hlcater

What makes you think that? Especially seeing as it is likely we more or less lose the first 10-15 days of the month. Long range looks slightly better, but even still it doesn’t even look that great, just seasonable. Though even seasonable is something significant considering the run of poor Decembers we’re on.

Wind threat looks pretty substantial(regionally speaking) and I’m hoping we can squeeze out a few 60mph gusts tomorrow. Even if we don’t get that, 50-55mph seems like a lock.

Kinda neat to see LES off of a relatively small body of water.

Pivotal weather has greatly diversified the amount of data available with the ECMWF. This is gonna be *really* nice. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sfcmslp&rh=2019110312&fh=loop&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

I remember that early October 2013 system not by the snow, but by the higher end tornado event that ensued over northeast NE and NW IA. Would be nice to see one of those this fall. EDIT: here’s Simon Brewer and Juston Drake’s account of the event for those so inclined. https://stormgasmcom.wordpress.com/2013/10/23/october-4-2013-tornado-outbreak/

It’s just their climatology. Dry and super cold is what they do best.

Wouldn't be surprised to see a 5% introduced across central IA later. Plenty of 0-3km CAPE available, along with half decent turning in the low levels. Just hinges on discrete/semi discrete activity.

Gonna have a hard time getting tornadoes with such a stable near surface environment. The only potential for surface based storms appears to be S of 74. Probably gonna be some decent hail reports regardless.

the point of my post is that dvorak blows and should only be used if there are literally no better alternatives

Because everyone knows that Dvorak is the best intensity estimation method out there, firmly beating recon aircraft in every metric.

why people continue to feed/interact with SENC is beyond me

What’s most surprising to me is all that water.

I didn’t see it, but I know a few people that did.

Looking like there’s pretty solid chances for a strong/severe MCS somewhere across E IA and W IL come Monday. Might be a shot for an isolated tornado early given rather impressive parameters in place, but seems more liable to go upscale sooner rather than later.

I dont think this will intensify much more. Radar from taiwan is indicative of an EWRC/imperfect core. Passed through at 130kts though, so nothing to scoff at.

HRRR and other CAMs are still pretty gung ho on supercells this evening across central and E IA, however CAMs are doing a terrible job handling the MCS in NW IA right now, so I’m highly doubting these solutions.

Nice little MCS here in CR. Had numerous 50-60mph wind gusts as the gust front passed through.

I think we'll be too far SW, especially initially, but it seems plausible that the ridge settles into a more traditional position centered over the Panhandles with time. Once this happens a more favorable pattern for severe weather/NW flow may return, but I think this is at least 8 or 9 days out. For now, areas in the northeast of the sub have the greatest chances.

The upcoming pattern isn't great at all for severe lovers, which is bad news considering severe weather never really showed up for western portions of the sub(though IN has been having a great season so far). All models build in a suffocating ridge centered directly over the midwest and keep it there for at least a week. Think it's safe to write off any notable chances for severe weather until at least the 4th, if not later. Tomorrow holds some conditional chances of an MCS for IA/IL, but I would like a respectable setup worth chasing. Too much to ask for? Apparently so. As of now, I think I'd have to put the season so far as the worst one since 2013 in my area.

The local severe season has kinda sucked so far, not gonna lie.

From a tornadoes standpoint, Thursday looks more interesting to me than Friday does(Friday seems like it's gonna be upscale city). Very subtle/low key setup in central/western IA but CAMs this evening seem to agree decently enough on 1-2 supercells in a solid environment. SPC doesn't even acknowledge this potential, which for some reason makes me more enthusiastic about it given Iowa's track record with SPC outlooks.

I'm starting to take a rather keen interest in Friday and Saturday for the potential of significant severe weather. A fairly potent upper level system should be centered over the Northern Rockies leaving a belt of seasonally impressive 40-50kt 500mb flow over western parts of the subforum. Friday seems like a fairly typical midwestern warm front setup and the shear parameters along this warm front and at the TP could be quite good with both the FV3 and the legacy GFS indicating 0-1km SRH values of at least 250 m2/s2. Only things I don't like at this range are the weak anvil level winds and poor low level lapse rates(though mid level lapse rates look good at this time courtesy of an EML). Saturday is a bit more of a wild card and obviously depends on how Friday turns out, but the look at 500mb isn't terrible, so I think there's some potential that day as well. EDIT: I've also noticed that PWATs are quite high (~2.00in) and with a strong low level jet and a warm front, probably some potential for training heavy rainfall.

Blue box out for much of IA

It was a landspout.

Yea, didn’t look like it hit any significant structures.