olafminesaw

RAH: The overwhelming majority of the forecast interest is obviously on the Saturday night - Monday time period, and for good reason. Previous model solutions were somewhat unclear with the GFS/GEFS/ECENS all indicating the potential for wintry precipitation for our area, while the deterministic ECMWF was the outlier in showing a system to our south with little in the way of impactful weather across NC. Today`s ensemble data and 12Z deterministic guidance has come into better agreement, albeit with a curve ball in the form of a pronounced warm nose across Coastal Plain and central Piedmont. While all the models indicate the potential for precip Saturday night through Sunday night as an initial low dives through the Midwest into the Deep South, the guidance is also showing a secondary coastal low developing Sunday morning (Miller-B style) with a pronounced warm nose from 925-850mb extending well inland Sunday afternoon. For being vastly different 12 hours ago, both the EC and GFS deterministic show 40-50kt easterly 925-850mb winds with temperatures forecast to rise to around +1C in the western Piedmont and up to around +6C across the Coastal Plain. Cold air would eventually wrap back around the system as it exits to the northeast early Monday morning, perhaps chasing the moisture out of the area in the process. At this stage of game, despite an apparent convergence of solutions with today`s 12Z deterministic guidance and suggestions of support from their ensembles, there is still a lot of uncertainty that needs to be sorted out. Precip chances continue to increase during this period, but the potential for a substantial warm nose could result in some areas that see snow, ice, rain, or a mix of all the above with this event. Much will ultimately depend on how closely the low stays to the coast and the strength/position of the surface ridge to our north. We`ll continue with the mention of rain/snow for Sunday into Monday but still too early to talk amounts or icing potential with any degree of certainty.

I've learned the key too happiness is dismissing all model runs that show "the big one" and being satisfied with 2-4" that coats everything. Unfortunately knowing the key to happiness is only half the battle. I get disappointed regardless when the clown maps don't pan out, despite knowing better.

No need to cliff jump or celebrate until 12z tomorrow at the earliest. We have a pretty good feel for the envelope and I do feel the UKMET outcome is well within it. It seems lot of the conventional wisdom about the North trend is only true maybe half the time and this still looks like A+ chance for most on this board (even if it doesn't end up working out)

Definitely a big step towards the GFS with more of a hybrid Miller A. Doesn't totally cave though, which is good for most everyone

GEFS looks Great. Less amped than the GFS, but a solid hit for all NC

Would be a nasty ice storm south of I85. That's a stout wedge

Need this to stop trending North

Gotta iron out the vort track, strength etc. before it's even worth thinking about precip type issues. Always an issue when it comes to the big ones, which is why we don't mind an EPS-like solution

Can't afford to see much more amplification than what the GFS depicts. Which is why the Euro is good news. The only other model in the GFS camp is the icon, so I think the full range of outcomes is still on the table

And this is the part of the show where I get overly invested...

The Euro is almost more frontal, which we don't so much like, if we're hoping for big totals.

Gotta love how cold that run is for most of central NC. What a bizarre storm track though. Seems like small changes could yield wildly different results

It's really encouraging to see multiple rolls of the dice. I don't think we can put much weight on any one of these modeled storm scenarios yet, but I can't help feeling like something will inevitably shake out in our favor

Money

Close, but no cigar

Yeah, I mean, fair's fair. Gotta bring balance to the force, or whatever

Right where we want it

Realistically in that scenario the triad and SE would be at least half sleet

It seems there's some data issues with the GFS, but showing on the old fashioned NWS site. Wow

I'd be shocked if y'all didn't get any more snow. But I'll take my annual fifteen minutes of Fame

Not much cold air to speak of though

Seems the only kind of snow we can get these past few years is 5:1 patchy stuff

Seems we'll be in a bit of a dry slot for the next couple hours in the Triad, still, should get several good hours of snow

Great sun angle though!