hlcater
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Everything posted by hlcater
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Some models do Saturday further west, and some more also have a setup on Monday. Saturday may end up capped due to the lack of a well developed wave. Monday might not exist at all, though the 00z Euro and 12z GFS do each have setups on Monday, even though they are vastly different.
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always has been
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hi
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There's an excellent dataset on wunderground, except it doesn't appear as if any of the PWSs in Benton/Linn actually have data stored for 8/10, go figure.
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As did I, my guess is that due to the scale of the MCV feature, the average gradient generated by an MCV w/strong RIJ is somewhere in between a hurricane and a tornado.
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I checked and it's actually way, way greater. For instance, Josh's censors in Michael at Panama City peaked at ~1.5mb/min. This is 3.0-3.5mb/min, obviously. I'm interested in the context of a reading like that relative to other MCVs/Derechoes so I've been looking for comparable data, particularly BAMEX.
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uhhhh 25mb/7min is pretty insane...
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You're gonna want to watch these 3 videos. They are the most impressive out of any of the video I've seen so far and are easily on par with a significant, perhaps major, hurricane. MANY gusts over 100mph and the sustained winds are the highest I've seen out of any video.
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Environment looks pretty decent by Caribbean standards, not sure why models are struggling to do much. There's some dryness out ahead of it, but shear is light and when it exists, it seems to be northerly or easterly. Though it's not actually getting much help from upper level divergence, as it is only modest at best.
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0.00 in Iowa City expansion of D1 is probable given the next week+ is cool and dry.
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One drawback is the OFB currently marching south along I80 in Iowa. That's a real excellent feature there
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I like tomorrow for some gusty storms along the cold front. Strong mid level winds, seasonably steep lapse rates and well mixed/inverted V profiles below 700mb yield quite a bit of DCAPE and 15-20 degree spreads. Seems like a solid setup if you're looking for some strong downdrafts. Shear vectors relative to the cold front are quite good as well, and may allow for a few supercells with perhaps some hail despite meager SRH and fairly linear hodographs. Tornado threat may exist in Wisconsin where low level shear isn't god awful, but MCS overnight might take care of that.
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Here's a compilation of all the highest gusts I observed in sequential order. Including one that I believe may have been as high as 120. I had initially pegged it at 100ish, but after seeing damage surveys, other videos in the area and of winds that strong(Irma's eyewall), local measurements(primarily atkins 126), it seems as if marking that gust as 120 isn't necessarily implausible. Essentially, all the gusts were best guess measurements using a similar method to that used on the strongest gust, so I hope that they're fairly accurate and they seemed sound to me. But who knows...
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That 126mph wind gust from Atkins is the new Iowa wind speed record if verified.
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graphic is too far north imo. Also leaves out a slew of 100mph wind reports along hwy 30.
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best vid I've seen so far....
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Y’all forget 2017 hadn’t really gotten started by this point and had a similar progression of mostly junk until late august.
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I hope we can get a nice fall severe weather event. Been awhile since we had one of those. The derecho wasn’t enough for me . I still need to get one Actually Good™ tornado on the year and it’ll be complete. The two bird farts I got 5/23 didn’t do it for me.
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I suspect there may have been gusts that exceeded 120mph in spots. We'll never know though because DVN isnt surveying for some reason...
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Not really, primarily because the onset was slow and I was busy trying to find the best/safest spot to ride out the storm
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There's a 109mph report from 3 N Atkins on the LSR page. That's about 5 miles from where I was. I was 2-3S of Atkins.
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Oh yea, the same thing happened here. I probably had 70mph gusts and perhaps 1 or 2 to near 80 well after the video above was taken, though they were difficult to quantify on video due to the lack of precip. What I really like about that video is that you can hear the "impact" of the really high winds against the car as the deep whoosh as the big clouds of mist blow by. Being in that singlehandedly motivated me to order a Kestrel 3000 for next time so I dont have to guess whether the winds are pretty strong or really strong. Confident in 100mph primarily due to damage and proximity to Nick Stewart, who measured 100mph.
