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hlcater

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Everything posted by hlcater

  1. hlcater
    LNK, OMA, SE NE and SW IA are on pace to do well though. OMA is at 3 and LNK is already at 6. Thats more or less what guidance had there through 18z.
  2. hlcater
    Doesnt help that after you get to about 8" or so, you're really fighting midwest climo to go any higher.
  3. hlcater
    Gonna hold my final call at 6" for IC. Not seeing much reason to go higher.
  4. hlcater
    Yea the bleeding for our area has stopped this cycle, thank god.
  5. hlcater
    I wont be disappointed because I'll be in a coma by the time this starts! (real talk, the 00z suite isnt totally awful for our area, so we'll see...........)
  6. hlcater
    Held serve for the places that matter!
  7. hlcater
    Looking at the trends and 18z guidance, gonna have to lower my call for IC from 8" to 6". Might need to readjust again tomorrow morning in either direction if necessary. I question how good of banding/rates/dynamics we're really gonna see out of a low that is rapidly weakening and am making an assumption (perhaps ill informed) that these features will underperform.
  8. hlcater
  9. hlcater
    GFS continues to be one of the wettest models by far.
  10. hlcater
    DVN thinks the trend to crap out the system is overdone on models, or at least their AFD reads that way. They’re going 8-11” along I-80 in Iowa. That seems optimistic given recent guidance but theyre the experts.
  11. hlcater
    If the 00z runs continue the trend that has been evident since 00z last night, CR/IC might consider themselves lucky to see 6-7”. The drying has been particularly bad in E IA.
  12. hlcater
    In most other cases I wouldn’t be lol but I was hoping that CR could end their 40 year 12” storm drought with this storm, as it looked like a possibility yesterday. Certainly not going to complain with 7-8”, just was hoping that those runs with 12” to the river would be realized. Been awhile since Iowa has had such luck with storms and will likely be awhile until it happens again, which is why I am relatively disappointed with the outcome here.
  13. hlcater
    I’m sure we will, but as I said last night, I was hoping for a shot at some truly impressive snows, so the trend towards something more garden variety (7-8”) is pretty crummy. Especially when considering the potential that was on the table.
  14. hlcater
    Euro is nasty. Forecasting half the totals that were originally forecast yesterday, even when including the first system. That’s a pretty remarkable drying on that model. I’d love for the GFS to be right, but it stands alone in bringing solid snows to the Mississippi. The trends have really screwed E IA in the big snow department.
  15. hlcater
    Damn if only the low didn’t fill so quickly. I mean it is possible that models are overdoing the speed of decay, but I don’t really want to count on that. Gonna hold with my call of 8” for IC for now. Looking like the winners are SE NE and SW IA. I picked up 2.4” overnight.
  16. hlcater
    Talk in the storm thread reminded me that I should update that the damage total is now up to 11 billion in NOAA's final 2020 analysis. https://cbs2iowa.com/news/local/derecho-damage-adjusted-to-11-billion
  17. hlcater
    the derecho transcends any and all big dogs. That event sits in a league of its own and may never be surpassed.
  18. hlcater
    Yea I was thinking that this storm was our best shot out of the past several years to make a run at that stat but to even be in contention, the wave needs to not shear out so quickly. Too bad that the trend tonight has been the opposite of that.
  19. hlcater
    It came from a local news station, we've seen unofficial totals since that have flirted with 12" however. This storm would likely be a slam dunk in this regard if the confluence out ahead of the wave werent so damn strong.
  20. hlcater
    Things are more or less the same here tonight as well. What changes though are that he odds of a truly historic snowfall(12+) for CR/IC itself are rapidly dwindling. Shame really, this storm had a shot to challenge CR's 40 year 12"er drought, but trends tonight are definitely in the wrong direction for doing so. My thoughts that someone sees 15" from this havent changed, just looking incredibly unlikely to be CR and decently unlikely to be IC.
  21. hlcater
    It’s rather significantly drier in eastern Iowa. IC, for example fell from 14” to 9.5”. CR flirts with the northern edge. Crummy run for this area relative to everything else.
  22. hlcater
    RAP is still a huge crush job for those west of the MS river. Will finish with a widespread 12+.
  23. hlcater
    00z consensus has tended to be slightly drier and a tick south so far. Especially with eastward extent.
  24. hlcater
    Think I'm gonna make a first call of 8-10" for IC. Though the QPF outputs are tantalizing and open the door for some really impressive totals if only ratios and banding cooperate. Still think someone somewhere in S IA exceeds 15".
  25. hlcater
    Euro looks like it upped QPF in general from the 12z.
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