hlcater

Honestly has a better convective pattern than yesterday lol.

That's putting it mildly. Granted, GOM upper layer SSTs have come down. But unfortunately upper spreading divergence is bonkers. Delta's vortex is going to intensify rapidly. 28+SSTs are perfect for the kind of poleward outflow it will experience. Simply put, it's entering a hyped environment. Lapse rates are on steroids. Think this reattains Category 4 but as a much larger hurricane. The upper divergence and excellent poleward outflow channel are the biggest pluses for sure. 28c SSTs aren't really gonna help much, but they shouldn't really hurt either. That microwave pass was the first time I've been impressed by delta in the past 30 hours. Really thought it would explode yesterday and it probably would've gotten away with it too if it werent for that meddling shear.

Recon says the bleeding hasnt stopped. Up to 967 extrap and a max of 85kts FL in the NW quad. Yikes.

Yea delta is exhibiting symptoms of high shear right now. My call from earlier this afternoon will be far too intense.

Shear appears to reduce later tonight and through landfall. Should have a 8hr window with negligible shear prior to landfall. Not likely enough time to go sub 900, but may be enough time to clear the eye out. The ongoing convective burst is probably inducing pressure falls again, symmetric or not.

fringe radar image suggests maybe a larger eye trying to take over/absorb the 4nmi wide eye. Regardless, I think intensification is probably done for now. Remains to be seen whether it resumes later.

As expected, the inner core/eyewall is a mess.

Next plane looks to be wheels up at 00z with nearly continuous coverage overnight.

Why are we shitting on Jim Edds lol. The dude knows more about hurricanes than the vast majority of us. Not only that, the call wasn't even that bullish. Bullish for sure but not impossible.

8am eastern, 7am central

That shear is probably why the core is messy. Per GFS soundings, shear decreases again tonight and through landfall. Landfall is ~12z tomorrow so we've got one more diurnal max to really make it. First landfall call for me is 916mb/145kt. EDIT: I'll add the core being messy now is bad news for cancun. We won't get an EWRC with a messy core.

If the eye closes, clears and there isn’t an EWRC, it may be possible. Gotta keep in mind we’ve got a -80 ring and we’re already at 140/956 even with the core being a mess.

Only think that throws a wrench in this now is an EWRC. With such a small eye, something to watch for. But the storm is equally small so who knows.

This thing is TINY. 6nm wide eye and a hurricane force wind diameter of maybe 15-20nm. Still strengthening in earnest and that CDO is freezing cold. If the eye closes and pops, pressure is gonna free fall I think.

no

You would've saved calories by not posting this.

This could be a Cozumel/Cancun strike, yes. And a powerful one at that. I am aggressive on initial maximum intensity by the Yucatán Channel regardless if it strikes the NE Yucatán or skirts through. I dont know if a strike to Cancun or Cozumel weakens it much. That area is completely flat and it will have a quick forward speed at that point spending probably less than 6 hours over land.

Very impressive pass overall. ~55kts on both sides of the eye and an obvious inner core already present. Eye and max wind radii is very small as well. If you're looking for RI, a configuration like this going into Dmax is probably how to get it.

cue excitement. ~985 extrap, 55kts and a nice inner core structure in the NW quad.

Yea I know

SteveCop bringing the hype. Expecting no less than 900mb in 24hrs.

PTC 26 is on the way.

I’m pretty bullish on this one relatively speaking so went ahead and made a thread.

About time for this one. Models are already fairly robust with 92L with the majority reaching hurricane strength and a good chunk with major status. Environment through D4 is just about as good as it gets, so the intensity ceiling is probably quite high on this one relatively speaking. Cool water, shear and dry air should ensure weakening by landfall at least.