "new normal".Yee -
The 6z models backed off a bit on rain totals. 2-4" has been a good forecast for a day or two now and still seems reasonable, although I wouldn't be surprised to see 6"+ somewhere
