I agree, it's not so much ground temps I'm concerned about as getting the front to move through quick enough before the moisture arrives. Gotta watch trends here, if we can move it south and stronger, we're in business
Still...gotta watch the initial disturbance, clipper thingy. Could drop a sneaky few inches somewhere. Currently favors to our North, but with the suppression trend, could work out around here
I feel there's not a huge upside with this one. A bigger phase would yield a big hit for DC, but dynamics would suck down here. Of course the phase could occur sooner and to our South, but we've seen how that has been a tough ask this year. I understand the GFS is currently in a pretty good position. I just think it's a bit of a thread the needle.
There's a slim chance on the 7th/8th. Right now doesn't look like much cold air to work with, so would need a stronger system to generate it's own. But looks like the kind of system that would get squashed easily by any decent cold