olafminesaw
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Everything posted by olafminesaw
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I wouldn't use ensembles to nail down QPF specifics. They're more for seeing track shifts and giving a general idea of where the jackpot will be
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The hour 84 NAM looking suspect?? No.... Couldn't.
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I would think you'd need data to make a claim one way or the other. Just because big model adjustments happen, doesn't mean you know why.
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Edit: That wasn't all
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Warm nose, trying it's darndest:
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Generational or cold rain for the Triad? Maybe the offices should, like, talk to each other every once in a while.
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IDK, The Weather Channel has been all in for a while, that usually gets the hype machine rolling
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Don't look at the precipitation shield when comparing runs, people. Look at the MSLP and 500 mb charts.
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This will be one of the longest duration storms I've experienced, around 36 hours of precip.
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The GFS just NAMed us.
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Notably lower DPs at hour 72
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Seems to be running out ahead of the LP some, with the LP hanging back a bit more.
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Anecdotally, this reasoning seems to come up with every storm, and it doesn't seem like the wave(s) coming ashore leads to big model changes most of the time. Of course, we should expect changes, four days out anyway.
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The GEFS was a step South again. If the Euro makes a small adjustment south at 12z, I'd say the Triad is all systems go for a historic storm.
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Once the 3km NAM is in range we'll have a better idea. It's usually spot on with precipitation type with wedges
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My weenie is certainly awake. Let's bring it home with some adjustments South through 12z.
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Might we expect the FV3 to handle dynamics better than its twin?
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Well, the hour 84 NAM always, and I mean always, goes nuclear. So not really saying much.
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A really good track. I imagine it would be colder. More sleet along the R/S line.
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How much is sleet? Who knows, the ensembles won't get the thermal profiles right anyway.
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I look forward to the raging virga storm. Right on the North side of the gradient is a great place to be.
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I expect to see a shift in track over the next 24 hours, usually there is at this range. My guess is it will stay reasonably far south to start, but hug more inland, like the FV3. I'm anticipating a sleetfest.
