hlcater

80/20 mix of plain rain and sleet right now. Temp on my deck is 33.3. HRRR shows a fairly quick changeover here in a few hours, so we'll see.

It also hangs the deformation zone over E IA for several hours early tomorrow morning. Which is why we see 6" as opposed to the 4" it would be otherwise.

The reason Iowa gets totally screwed is that there's this inverted trough that extends northward to the MN border that wasn't previously forced to be there. This greatly strengthens the power of WAA, and in such a marginal situation, those few degrees were degrees we couldnt afford to lose. The CAMs have this feature, while many of the globals do not. Will be interesting to see who is correct. Gonna assume it's the CAMs.

Lowering my IC call to 2". Expecting the majority of precip to fall as rain. Rain on top of 8" of snow, positively gross.

Not seeing much reason to modify my 3" call for IC. Things generally look to start as rain here and transition to snow overnight. One potential wildcard in heavy rates forcing a switch quicker than anticipated, or more snow behind the low than currently forecast.

Trend tonight has been a bit more rain than earlier runs for those west. As such, I'm gonna have a conservative first call of just 3" for Iowa City as I expect to lose a good 0.2-0.3 QPF to rain.

What about the presence of existing higher ratio snowfall complicating things? That may even blow more than the falling snow, at least until it gets BURIED.

Sign me up for the next one. Unironically might have to consider the prospect of chasing derechos now.

12" is the number to break and, officially, has held since 1973.

That's not true. GHD I and II both dropped double digits here.

missed these takes buddy, welcome back!

NE/SD/MN special. Looks like a classic wound up cutter.

Can someone post the mean and members? Thanks in advance

E IA and N IL should comfortably pass 1 month of continuous snowcover. Wonder when the last time that happened was. Has been awhile, that's for sure.

Took an average of 7.6" in downtown IC. Family measured 6.8" in northern Hiawatha. CR was the local screw zone for this.

Snow is about to resume in Iowa city. Hopefully these hang around through tomorrow as modeled and add a few more inches. 6” call for CR/IC is looking solid.

The players on the field here are mostly the same as for the last system. Big block over hudson bay and some confluent flow out east. If I had to stab, I would say that this is rather unlikely to be a big rainer for the sub, especially east of the Mississippi and that even if it does rain, a front end thump looks likely.

dry slot incoming for IC. Hopefully it's not too long lasting. Sitting about 3-3.5".

Looking through guidance, all of them had CR under an inch through 00z with most of the meaningful precip falling overnight.

I'm already up to 2.5". Big band of probably 1-2"/hr getting ready to move in. Dry air has poked in, but posed only minimal issues here so far. Still outpacing 12z precip guidance.

disappointment, in 3 parts

1.1" down in IC.

Yea I'm gonna stick to my 6" call just for the sake of consistency, though the earlier start and decent banding with solid dendrites per webcams evident in central Iowa may provide a pathway to 8 or 9". Not especially confident in that occurring however, and 6" is probably a decent floor.

Top down saturation is nearly immediate. Already snowing in IC. The dry layer on the DVN 12z sounding was really quite modest so it is reasonable to assume this should continue to be the case further east.

There's significant system in the long range (~252) with a fairly decent amount of deterministic and ensemble support. Powerhouse longwave trough traverses the country during the period and assuming a neg tilt/quality ejection from the 4 corners, could lead to a significant system for someone somewhere in the midwest. Meanwhile in the warm sector, assuming moisture, the general look aloft is analogous to significant severe weather outbreaks in the lower OV and Dixie. One of the better GEFS analogs upstairs is 2/5/2008.....