olafminesaw
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Everything posted by olafminesaw
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I'm starting to see a pattern where for every hour a hurricane spends over land, it takes about 1 hour to reorganize (assuming good conditions). Zeta was over land for about 12 hours.
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Could be pretty potent ET transition over land well inland. 80-90 kt low-level jet at 900 hPa. Just depends on how strong convection is on the eastern flank of the circulation to mix down gusts as it phases with the mid-level low. The GFS brings 50-70 mph gusts up through north Georgia, upstate SC, and the western half of NC
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MO/KS/AR/OK 2020-2021 "Winter" Discussion
olafminesaw replied to JoMo's topic in Central/Western States
Nasty for OKC -
*for entertainment purposes only*
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Pretty strong agreement
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Speaking of which, the next couple years are going to be a dumpster fire as everyone forgets what climo is and expect major us landfalls all the time, when what we will get is fish fish fish
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Possible Florida impact aside, it's hard to ignore the persistence of the GFS showing an enormous storm off the East coast. Could be interesting days ahead.
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I think it will hit lake charles with the western portion and at least western Lafayette with the eastern portion. Goes to show how much bigger this is than Laura
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Current trajectory puts landfall just east of Cameron. Maybe 10 miles east of Laura
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The NHC track ticked west. Makes sense with the turn to the east delayed by a few hours. Lake charles now at a 60% chance of hurricane force sustained winds. Probably good news from a surge perspective. Will hit low population areas
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Seems to have stalled out a bit the past few frames. I'm guessing that indicates the turn is happening
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Yeah,the point being, it was basically assumed before the past couple years that landfalling gulf canes were half-canes
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Dropsnode 88kts it's at the surface, but 121kts just above the surface
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Down to about 970/71 mb
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Yeah, what helped Cancun is bad news for the gulf coast: a larger, more stable core and an expansion of the wind field
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Thankfully, Cancun appears to be mostly cinder block construction. A bigger city of than I thought, over 600k, similar to the size of Nashville
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The core is only about 40 miles across. With a little under 24 hrs until landfall, I expect it to make a run at cat 5
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Recon will be heading in soon. May very well find the most dramatic strengthening yet
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Maybe somewhat improved from earlier though? It lost the big convective blob to the south
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All of a sudden, it appears to rapidly be developing a core.
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The Euro has a similar landfall point to Laura as a weak hurricane
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Cat1/2 at landfall seems to be the ceiling, even with quick forward speed:
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Increasingly it seems, the models are showing an extremely high shear in the gulf will tear soon to be Gamma to shreads. The only way I see it surviving is if it manages to stall out a bit until the environment can improve.
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Starting a thread, now that continued organization is likely and landfall along the gulf coast is an increasing threat. The 6z HWRF is highlighting this evening, into tommorow for a period of fairly quick intensification, once the system gets more stacked. After that track/intensity becomes nearly impossible to predict, with weak steering flow.
