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hlcater

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Everything posted by hlcater

  1. Respectfully, tossing a model simply because it’s too far north isn’t really worthwhile. I agree that it probably is, but the issue arises when you’ve made what is essentially the same post 15 times in the same thread without providing any reasoning as to why other than “too far north”. For example, you could make the argument that dry NEly flow eats away at low/mid level RH and prevents precip from spreading as far north as some models think it will. This is certainly the case for the models showing heavy snow to the hwy 20 corridor and may well be the case for Cedar Rapids as well, though seems unlikely from preventing us from seeing at least 4.”
  2. HRRR coming south again. CR will be left out of the good snow this run. Trend never fails.
  3. HRRR comes in way north and at the top of the QPF envelope. Not really sure what to think. The HRRR has consistently been on the north/stronger end of potential track solutions, and even at this range, I don't think that is something that can be entirely discounted anymore given the consistency that has been seen. But then again, the tendency for higher res guidance to be north in longer ranges is omnipresent.
  4. I thought it might come back south some. It’s still a somewhat northward outlier against the rest of guidance. And knowing CAMs tend to be a bit amped in their longer ranges makes me skeptical.
  5. You can’t really ask for more than the 00z HRRR. Good for everyone really. Still thinking the HRRR is liable to be too far north.
  6. I didnt even know there was a Korean model
  7. That won't happen. I think our clearest avenue to 6" is more QPF with the system in general (ie stronger/wider band of snowfall) rather than a track shift. There is a very strong consensus on a SE IA thru Chicago track.
  8. Think I'm probably going to throw in the towel for a 6" snow for CR. Thinking the max band ends up somwhere near washington, IA through evanston or so. Gonna go with a first call of 4"
  9. hoping for a 50 mile shift northward. Though this seems unlikely with the way things seem to be evolving
  10. Losing confidence in the weekend storm for my area. A whiff south seems most likely.
  11. This would be fascinating. General consensus of potential for 2-4" on higher res guidance with a very narrow band of snow traversing the region tomorrow evening.
  12. Snow is wrapping up. Looking close to 3”. Very respectable and more than I thought
  13. Interesting how snow totals have increased even though the track has trended south.
  14. Would probably go with a WWA for north and eastern portions of the DVN CWA given potential for briefly heavy rates during the morning commute, along with the fact that this will be the first impactful snow event of the entire season. Though forecast soundings overwhelmingly support small flake size out this way, so I question how heavy rates will actually be. Let's rephrase that to "reduced visibility"
  15. It’s a widespread 8-10” on kuchera. Isolated 12” in S IA
  16. Looks like a 1-3” system out this way on the morning guidance. After this December, even that is welcome.
  17. There's quite a lot of cold air/higher pressures to the north of the system in Canada pressing down. Think that suppresses the system at least some. The EC depiction from earlier today seemed like the most likely outcome to me.
  18. expecting the track to end up flatter than that in reality.
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