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olafminesaw

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Everything posted by olafminesaw

  1. olafminesaw
    Starting a thread, now that continued organization is likely and landfall along the gulf coast is an increasing threat. The 6z HWRF is highlighting this evening, into tommorow for a period of fairly quick intensification, once the system gets more stacked. After that track/intensity becomes nearly impossible to predict, with weak steering flow.
  2. olafminesaw
    Pretty quick development in the short to medium range. Probably gets mostly swallowed by the Yucatan due to its small size, but hard to say for sure
  3. olafminesaw
    Radar estimate: .3" Actual: .05" That dry layer really ate up moisture. Goes to show how having good radar coverage matters
  4. olafminesaw
    Looks like once again, NE flow from a wedge should tamp down any flood threat that Beta would otherwise bring. Also fast moving. Lots of parallels to Sally really, just a weaker system. Edit: It does look like there are some dynamics at play. Frontogenisis with a transfer of the low to the coast. Probably up towards the VA border. Has some serious winter storm vibes. DC special if this were January
  5. olafminesaw
    September should be the start of soup season and by that I certainly do not mean atmospheric soup. The good news? We're only a week away from the average latest 90 degree day
  6. olafminesaw
    Lel
  7. olafminesaw
    Levi talked about this, how it's expected to pulse as the convection fights the shear and then dies off
  8. olafminesaw
    Ruh roh
  9. olafminesaw
    It's remarkable how near average the temps have remained the past couple months in Greensboro
  10. olafminesaw
    Meanwhile the Wpac, which has hit peak climo, had been completely quiet. It must be near record low at the moment. Does anyone know if the two basins often have an inverse correlation?
  11. olafminesaw
    Seems in the Triad we'll get stuck between any PRE to our. NW and he bulk of the precip to the east. I wanted a good rain storm...oh well.
  12. olafminesaw
    Probably because it tends to reach criteria a lot for the region
  13. olafminesaw
    Today or tomorrow might be our first 90 degree day in Greensboro, which would be our fourth latest on record behind: July 2nd (1983) July 5th (2017) July 18th (1972)
  14. olafminesaw
    I have a feeling that's exactly how this summer is going to go
  15. olafminesaw
    Two days in a row, GSO hit 89. Still no 90 degree day. Saturday could be our last chance to hit the mark until around June 20th, which would be rather unusual.
  16. olafminesaw
    15/8/4
  17. olafminesaw
  18. olafminesaw
  19. olafminesaw
    They need to work on their map legibility
  20. olafminesaw
    The hires models are showing a band setting up and training over one area somewhere in the Piedmont. Wherever it gets stuck is going to get pounded with at least 2-4" through tommorow morning. As of now concensus seems to put the bullseye somewhere in between the Triad and Triangle up to around Roanoke
  21. olafminesaw
    Might as well make a thread. Get your paddle.
  22. olafminesaw
    I'm surprised RAH hasn't issued a FFW yet. The NAM would bring storm totals to the 6-8" mark
  23. olafminesaw
    As of now it looks like Thusday morning is when the worst of it will hit for the Piedmont, at least in terms of flooding concerns
  24. olafminesaw
    Wonky
  25. olafminesaw
    Looking from the outside in at this possibly historic storm, I've never seen such a series of weenie runs from the NAM, in terms of low probability outcomes. Of course the NAM is probably wrong, but noon Saturday:
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