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hlcater

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Everything posted by hlcater

  1. hlcater
    Pivotal weather has greatly diversified the amount of data available with the ECMWF. This is gonna be *really* nice. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sfcmslp&rh=2019110312&fh=loop&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=
  2. hlcater
    2.3” measured just a few minutes ago. Snow is coming down at a moderate but sufficient clip. We will oberperform model forecasts if this keeps up. 3” looks like a lock and 4” might be attainable.
  3. hlcater
    DVN definitely feeling bullish for my area. I was hoping for maybe 2 or 3", however with the earlier onset and increased banding, probably gonna end closer to 3". However I think 5" is too high.
  4. hlcater
    Farther east for sure, but I'm wondering if even the effects of ground temps in IA/NW IL may end up being somewhat minimized since the past 4-5 days prior to Wednesday would have been in the 30s/40s. In other news, I also got 2.5" from this system, like many others in my area. Might be able to sneak a few more Wed/Thur, but looking like that system slides to our SE.
  5. hlcater
    While all other models continue to trend weaker and more progressive with the wave, the GFS doubles down, dropping over 15" in eastern Iowa. FV3 core continues to be disappointing.
  6. hlcater
    Yes it's still october, but I'm still gonna reiterate how much effort it has taken to get a phased, wound up system(snow or not) in the midwest lately. Seems weak, strung out, progressive waves are the preferred outcome in the majority of cases.
  7. hlcater
    I remember that early October 2013 system not by the snow, but by the higher end tornado event that ensued over northeast NE and NW IA. Would be nice to see one of those this fall. EDIT: here’s Simon Brewer and Juston Drake’s account of the event for those so inclined. https://stormgasmcom.wordpress.com/2013/10/23/october-4-2013-tornado-outbreak/
  8. hlcater
    It’s just their climatology. Dry and super cold is what they do best.
  9. hlcater
    Wouldn't be surprised to see a 5% introduced across central IA later. Plenty of 0-3km CAPE available, along with half decent turning in the low levels. Just hinges on discrete/semi discrete activity.
  10. hlcater
    Gonna have a hard time getting tornadoes with such a stable near surface environment. The only potential for surface based storms appears to be S of 74. Probably gonna be some decent hail reports regardless.
  11. hlcater
    Might be earth relative. Would explain why it looks closed on visible but not on recon. With 0kt flow on the southern side of the low essentially "closing" it off as it moves NW
  12. hlcater
    I think calling it a TC at this point may be a bit generous...
  13. hlcater
    With the rain we've had so far this month, the rain coming this weekend from the remnants of Imelda, and a seemingly wet upcoming 2 weeks, we are well on the road recovering our deficits from late summer and should have a shot of finishing near/above normal precip on the year.
  14. hlcater
    And we have TS Imelda at 1pm CDT.
  15. hlcater
    the point of my post is that dvorak blows and should only be used if there are literally no better alternatives
  16. hlcater
    Because everyone knows that Dvorak is the best intensity estimation method out there, firmly beating recon aircraft in every metric.
  17. hlcater
    why people continue to feed/interact with SENC is beyond me
  18. hlcater
    What’s most surprising to me is all that water.
  19. hlcater
    Yea, rather impressive wake low/MCV this morning. Not to mention this series of MCSs is doing wonders for our dry stretch.
  20. hlcater
    Levi changed the way the maps load to make them load slower to reduce server load. Now instead of loading all the frames at once, it only loads the current and then a few on either side.
  21. hlcater
    Surprised they introduced D1, it’s been fairly wet here recently, or at least enough to green things up a bit.
  22. hlcater
    I didn’t see it, but I know a few people that did.
  23. hlcater
    Looking like there’s pretty solid chances for a strong/severe MCS somewhere across E IA and W IL come Monday. Might be a shot for an isolated tornado early given rather impressive parameters in place, but seems more liable to go upscale sooner rather than later.
  24. hlcater
    I dont think this will intensify much more. Radar from taiwan is indicative of an EWRC/imperfect core. Passed through at 130kts though, so nothing to scoff at.
  25. hlcater
    Yes, actually, gotta keep the place tidy
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