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hlcater

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Everything posted by hlcater

  1. hlcater
    The HRRR verbatim would be a crippling winter storm over here. 0.10-0.20 of ice here, with 6"+ of snow. Not to mention the light rates of the FZR would be ideal for ice accretion, as well as coming off a single digit arctic airmass yesterday.
  2. hlcater
    High currently over MN is either side of 1050mb currently. Doubt it really matters a whole lot, but this is a few mb stronger than forecast.
  3. hlcater
    DVN opts for WSW for the QCA and Iowa north of I-80. 4-6” with up to 0.10 of ice.
  4. hlcater
  5. hlcater
    Also took a step towards the GFS with the surface trough extending into MN. All but assures a fairly swift transition to rain for many. I think this is the most likely solution. MN/WI continue to look golden though.
  6. hlcater
    I’m still not ready to be an optimist
  7. hlcater
    1337 tornadoes and the first high risk will be on 4/20.
  8. hlcater
    Time to get the lawn chairs out?
  9. hlcater
    Might squeeze some dixie severe out of that.
  10. hlcater
    Looks like yet another 2010s december for the trash bin. Yippee1
  11. hlcater
    where we can have split flow in April to maximize suffering.
  12. hlcater
    Pivotal weather has greatly diversified the amount of data available with the ECMWF. This is gonna be *really* nice. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sfcmslp&rh=2019110312&fh=loop&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=
  13. hlcater
    I remember that early October 2013 system not by the snow, but by the higher end tornado event that ensued over northeast NE and NW IA. Would be nice to see one of those this fall. EDIT: here’s Simon Brewer and Juston Drake’s account of the event for those so inclined. https://stormgasmcom.wordpress.com/2013/10/23/october-4-2013-tornado-outbreak/
  14. hlcater
    It’s just their climatology. Dry and super cold is what they do best.
  15. hlcater
    the point of my post is that dvorak blows and should only be used if there are literally no better alternatives
  16. hlcater
    Because everyone knows that Dvorak is the best intensity estimation method out there, firmly beating recon aircraft in every metric.
  17. hlcater
    why people continue to feed/interact with SENC is beyond me
  18. hlcater
    What’s most surprising to me is all that water.
  19. hlcater
    I dont think this will intensify much more. Radar from taiwan is indicative of an EWRC/imperfect core. Passed through at 130kts though, so nothing to scoff at.
  20. hlcater
    the thread that never dies
  21. hlcater
    Tomorrow looks decent, but I think wednesday looks likely to grow upscale into an MCS rather quickly.
  22. hlcater
    That 12z euro was TERRIBLE. In fact, I don’t think I’ve ever seen a worse 10 day run.
  23. hlcater
    Probably. We aren’t at record lows(yet) and still have the rest of may, June and July to go. Shots at 1000 closing fast. Best guess I have right now is 800-900
  24. hlcater
    Guys! The ERTAF is showing some hope in the long range! http://atlas.niu.edu/ertaf/
  25. hlcater
    Well the primary jet really likes the northern conus and Canada, so I think sustained periods of AOA 40kts flow over the plains will be hard to come by. Thinking “day-of” events, upslope and boundaries are going to rule the 2nd half of may. However, with sufficient moisture and instability, this can work.
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