olafminesaw

Buffalo is going to get repeatedly crushed by apps runner after apps runner. I just know it!

I think in general people over-estimate the predictive power of an H5 pattern on surface outcomes. Especially for a smoothed out mean. We can only say, x features are correlated with Y outcome, but exact placement, strength, interaction between them is an inexact science at best, even if the output is largely correct. Snow maps help to show where cold and moisture is linking up broadly, but are prone to random variation. The addition of the 100+ members of the new EPS will be a big help in this respect, assuming they are sufficiently perturbed. Temp and moisture anomaly maps together can get you a little more detail on how it's all coming together, but don't show how individual waves may potentially play out. All this together is what makes d5+ forecasts a complete crapshoot.

Persistence persists until proven otherwise.

What is even going on here.

Looks like some areas may receive 80-100" of snow in a 24 hr period. The change in weather conditions in a straight line from the coast, to Nevada across the state is insane.

Maybe an outside chance of some sleep mixing in tommorow morning. Desperate times...

Not terrible, just need that High to slide south more

The GFS is definitely improved, but still a Miller B mess.

I don't think we're really that much further from a positive outcome than we were yesterday. What we're seeing though, is how many things have to go right, with little or no below average temps to pull from anywhere in North America. A perfect low track, perfect placement & timing of the 50/50, sufficiently strong Canadian HP, etc. A perfect setup up top still means living on a razors edge WRT track.

It's like 1,000 miles north of the Euro. I wouldn't expect anything from that track

Yeah, I mean snowfalls of 8" or more are extremely rare in the piedmont. Usually, if we get storm broadly like the Euro, the piedmont gets a few inches of snow followed by a flip to rain, while DC gets pumeled.

The backside death band is pure weenie fuel. This is what I mean when I said don't get attached to any one solution...

Same general vibe as the EPS. A ton of spread though

This looks really good IMO. Expect big swings in the next few days with the fast flow. Give it until Monday or so before becoming attached to any one solution.

Gotta watch the High placement/strength. Could be a snow to ice type storm, if it doesn't cut.

Put another way, the odds of going completely snowless in the second half of January is about 40%.

Average historical daily odds of measurable snow within the following date ranges in Greensboro: Jan 1-7 4.3% Jan 8-14 5.3% Jan 15-21 6.1% Jan 22-28 5.9% J 29 - F4 4.9%

I'm not in love with the more Miller Bish look the GFS has going on, but this still looks like it could be a threat

I've never seen this type of graphic before! Is this something experimental?

Yeah, definitely a long shot but I think we could too. This look is the kind of thread the needle that sometimes works in January (even with the lack of any real cold air mass)

Extrapolating the 384 hr GFS is an excercise in futility, but this would be a really good look:

Definitely less moisture behind the front on the morning models. We'll see but the problem is there's really only a 1-2 hr window for snow now and not as much moisture in that window either. It does seem the precip type panels are underestimating how quickly the changeover will take place, but this kinda ends up as a wash due to melting at those temps. I think .1" QPF is a pretty reasonable bet. Which we can't assume will be much more than 10:1 ratios. The HRRR does seem to have some banding features which may yield some more localized totals. For that reason I would go with .5-1.5" with localized 2"+

Worth monitoring, but I feel like we can weigh it lightly until it gets inside about 12-18 hrs. That being said, the afternoon trends have been to diminish snowfall somewhat.

Looks like a fine day for a brisk sail on Lake Erie Friday afternoon, with 20 foot waves, negative 20 windchills and 50 mph sustained winds!

And it's sandwiched up against a bomb that could produce LP records in that region (don't have time to research, but could drop into the 960s). The wind field is incredible