olafminesaw
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Everything posted by olafminesaw
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The GFS actually shows equally high wind gusts on the West side of the track. Halifax gusts over 80 mph
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It makes landfall in, wait for it...Nova Scotia
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Absolutely. A stalled out front and a slow moving cyclone, with already signs of a PRE showing up on the models is a little concerning.
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It would seem I was wrong, it just took all day yesterday for the EWRC to complete and now the eye just needs to wrap convection around and contract. The satellite ended up being misleading in this case https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimtc/2022_07L/web/mainpage.html
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Seems to be some kind of constant EWRC process that keeps repeating. Already a partial secondary eyewall.
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Models starting to tighten up on a LA to FL landfall. Actually pretty good agreement at this range
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Wonky structure issues continue
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Don't know how the HWRF does with hybrid systems, but...
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Perhaps an EWRC. Not exactly a classic structure either way, although still obviously a solid core
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The latest NHC track makes landfall on Cape Breton Island as a 100 mph cat 2, with up to 10 inches of rain. No comments on surve yet, although the rocky coastline will help mitigate surge.
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That really is the norm for landfalling gulf storms. Particularly in October
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Tropical Storm Gaston
olafminesaw replied to Prismshine Productions's topic in Tropical Headquarters
Fish storms have unrealistic beauty standards -
Fair. The meltdowns will be glorious when the core falls apart over Cuba and makes landfall over the swamps of Florida as an anemic cat 2. Or something like that
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Yeah, it's wild how much the hype train has ramped up being 10+ days from a US landfall. I have a feeling the latest Euro won't help either...
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Thanks for sharing, I was just researching the island this morning, noticed the speck on the NHC map. There actually is a webcam on the island: https://www.windy.com/en/-Webcams/Canada/Nova Scotia/Sable Island/Sable Island Station/webcams/1408056380?43.930,-59.985,5
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One thing I'm noticing is just how massive the models are making this by the time it enters the gulf. Evokes A certain K storm
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Also, I believe this is the first recorded case of a major hurricane making landfall on grand turk
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The NHC's five day forecast up to this point was near perfect for track
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940 mb is the Canadian LP record
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A bit lopsided on microwave and ragged on satellite this morning. Seems like it keeps trying to do an EWRC, but is slow to do so
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Structure perhaps degrading a bit over the past few hrs fwiw.
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Seems like a situation where land interaction actually helps to push out dry air and tighten the circulation. It may or may not be over land long enough to impede strengthening
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HAFS, which seems to be performing well so far, brings Fiona through the middle of the Bahamas
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Overnight models seem to be converging on a recurve/surf-maker. Still, wouldn't rule anything out until it's made it through the islands.
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12 ensembles comparison
