olafminesaw
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Everything posted by olafminesaw
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February 18-19 MAJOR Ice Storm Threat
olafminesaw replied to NorthHillsWx's topic in Southeastern States
I dunno why. But wowzers. Those are some dynamics -
February 18-19 MAJOR Ice Storm Threat
olafminesaw replied to NorthHillsWx's topic in Southeastern States
I'm on mobile, but the RGEM is as classic an ice storm signal as it gets. Temps don't rise about 30 in the triad for almost the entire event and over 1.5" of precip. The few factors working against significant icing: Rates are a bit heavier this go around and it will be fairly warm and sunny the day before. Also more of the precip will be during the day. -
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FWIW the RGEM absolutely nailed the temps for the prior event at similar lead time: Here is what it is currently showing for the Thursday system:
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Also of note, the timing of the heaviest icing seems to be in the early morning hours
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Yeah, this is definitely a sleet sounding
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When we can't help but root for an ice storm, because it's all we've got:
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Although, it has actually overdone the wedge at times, with this past ice storm. It had us in the mid-20s during the heavy precip, I believe
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Meanwhile, all of texas is covered in winter storm watch/warning or advisory. Salt in wound
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Could be a bit of a re-freeze tonight
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Slug of heavier precip incoming. Looks like it may contain some sleet or such.
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Pretty significant changes
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Yeah, I mean, for the Triad every half degree is going to account, especially as the precip is going to be pretty heavy. At 31 degrees, I don't see more than .1-.2" accreation. At 29 I could see .3-.4"
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Interestingly, if anything the HRRR has backed off somewhat the past couple runs on how cold it gets. Minor differences, but now it seems to hold temps pretty steady throughout the night, instead of dropping further.
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You can see precise temp (.1 degree increments readings here for different mesonet sites :https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/sites/current.php?station=GSO&network=NC_ASOS
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Yeah, it's a huge difference between 32 and 30 and between 30 and 28. At 28, everything will freeze solid.
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Question, does 32 count as a sub-freezing high?
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This may genuinely be the most miserable 3 day stretch of weather I've experienced. At this point I'm embracing it's extreme suckyness. This kind of pattern only comes around every 5 years or so after all!
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Light glaze on trees, some residual sleet on elevated surfaces and mulch, roads are just fine in Greensboro (including overpasses)
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I've been burned by the HRRR too many times, but it's has a much deeper cold pool
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RGEM runs cold but....
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Probably too cold, but I could definitely see a decent glaze on trees happening early Saturday
