hlcater

Definitely worried about sloppy storm modes for this one. Models(particularly the UK) have somewhat improved here, but there continues to be a signal for widespread thunderstorm activity potentially as early as 12z. Ideally, I'd like to put some distance between the setup and the gulf, or otherwise put something over the gulf/gulf coast(like the right exit region or an EML or both!) to temper the amount of thunderstorm activity we have. I'm not entirely sure there's much that can be done about tstm activity north of the warm front, or that it particularly matters in this setup if it clears out in a timely fashion. I think the ceiling is super high here given the frankly excessive hodographs that are present on the UK/Euro, IF we can get supercells in that environment. Even if we cant, a parameter space like that has a tendency to just make tornadoes out of blobs of rain.

I think I'm the only one in here that wanted a part of that 2" hail around here earlier. So that's exactly what I did. Went and got cored near Springville to the company of multiple stones larger than golf ball size with a few exceeding 2". Then decided to set up on a hill and get a time lapse of the backside of the storms illuminated by the sunset. I'm no photographer so this is just about as good as sunset time lapses are gonna get for me. Warning: The first video is *loud*.

I’m still mad about that

Models as a whole have kind of abandoned this idea today. Now looks like its only gonna last 5-7 days before switching back to a more severe wx favorable base state.

This isnt gonna be linear off the pacific front. Discrete storm mode with splitting cells seems most likely to me personally right now. Look at nature of boundary, storm speeds and shear vectors.

Euro just popped a CA of 60. Quite a step up from previous runs and the NAM with CAs of 35-40.

I do think this setup has the potential to be pretty clean. Certainly cleaner than 11/17 ended up verifying as. This doesn't mean this setup is superior to 11/17(because it isnt) but as far as storms themselves go, I think they're gonna be more isolated. The only things I'm worried about from a setup perspective are the critical angles/linear hodographs(see below) and the fairly limited residence time storms will have on the axis of best parameters before flying out of the warm sector at light speed. Storms, especially those at the triple point, may only have 2 hours or so before they go stable. With all this being said, even some small modification to the 0-3km hodograph yields pretty big changes and a much higher caliber of a setup. Whether or not this can be successfully chased remains to be seen.

The NAM is actually the worst model in the suite right now. I think the globals(particularly the UK) are painting a better setup. The primary difference between them and the NAM is the fact that the NAM is significantly faster

Quite a signal coming in from the UKie. Has had something similar for 3 or 4 runs now.

Iowa has closed all schools for 4 weeks per Kim Reynolds.

SARS-CoV-2(the virus itself) is susceptible to UV light just like all coronaviruses are. So I’m optimistic that once we get to may, this thing will be winding down. Heres a few links that I really like and are extraordinarily useful Fairly in depth and comprehensive synopsis of what this virus actually is: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK554776/ ArcGIS dashboard: https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6 Graphs and growth curves for certain countries: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ Needless to say im disappointed in the amount of media catalyzed hype and panic buying that I’ve seen on twitter and elsewhere. Namely a certain joe rogan podcast with 6M views that was an absolute crime and is the equivalent of a weenie freaking out over a 384hr GFS kuchera map. But I think moving universities online and closing large public gatherings makes sense and is a necessary step to flatten the curve and prevent our medical system from getting overwhelmed like it was in Italy and China.

So... Apparently, its been 47 YEARS since CID last measured 12" of snow. I measured 12" in 2008, but apparently the airport did not. Absolutely astonishing how hard a measly 12" is around here. http://www.midwestweathercenter.com/nstew-blog/2020/2/28/missing-the-big-one-streaks-without-a-big-snow-storm

Looks like we will. +NAO/AO looks to remain through at least the first half of March highly unlike the previous several years where we just couldn't shake -AO/NAO. The lack of an SSW this year also helps.

This storm has trended yikesly. 24hrs ago I was worried about narrowly missing a big dog/the storm of the season. Now? Not so much. This thing could still become DET’s system yet. What would be excellent is if we could still manage to get a BS SSW in mid march like I mentioned at the beginning of this thread to ensure maximum suffering.

CAMs are almost universally northwest of the globals, but that probably doesn't mean a whole lot as they kind of tend to overamp towards the end of their runs.

If it's the UK vs the GFS, I'll be siding with the UK's evolution every time.

Gonna be interesting to see if offices buy into the south trend by tomorrow morning. If not, I'm just not sure what they're thinking... The 18z Euro has nearly all the warning criteria snow south of the current WSWs.

Lots of interesting choices on watches today. They more or less reflect the guidance from yesterday opposed to what we're seeing now. Not entirely sure I follow that line of thinking.

DVN jumped the gun with those and I’m curious to see when they cancel them. It was pretty bullish as far as warnings go too. Only one model shows good snow here now and it’s everyones favorite.

I’m not expecting much from this locally, but I still think 12” is achievable for someone somewhere.

I’ll be on the 2%s, because god knows it doesn’t snow here; so at least I have those. anyways back to your regularly scheduled programming

I’m probably gonna leave the forum for 2 years because I’m upset.

I’m holding out for the NAM... never a good sign. Everything else has dove southeast overnight with the UK and CMC not even showing an inch in my area. GEFS mean has never been good here, but still isn’t. Not sure about the EPS. Trends are absolutely awful for this area and I don’t have much confidence that it corrects northwest. None of the other storms have this season, so why would this one?