hlcater
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Everything posted by hlcater
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if nothing else, they've got it named now and can lengthen the path in post if necessary.
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lol
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I think that's probably our window for real storm. There will be a period of strong shear and poorly favorable conditions starting late tomorrow and persisting through the weekend. Flow is a bit better aligned as this thing turns around and heads east.
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The environment down the line for this one is not especially conducive. While models do show development, I’ll be surprised if this becomes more than a minimal cane. Fropa in a few days will introduce dry, stable air into the area in association with 20-30kts of shear.
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All you need to do to know what that is like is spend a winter in Iceland/Svalbard or the Bering coastline in AK.
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It is the Iowa derecho. Makes sandy look like child’s play. Not too often when you get a “category 4 inland hurricane”!
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What a storm.
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Imagine wasting hodographs like these because 700mb temps are 2 degrees too warm.
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I wish it was. At least then we wouldn’t be having this discussion.
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Imagine a good chunk of Iowa developing D3 drought and then receiving 5+ inches of rain in like 3-4 days.
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DOA
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The thermal ridge at 700mb is going to be too strong. It will initate, but after dark and along the CF.
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The T/Td intersection below the EML is cloud cover, and one of the reasons why I’m not at all confident in initiation. That and the stout EML above it are extremely problematic. Regarding the hodograph, veered flow probably isn’t an issue here as the flow aloft is NWly and the resulting hodograph is quite tasty imo. I don’t have many concerns about the parameter space not being able to support a severe/tornado threat. For me, it’s more of what is the chance we get a robust updraft?
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Some models either do initiate or become extremely close to initiating a storm in this environment. E IA/N IL. I still don’t like EML strength(14c 700s) and subsidence in IA. But far E IA and IL might have a chance....
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Michael is my ideal hurricane. Fast moving, landfall at 90 degrees, in an area thats not too populated, in the middle of the day, clear eye/intensifying into landfall, in the US, the list goes on.
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Most models look like that sunday in Iowa. Huge deal if they somehow end up uncapped, but with a reservoir of 14c 700s to the west AND westerly 700mb flow, that's probably not happening.
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Yea 90% certain that Nana gets downgraded in post.
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Some models do Saturday further west, and some more also have a setup on Monday. Saturday may end up capped due to the lack of a well developed wave. Monday might not exist at all, though the 00z Euro and 12z GFS do each have setups on Monday, even though they are vastly different.
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always has been
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hi
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Reminds me of TS gordon off the coast of the glades in 2018. It too had a tiny little eyewall structure and well defined core and it fell apart. My guess is recon sampled a similar feature and as such, my guess is that it's longevity/potency is dubious at best. It'd be interesting if it found a way to maintain it though.
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There's an excellent dataset on wunderground, except it doesn't appear as if any of the PWSs in Benton/Linn actually have data stored for 8/10, go figure.
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As did I, my guess is that due to the scale of the MCV feature, the average gradient generated by an MCV w/strong RIJ is somewhere in between a hurricane and a tornado.
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I checked and it's actually way, way greater. For instance, Josh's censors in Michael at Panama City peaked at ~1.5mb/min. This is 3.0-3.5mb/min, obviously. I'm interested in the context of a reading like that relative to other MCVs/Derechoes so I've been looking for comparable data, particularly BAMEX.
