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olafminesaw

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Everything posted by olafminesaw

  1. olafminesaw
    *sad cricket noises* Anyway, with the MCS that moved through, I doubt we will hit our forecast high of 86 in the triad. Muggy muggy though
  2. olafminesaw
    125 115 940 Cocodrie
  3. olafminesaw
    Hilly terrain, up to about 1000 ft, should halt intensification somewhat for at least a few hours. But hard to believe it will have much of an impact long term
  4. olafminesaw
    The GFS had been pumping out lots of gulf systems a couple days back as well. The signal is there
  5. olafminesaw
    GFS at 33 a tou ch east of 18z. heading for a landfall just east of LI i think
  6. olafminesaw
    Because it's the first model to run and addicts need their fix. Kinda like the SREF for snowstorms. I much prefer looking at the 3km version if I want my fix of complete nonsense
  7. olafminesaw
    Certainly true that it's not yet aligned. But the center is under the edge of the convection and even though convective bursts don't last forever, it should help the system align. Shear is definitely lessened
  8. olafminesaw
    https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso2-14-24-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined
  9. olafminesaw
    Wow, last few frames convection really started pushing north over the LLC. May be all systems go at this point
  10. olafminesaw
    You see this all the time as Typhoons recurve past Japan. They normally do ramp down pretty quick, but can bring pretty strong winds while looking pathetic on IR
  11. olafminesaw
    Seems to support FL wind data. I would go 70 mph
  12. olafminesaw
    Looks like there's some Saharan dust on pushing in from the South East of the circulation. Any chance it gets ingested and effects the system?
  13. olafminesaw
    When's the next recon? Seems like really infrequent recon for a possible landfilling US cane
  14. olafminesaw
    Late to release, the 12z UKMET ensembles:
  15. olafminesaw
    yeah, a foot of rain at just about any interval is really rare for boston.
  16. olafminesaw
    I'm guessing recon data will be integrated in the 0z suite?
  17. olafminesaw
    Best used for sniffing out alternative solutions IMO, which means it's definitely way off base sometimes
  18. olafminesaw
    It intializes way too weak. It's at 1012 mb at 11 am, while the 11 am advisory has it at 998 mb
  19. olafminesaw
  20. olafminesaw
  21. olafminesaw
    Good point, although you can see how even at slow speeds, it will traverse cooler water relatively quickly
  22. olafminesaw
    Quite warm SSTs. Also at the time of year when water temp is warmest. I also feel like climo favors later in the year with more of a subtropical transition. I still think a direct impact is less than 20% right now
  23. olafminesaw
    Looking on the NOAA database at storms within 100 miles of it's current position, there are hardly any that made east coast landfalls. The only ones that did, north of Florida were 1933 hurricane (the strongest one) Ginger (1971) Hermine (2004) (probably the only one that could be a plausible track)
  24. olafminesaw
    I was thinking the same, looking at radar. I'm wondering if once it started moving NW, it was more exposed to shear. Should be back to due north pretty soon
  25. olafminesaw
    Seems to have jogged to the west over the past hour or so
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