SENC

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About SENC

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KILM
  • Location:
    Sloop Point/Topsail Sound/ICW/Surf City/Topsail Island
  • Interests
    Weather, (Of course!), FISHING, BOATING, Oystering & Crabbing/Clamming, Gardening, While NOT a Climate Change cult member, (It's just the Weather)..

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  1. Morning Folks.. Another beautiful Day on Tap for the Coast! 77/54 Currently 54F.. (Loving this Pattern Change)! Clear Skies, No wind(s) to speak of.. Well outta the North @ 2mph.. Your current Beach Conditions.. Water Temp is still at a toasty 84F Winds light WNW @ 4 mph.. Waves/swell, 1ft and the Ocean looks like a lake.. Honestly, This September, with the Pattern change, feels like, the "Fall" Weather when, I was Young & growing up in the 70's.. Starting school and there was a chill in the air in the mornings.. Unlike the past several, Sept. & Octobers, (like last year) We were still being "BAKED" under 90F+ temps and Dew/Humidity's near 90% .. This is certainly a VERY Welcome respite.. Lordy, I'm almost tempted to turn on the HEAT this Morning!
  2. 53/72 Currently 68 & breezy.. Carolina Blue Skies.. Winds out of the N @ 10mph On the Beach... NE Winds 15~20, gusting to 30MPH.. Waves: Lets go Surfing! Nice Swells this Morning 6 too 7 feet, Kinda Choppy, (Due to Wind), though VERY Surfable!
  3. NHC Disco/Update on Teddy this Morning.. 000 WTNT45 KNHC 200850 TCDAT5 Hurricane Teddy Discussion Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 500 AM AST Sun Sep 20 2020 The convective structure of Teddy has degraded substantially since the last advisory, with no sign of an eye in conventional satellite imagery. The most recent available microwave imagery from last night suggested that Teddy still had a very well defined low to mid-level inner-core, but this has not translated to the higher levels more apparent at night. Intensity estimates have decreased, so the initial intensity has been lowered slightly to 100 kt for this advisory. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the hurricane later this morning and should provide more information about its structure and strength. Teddy's evolution for the next few days appears to be a tale of 3 troughs. Upper-level westerly flow associated with the first upper-level trough, affecting the storm now, is the most likely reason why the hurricane's structure has degraded and has taken on a slightly sheared appearance. Teddy will begin to encounter the 2nd trough, a deep frontal system approaching from the west, later today and that should cause the hurricane to turn north. This interaction should steer the center of Teddy east of Bermuda, but tropical storm impacts from either the large hurricane, the frontal system, or both are still likely Sunday evening through Monday night. All indications are that Teddy will then continue generally northward and merge with the frontal system, nearing Nova Scotia as an extratropical cyclone early Wednesday. Teddy's maximum winds will likely decrease sharply after it becomes post-tropical, as shown by all the intensity guidance, but its gale and storm-force wind radii will likely increase at the same time. The cyclone should turn northeastward as the 3rd trough, another mid-latitude system, approaches from the west. Teddy could be absorbed by that feature in as soon as 120 h, though this is not explicitly shown in the forecast at this time. The spread in the track and intensity guidance is quite low and confidence in both aspects of the forecast is high. There is a little more uncertainty in the wind radii evolution, but it is clear that Teddy will produce strong winds over a wide area of the northwest Atlantic during the next couple of days. The extent of 12-foot or higher seas associated with Teddy continues to increase. See the Key Message below regarding swells caused by the hurricane. 1. The center of Teddy is forecast to move east of Bermuda late Sunday or Monday. Tropical storm conditions are likely on the island beginning this evening and could continue into Monday evening. 2. Teddy is expected to transition to a powerful post-tropical cyclone as it moves near or over portions of Atlantic Canada early next week, where there is an increasing risk of direct impacts from wind, rain, and storm surge. Residents there should closely monitor the progress of Teddy and updates to the forecast. 3. Large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affect portions of the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
  4. NHC Disco/Update... Beta has generally changed little overnight. The storm remains strongly sheared with deep convection confined to the north and northeast of the low-level center. A combination of flight-level, SFMR, and dropsonde data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters a few hours ago supports keeping the 50-kt initial intensity. It should be noted that the wind field is quite asymmetric with the strongest winds located in the deep convection and farther to the northeast behind an old frontal boundary. Beta was caught in weak steering currents for nearly a day, but it now seems to be moving. The current initial motion estimate is west-northwestward at 3 kt. A mid-level ridge currently centered over the southwestern U.S. is forecast to slide eastward, which should cause Beta to move a little faster to the west-northwestward later today. This motion should continue for a couple of days, taking the storm to the Texas coast on Monday or Monday night. After Beta moves inland, the ridge is forecast to move away as a shortwave trough approaches from the west. This change in the pattern is expected to cause Beta to slow down, or even stall, on Tuesday and then turn northeastward after that. The NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope, and it is fairly similar to the previous prediction. The tropical storm is currently in an environment of about 20 kt of southwesterly wind shear and a fair amount of dry air, especially on the west side of the circulation. Since the shear is not expected to decrease much while Beta moves into an even drier and more stable air mass, little change in intensity is expected through landfall in 36 to 48 hours. After Beta moves inland, steady weakening is forecast due to a combination of land interaction, dry air, and an increase in southwesterly shear. The models are in fair agreement, and this forecast is largely an update of the previous one.
