hlcater
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Everything posted by hlcater
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Keep in mind the moat will collapse as soon as the storm starts to feel the effects of land interaction. EWRC came but not quick enough.
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Mesovorts present in the eyewall. We are losing pressure and fast.
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If this is the pace that is being set for the rest of the night, I wouldn't be surprised to see 940mb by 12z tomorrow.
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Jim Tang and Matt Coker will be there. As will Ryan Hearne/Ryan Darr.
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If we were doing ~3.5mb/hr earlier, pressure is probably in free fall now. Closed -70 ring, universally cooling CDO and multiple convective bursts on all sides of the eyewall.
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Starting to get an inner wind maximum indicative of greater core organization.
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Well okay, think of it this way, when there’s continuous play by play with “this is the best it’s looked!!!1!1!!1!!” chances are the storm isn’t struggling at all, but rather continuing to steadily intensify.
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I'm not sure why everyone seems to be so convinced that the storm is struggling. It's deepened more than 12mb since this morning. I'm not really sure what people expected?
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More important than the pressure I think is the configuration of the core windfield. It's still quite broad and an intense inner wind max hasn't really developed yet. It has some work to do yet, and my guess is that the intense eyewall and inner wind max develops once we get a few really good, intense convective bursts in the core.
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What do you think about peak intensity?
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Seeing some symmetry in convective bursts as well, at least relative to this morning. Tonight will be very interesting as it traverses the warmest part of the loop current at Dmax
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Nah its still intensifying except thunderstorms in the eyewall have shrouded the eye. It's deceptive.
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#1 #2 #3 #4 #5
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Saw 5 tornadoes. Will post pics tomorrow.
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Ida is moving at quite the clip to be fair. It probably only spends 3-4 hours over Cuba. Looks to miss Isla de Juventud to the east too.
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Today is looking like a must chase along the IA/MN border. Gonna do my best to be there but I cant leave IC any earlier than 1:30
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Thinking Ida is in the midst of an RI episode right now. Very intense convective burst overhead which corresponds to an intense curved inner band (formative eyewall?) on recon data. We'll have a hurricane before the sun sets tonight.
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The area of Cuba that Ida will be tracking over is relatively flat forest land. Not horribly unlike the Yucatán.
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You clearly aren't very familiar with what board you're on .
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Convective bursts ongoing overtop the center currently. Actually, they may be slightly offset to the northeast.
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The GFS's depiction of the gulf as 99L traverses it is exceptionally favorable for a significant tropical cyclone to say the least. Whew.
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Strong updrafts crashing into stable air at the surface is the secret sauce.
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4 MCSs in 1 image, all along the same boundary. Very impressive.
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It's been having bursts of convection more often than not over the past 72 hours. It's absolutely a TC. Barely, but sometimes barely is all you need.
