olafminesaw
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Everything posted by olafminesaw
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Much more of a pronounced warm nose this run, FWIW
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The NAM is definitely closer to all snow for Guilford county. The NW corner even stays all snow. Move the sn/ip line 20 miles south, and we're golden.
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No warm nose at 700 mb on the 12z HRRR. It's not really reliable at this range, but good new nonetheless.
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The 0z Euro has heaviest snow in Greensboro from 6am to 2pm with snowfall rates in the 1.5-2" per hour range at peak, if we can stay snow until the heaviest banding comes through, I will be more than content.
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Whoa, it's like 200 miles east of the NAM
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When you get heavy freezing rain a good portion doesn't actually accreate. You can cut those totals on those maps by at least half.
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It's just the arbitrary point where the absolute center is moving around in the broad area where the center is. Look at the mslp lines, they don't move around much.
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Mid levels are significantly better on the 3km NAM in the Triad than the 12km. Impressive banding too.
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It's going to be painful watching the sleet line in Greensboro. I think it may end up setting up over Guilford county for a long while.
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My only complaint is, as I understand, a more consolidated low may push up mid level temps.
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The column is less saturated, wait for the heavy precip to arrive before comparing
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Even more dry at 30, Virga city:
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Lots of mid level dry air (this at GSO)
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I never know quite what to make of the RGEM. It always seems to have strange convective blobs.
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It's great that the majority of the heavy precip will be falling during the daytime.
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The SREF is an awful model. Really Useless. Worse than useless.
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He's not exactly known for his attention to detail.
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Bullish as always
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You can see how the precip gets enhanced as it hits the wall. It will be interesting to see where banding sets up, because wherever the jackpot zone is East of the Mountains, will be sitting under a heavy band for a while. My guess would be up near the VA border.
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It's all like... Come hither with the finger over Greensboro
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More than enough to digest while we wait for the 0z party to start here: http://www.stormhamster.com/entry/e120618.htm
