hlcater

We couldnt use the short/medium severe thread for a slight risk?

This pattern we’ve been in for the past month is insufferable. Unsurprisingly, D0 has begun to show up like a rash across portions of the sub.

Really starting to get concerned with drought prospects around here after our dry July and likely dry start to August. Probably going to see a rather rapid expansion of D0 and maybe introduction of D1 for some.

supercell structure immediately south of St. Cloud organizing.

Super outflow dominant, looks exactly how I expected it would. 0 tornado threat with that storm. The one to the east however, is working on becoming surface based. It could produce, but strength/longevity of any tornado may be precluded by more linear convection developing to the south and west.

Funnel cloud on a storm with no 0-3km CAPE, no surface based parcels and that's outflow dominant? I understand covering your bases and being safe but I'd probably call BS on a funnel report, even from a trained spotter, in the environment that storm is in unless I had a picture.

No idea why, those storms are almost certainly at least somewhat elevated.

Those supercells are well elevated at this time. I'd watch for more development on the front down by Benson where there is currently a patch of agitated cumulus. I do think storms up by Little Falls do eventually become surface based, but probably not within the next hour.

HRRR and other CAMs are still pretty gung ho on supercells this evening across central and E IA, however CAMs are doing a terrible job handling the MCS in NW IA right now, so I’m highly doubting these solutions.

Fine with me. I hate heat.

Sounds rough but lucky injuries weren’t worse. An injury you can recover from, no matter how long it takes, is better than something that’s permenant. Wishing you best.

Yuck at the upcoming pattern. Hot and dry is my least favorite weather. If models are correct, interestingly some spots might be starting to look at drought concerns in 10 days or so. The GFSs have backed off on precip thru D10 as well. I dont know how I posted that in the OH thread, but I did, but now its here.

Random question here, does anyone know if the FV3 is ocean coupled?

Models this morning have relaxed the ridge just a little bit allowing a few thunderstorm chances to creep in over the next 7 days along the periphery of the ridge while areas immediately to our south and west continue to dry out.

I too had a really solid funnel yesterday, not totally sure if it was down, but assume it was at least briefly as there were times when it was 1/2 to 2/3rds the way down. DVN knows about it so I presume they’ll probably try and find some damage if it was really down.

Cicadas are gross.

Nice little MCS here in CR. Had numerous 50-60mph wind gusts as the gust front passed through.

This MCS has an impressively dense canopy and combined with a cold pool that’s still well in place, we might struggle to reach posted highs 88-90. It’s still only 68 at noon.

I think we'll be too far SW, especially initially, but it seems plausible that the ridge settles into a more traditional position centered over the Panhandles with time. Once this happens a more favorable pattern for severe weather/NW flow may return, but I think this is at least 8 or 9 days out. For now, areas in the northeast of the sub have the greatest chances.

The upcoming pattern isn't great at all for severe lovers, which is bad news considering severe weather never really showed up for western portions of the sub(though IN has been having a great season so far). All models build in a suffocating ridge centered directly over the midwest and keep it there for at least a week. Think it's safe to write off any notable chances for severe weather until at least the 4th, if not later. Tomorrow holds some conditional chances of an MCS for IA/IL, but I would like a respectable setup worth chasing. Too much to ask for? Apparently so. As of now, I think I'd have to put the season so far as the worst one since 2013 in my area.

The local severe season has kinda sucked so far, not gonna lie.

From a tornadoes standpoint, Thursday looks more interesting to me than Friday does(Friday seems like it's gonna be upscale city). Very subtle/low key setup in central/western IA but CAMs this evening seem to agree decently enough on 1-2 supercells in a solid environment. SPC doesn't even acknowledge this potential, which for some reason makes me more enthusiastic about it given Iowa's track record with SPC outlooks.

Seems like NAM is suffering from convective feedback. Surprising right?

I'm starting to take a rather keen interest in Friday and Saturday for the potential of significant severe weather. A fairly potent upper level system should be centered over the Northern Rockies leaving a belt of seasonally impressive 40-50kt 500mb flow over western parts of the subforum. Friday seems like a fairly typical midwestern warm front setup and the shear parameters along this warm front and at the TP could be quite good with both the FV3 and the legacy GFS indicating 0-1km SRH values of at least 250 m2/s2. Only things I don't like at this range are the weak anvil level winds and poor low level lapse rates(though mid level lapse rates look good at this time courtesy of an EML). Saturday is a bit more of a wild card and obviously depends on how Friday turns out, but the look at 500mb isn't terrible, so I think there's some potential that day as well. EDIT: I've also noticed that PWATs are quite high (~2.00in) and with a strong low level jet and a warm front, probably some potential for training heavy rainfall.