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hlcater

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Everything posted by hlcater

  1. hlcater
    Gonna be interesting to see if offices buy into the south trend by tomorrow morning. If not, I'm just not sure what they're thinking... The 18z Euro has nearly all the warning criteria snow south of the current WSWs.
  2. hlcater
    Lots of interesting choices on watches today. They more or less reflect the guidance from yesterday opposed to what we're seeing now. Not entirely sure I follow that line of thinking.
  3. hlcater
    DVN jumped the gun with those and I’m curious to see when they cancel them. It was pretty bullish as far as warnings go too. Only one model shows good snow here now and it’s everyones favorite.
  4. hlcater
    I’m not expecting much from this locally, but I still think 12” is achievable for someone somewhere.
  5. hlcater
    I’ll be on the 2%s, because god knows it doesn’t snow here; so at least I have those. anyways back to your regularly scheduled programming
  6. hlcater
    I’m probably gonna leave the forum for 2 years because I’m upset.
  7. hlcater
    I’m holding out for the NAM... never a good sign. Everything else has dove southeast overnight with the UK and CMC not even showing an inch in my area. GEFS mean has never been good here, but still isn’t. Not sure about the EPS. Trends are absolutely awful for this area and I don’t have much confidence that it corrects northwest. None of the other storms have this season, so why would this one?
  8. hlcater
    Don’t see any reason why the dive southeast won’t continue. It’s not good when the only model on your side is the NAM. Unbelievably frustrating when your first potential good storm inside 84hr in a few years is yanked away.
  9. hlcater
    Congrats to Chicago for the 300th time in the past decade. You really deserve this one. Meanwhile it’s been a casual 12 years since our last 12” snow, but that’s a meaningless statistic.
  10. hlcater
    We were worried about a trend north, but are now worried about a trend south. I think we’re sittinv good for this one... knock on wood
  11. hlcater
    I’ve never measured 12” of snow from a single storm since I started keeping track in 2015
  12. hlcater
    Light winds in and below the DGZ should help with maximizing flake size assuming lift is good(it should be if the euro has any hint). I think if things line up anything like the 12z suite is hinting they could, 12" is attainable for somebody somewhere.
  13. hlcater
    My question is why would a phased solution be favored when AO has been record levels of positive? NAO is a bit more towards neutral, but AO will be ~+2. However it’s falling to +2 all the way from +6. Is it like AAM where the trend matters more than the actual value? I’m curious. Because I’d otherwise be expecting a more strung out/progressive system.
  14. hlcater
    Hopefully we get an SSW in mid March so we can have more chances at snow in April.
  15. hlcater
    Can someone inject whatever substance the 00z GFS is on straight into my veins?
  16. hlcater
    Absolutely criminal that you left out the best state in the sub.
  17. hlcater
  18. hlcater
    Gassing up my snowblower tonight.
  19. hlcater
    Rainer
  20. hlcater
    PivotalWeather added the UKMET!!!
  21. hlcater
    3.4” in Iowa City
  22. hlcater
    Would think I clicked onto the NYC sub Jesus
  23. hlcater
    I mentioned exactly that on a different forum. Call me bullish, but I would not be surprised in the slightest to see blizzard warnings whipped out tomorrow if we can squeeze out even an inch on top of the frictionless surface from overnight. It really doesn't take much with winds gusting to 45-50mph to create ground blizzard or even full blizzard conditions if that band ends up being fairly robust.
  24. hlcater
    Same out here. I measured 4.7" as a composite right as we started to switch to sleet. Appears as if the 3-5" calls were money across much of the area. This could change if the HRRR has it's way tomorrow...
  25. hlcater
    Anyone know why the HRRR/pivotal weather p-depiction algorithm continuously paints mixed precip with a profile like this? Just a bug, or is there some reason for it that I'm not aware of? For context, this is from an area immediately on the backside of the low tomorrow (of which the HRRR is very aggressive with breaking out precip, much more so than the rest of guidance).
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