  5. It is unclear if Wilfred still exists, and if so, exactly where it is located. Although there is clear evidence of a broad elongated circulation, the formerly small center of Wilfred is either obscured by higher clouds or has dissipated. AMSR-2 microwave imagery at 0431 UTC showed only evidence of a northwest-southeast oriented trough with one or more embedded mesoscale lows. Visible imagery and the next round of ASCAT passes will hopefully provide more information about Wilfred's status later this morning. The intensity remains 35 kt based on ASCAT data from last night, but more recent Dvorak estimates are lower. Due to the uncertainty associated with Wilfred's status and location, the motion estimate is a very uncertain 295/15 kt. In general, Wilfred or its eventual remnants should continue on a west-northwestward heading today, and then could turn westward by early Monday. The NHC forecast is very similar to the previous one and lies near the middle of the guidance suite. Virtually no change has been made to the official intensity forecast. Wilfred will likely gradually weaken until it dissipates due to a combination of increasing wind shear and a dry environment. The exact point at which Wilfred will become a trough varies from model to model, but confidence is fairly high that Wilfred won't last much longer than another day or two. The NHC forecast carries Wilfred for 48 h based on persistence from the previous advisory, but if recent trends hold, it could dissipate as soon as later today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0900Z 15.0N 42.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 20/1800Z 15.7N 44.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 21/0600Z 16.2N 46.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 21/1800Z 16.5N 48.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 22/0600Z 16.7N 50.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 60H 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED
  6. 5 Days without Rain & tolerable temps? I'll gladly take it.. Even Muh Rice Paddy was "drowning"
  7. Good Morning My fellow Weather Nerds! I hope everyone is Loving this "Pattern change", (I know I am).. NO, the Fish are NOT "running" yet.. (Spots & Kings etc..) Current Conditions.. (On the Beach) Water Temp currently is.. 82F Winds are from the North @ 10-15 gusting to 24 mph Swells (waves) are at 4' to 5' from the ESE and Sloppy.. ICW condition(s).. Low of 57F High of 67F, 73F, forecasted for today Pressure 30.23 in Partly Cloudy w/Visibility 10 miles Dew Point 53 F Humidity 75 % Precipitation 0.00 inches The Weather went from 95 to 55.. Like it saw a State Trooper..
  8. Well, this *tweet* aged well.. (The) Hybrid low west of Portugal have LOW (re)formation chances..
  9. Let me try, see if this works.. Image link, (shear overlaid w/Water Vapor) http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/storm.frame.php?&basin=atlantic&sname=98L&invest=YES&zoom=8&img=5&vars=1010100000100000000000000&loop=0&llval=
  10. Lordy,, Orangeburgwx, I wouldn't have figured you to be a "Race Fan".. That said... Back to Wilfred.. Going with the Theme of It's being 2020, Unexpected things have Happened that Surprised ALL of US, Forcaster(s) AND the NHC.. In the Weather Forecasting World.. (Remembering Laura & Sally & Isaias).. I believe We had better to expect the Unexpected.. Shear, Hispaniola Shedder, Upwelling, TUTTS, Throughs, are seemingly NOT having the "expected" effects, of "dissipation", weakening, or what-have-you. I think We can expect the same with, Wilfred.. I read the NHC Disco, the last two paragraphs were so much "Word salad", I mean, it seems even the NHC is not quite sure what to exactly expect.. Along with the Models, Not having a firm grasp on the future evolutions of this years TC's.. I honestly don't expect Wilfred to fully "dissipate, My "reasoning"??? It's 2020 after all.. Of course 22L.. Failed post race inspection
  11. Well,, that escalated quickly.. Edited Thread Title, to reflect, updated NHC choices..
  12. After this Hyper-Active Tropical Hurricane season,, Going into Fall/Indian Summer.... (Short Lived).. Wouldn't it be "On par" with 2020,, To get a YUGE Blizzard , about Mid-Late October/Early to Mid-November time frame, covering the WHOLE State of NC, et al? Several feet,, in the Mountains, to 12++ inches all the way down to the Coastal Area(s)?? THAT would put a "Night Cap" too 2020 for the Southeastern Forum, Don't cha think?...
  13. SENC

    TD Sally

    T-Storm(s), Very heavy, RAIN ATM, with Pea sized Hail, Lotsa Lighting & Thunder, (currently).. Winds outta the SW-SSW at 18 mph, gusting to, (peak wind gust(s) 56MPH !) .. Here on the ICW.. We are under a Tornado Watch(s).. Temp: 75F Pressure: 29.8 in Visibility: Almost ZERO Dew Point: 74 F Humidity: 91 % Rainfall :0.33+++ (adding (ALOT) more ATM VERY HEAVY Precip)..
  14. SENC

    TD Sally

    Tornado watch,, in My area(s) just received the Alert.. Skies here look,, so 2020 Ominous..