hlcater

Expecting about an inch in Iowa City. Gonna be an all timer for the lower OV though.

better post it before it goes away

Will talk away with about 2" here. Still coming down at a moderate clip but not for much longer

Photogenic stuff coming your way. Massive flakes.

This may be a flooding problem at some point down the road. Especially if there's a hard cutter or otherwise rapid warm up.

KCID is down to -18 right now. Impressive stuff.

Some sweet sundogs and light pillars this evening from a friend in waterloo.

Very picturesque snowglobe event at the DVN office right now! Look at those huge half dollar sized flakes gently falling with no wind.

Blizzard criteria officially met at CID.

This was their story immediately before that, as of 10pm last night.

This is quite a storm here. Especially seeing as we probably only have 4-5” of new snow once this is all said and done. Obs/webcams/road conditions suggest blizzard criteria will easily be met across northwestern portions of DVN’s CWA. That, combined with their forecast of only 1-2” for IC and 2-3” for CR, they really dropped the ball with this one. As much as I hate to say it.

Hands? Frozen. Coat? Soaked. Jebwalk? Complete.

Yea models are generally underdoing WAA. Probably of little practical significance other than perhaps a slight delay to the changeover to snow.

Squeeze play? Dont tell wallstreetbets

Yea think this one will probably be a higher confidence scenario track wise. With the block over the pole, there's a limit to how far northward this can reasonably track, and the flexing SE ridge should limit the ability for this to end up super suppressed. In fact, the more the ridge presses and tightens the baroclinic zone, the greater the likelihood of a more organized system imo. That polar airmass will be entrenched at the surface and tough to move, which may lend itself to an ice scenario for someone, especially if we get a more well defined system with a moderate/strong WAA regime out in front.

What sacrifices do I need to make to lock this in? We'd be looking at a whopping 40" snow depth considering there's already 15-18" on the ground in CR....

Yea can we consider merging some of the next week threads into one "clipper train" thread? @Hoosier?

we wont be

There's been a Wisconsinan, Illinoian, Nebraskan and Kansan glaciation. Time to rebuild the Laurentide ice sheet and call it the Iowan glaciation

Holy mother of blocks

This is more for W IL and IA, but one thing to keep in mind with this system are the pristine conditions that will exist for blowing and drifting snow associated with the passage of the arctic front and departing low. GFSs gust 45-50mph, NAM/Euro 40-45. Additionally, rain showers and melting in the warm sector will ensure that the existing snowpack will have a layer of ice on top of it, exacerbating any blowing that does occur.

Some of these GFS runs (with some support of GEFS) just keep reloading the cold over and over again through the middle of the month; very Feb 2019 style.

The plume of steep mid level lapse rates shares some overlap with the arctic front/cold sector immediately behind the low as well. Pretty nice soundings for snow all and all...

While verifying the 9.7” family got, they sent a pic of about 8.5” on the driveway. While still very impressive; that seems more reasonable to me and I think I’m gonna go with that instead.