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Everything posted by hlcater

  1. Exactly. Upper 50s dews could work with a better developed low and a bit better of a lapse rate plume (as illustrated on the 00z run), but the low 50s present on the 12z arent gonna cut it, especially as the lapse rates arent as good either. Biggest issue is low lat trough that scours the gulf in 3-4 days, and this time of year, you need a lot of recovery time to really get that better moisture north of dixie. I'm interested in what follows this system, which should have better moisture to work with than this one will.
  2. crush em with the low 50s dews on that run
  3. The thing with this season is that the overall pattern, long range climatological guidance, and analog set(I'm using 2011, 2018, 2009, 2008, 1976 and 1974) are all suggestive that this is a severe season that peaks in March and April before simmering down into May and June with expanding drought in the plains and potentially western sub by July and August (especially if we start heading towards a 2nd year nina). Obviously not a surefire thing, but taking what is shown at face value, I'm not about to count on May and June to roar in well above average. Who knows, I might be eating boots by then.
  4. I hear flights to Barrow are due to resume in a few weeks as summer comes around.
  5. Today's snowfall of 2.7" bumped me across the 50" line for the season!
  6. The tornado ongoing near Shallotte NC isnt weak.
  7. The northern edge of the snow shield is creeping up this way. Ready to be demolished.
  8. Expecting about an inch in Iowa City. Gonna be an all timer for the lower OV though.
  9. better post it before it goes away
  10. Will talk away with about 2" here. Still coming down at a moderate clip but not for much longer
  11. Photogenic stuff coming your way. Massive flakes.
  12. This may be a flooding problem at some point down the road. Especially if there's a hard cutter or otherwise rapid warm up.
  13. KCID is down to -18 right now. Impressive stuff.
  14. Some sweet sundogs and light pillars this evening from a friend in waterloo.
  15. Very picturesque snowglobe event at the DVN office right now! Look at those huge half dollar sized flakes gently falling with no wind.
  16. Blizzard criteria officially met at CID.
  17. This was their story immediately before that, as of 10pm last night.
  18. This is quite a storm here. Especially seeing as we probably only have 4-5” of new snow once this is all said and done. Obs/webcams/road conditions suggest blizzard criteria will easily be met across northwestern portions of DVN’s CWA. That, combined with their forecast of only 1-2” for IC and 2-3” for CR, they really dropped the ball with this one. As much as I hate to say it.
  19. Hands? Frozen. Coat? Soaked. Jebwalk? Complete.
  20. Yea models are generally underdoing WAA. Probably of little practical significance other than perhaps a slight delay to the changeover to snow.
  21. Squeeze play? Dont tell wallstreetbets
  22. Yea think this one will probably be a higher confidence scenario track wise. With the block over the pole, there's a limit to how far northward this can reasonably track, and the flexing SE ridge should limit the ability for this to end up super suppressed. In fact, the more the ridge presses and tightens the baroclinic zone, the greater the likelihood of a more organized system imo. That polar airmass will be entrenched at the surface and tough to move, which may lend itself to an ice scenario for someone, especially if we get a more well defined system with a moderate/strong WAA regime out in front.
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