hlcater

Of course I check in here and see someone posting the GFDL C-Shield lol.

There's this super subtle detail on the HRRR that I think is likely responsible for the heavier snow further south. On the 18z run, there's a patch of really quite dry surface dewpoints in the mid to upper teens that gets advected in later tonight. As this area of lower dews gets moistened, it increases the effects of evap cooling and leads to an overall cooler column than other models at the same time ---> heavier snow further south. It's more evident on skew Ts but I cant gif those

you called?

Felt like spring watching dry air entrained towers in Mason City too. We love that feeling

Solid A here. Overall a very consistent winter that had almost everything you could ask for out here. All 3 months finished AA for snowfall, will finish with ~65 days of continuous snow depth and had arctic cold. Like Hawkeye said, the one thing this winter lacked is a big storm and for that reason, I'm not gonna give it an A+.

Exactly. Upper 50s dews could work with a better developed low and a bit better of a lapse rate plume (as illustrated on the 00z run), but the low 50s present on the 12z arent gonna cut it, especially as the lapse rates arent as good either. Biggest issue is low lat trough that scours the gulf in 3-4 days, and this time of year, you need a lot of recovery time to really get that better moisture north of dixie. I'm interested in what follows this system, which should have better moisture to work with than this one will.

crush em with the low 50s dews on that run

The thing with this season is that the overall pattern, long range climatological guidance, and analog set(I'm using 2011, 2018, 2009, 2008, 1976 and 1974) are all suggestive that this is a severe season that peaks in March and April before simmering down into May and June with expanding drought in the plains and potentially western sub by July and August (especially if we start heading towards a 2nd year nina). Obviously not a surefire thing, but taking what is shown at face value, I'm not about to count on May and June to roar in well above average. Who knows, I might be eating boots by then.

I hear flights to Barrow are due to resume in a few weeks as summer comes around.

Today's snowfall of 2.7" bumped me across the 50" line for the season!

0.8" measured in Iowa City!

The tornado ongoing near Shallotte NC isnt weak.

pixie dustin

The northern edge of the snow shield is creeping up this way. Ready to be demolished.

Expecting about an inch in Iowa City. Gonna be an all timer for the lower OV though.

better post it before it goes away

Will talk away with about 2" here. Still coming down at a moderate clip but not for much longer

Photogenic stuff coming your way. Massive flakes.

This may be a flooding problem at some point down the road. Especially if there's a hard cutter or otherwise rapid warm up.

KCID is down to -18 right now. Impressive stuff.

Some sweet sundogs and light pillars this evening from a friend in waterloo.

Very picturesque snowglobe event at the DVN office right now! Look at those huge half dollar sized flakes gently falling with no wind.

Blizzard criteria officially met at CID.

This was their story immediately before that, as of 10pm last night.