The reason Iowa gets totally screwed is that there's this inverted trough that extends northward to the MN border that wasn't previously forced to be there. This greatly strengthens the power of WAA, and in such a marginal situation, those few degrees were degrees we couldnt afford to lose.
The CAMs have this feature, while many of the globals do not. Will be interesting to see who is correct. Gonna assume it's the CAMs.