olafminesaw
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Everything posted by olafminesaw
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Yeah, it's wild how much the hype train has ramped up being 10+ days from a US landfall. I have a feeling the latest Euro won't help either...
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Thanks for sharing, I was just researching the island this morning, noticed the speck on the NHC map. There actually is a webcam on the island: https://www.windy.com/en/-Webcams/Canada/Nova Scotia/Sable Island/Sable Island Station/webcams/1408056380?43.930,-59.985,5
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One thing I'm noticing is just how massive the models are making this by the time it enters the gulf. Evokes A certain K storm
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Also, I believe this is the first recorded case of a major hurricane making landfall on grand turk
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The NHC's five day forecast up to this point was near perfect for track
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940 mb is the Canadian LP record
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A bit lopsided on microwave and ragged on satellite this morning. Seems like it keeps trying to do an EWRC, but is slow to do so
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Structure perhaps degrading a bit over the past few hrs fwiw.
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Seems like a situation where land interaction actually helps to push out dry air and tighten the circulation. It may or may not be over land long enough to impede strengthening
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HAFS, which seems to be performing well so far, brings Fiona through the middle of the Bahamas
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Overnight models seem to be converging on a recurve/surf-maker. Still, wouldn't rule anything out until it's made it through the islands.
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12 ensembles comparison
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Yes but the members that keep it weak also are the ones threatening the coast. I honestly think at this point a slow death in the Caribbean is more likely than a recurve. But if it can survive past the islands who knows, as conditions are likely to improve
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The Euro is crawling. makes landfall in West Palm Beach in 9 days as a moderate TS
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In the upper levels the Euro seems to have taken a step towards the Canadian with the ridging shifting east and closing the escape route. Keeps it really weak though and seems to make a broad messy system that may have a hard time organizing
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Bye bye LLC
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GFS is further south. Also, curious how that feature over Florida will end up coming into play
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Yeah, his does make it clearer the tracks they end up taking. I just thought it was funny how even though the mean would be over the island, all the individual members appeared to miss in yours
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Island forcefield, lol
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Quite a convective burst in the last hour or so. Impressive for nearing Dmin. Doesn't really look like it's occurring over or near the center, but I don't have that expertise
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With a track like that, a weak system is almost more likely to hold together over terrain than a hurricane.
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I believe it has been 5 full days since the NHC gave this a 70% chance of development through day 5. I feel like this has to be approaching longest lived cherry and it may never develope
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Yeah, would be wild if after this it ends up threading the needle and developing after staying weak through the Bahamas and ends up impacting the East Coast. Ensembles show the weaker solutions heading that direction
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If it becomes a hurricane, it would be one of the furthest north forming hurricanes on record. The only other one I could find in the NOAA database is Lisa (1998)
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Mighty impressive. Surely upwelling will hold back intensity for the next couple days though? Or does the subtropical structure negate this?
