hlcater

It's just an interesting choice thats all. I'm sure its a confidence thing, as the watches as posted are really only for the areas that are consistently modeled to receive 10-12" or more. I can see some benefits for doing that, such as getting the word out earlier for those most likely to receive high end impacts, but the issue I see with that is conflicting messaging by issuing watches on the fringes later on. It would seem logical to just issue two watches with different criteria, especially when the ceiling is so high. I mean this isn't a 5-7" storm with no wind. Some areas could feasibly see north of 14" especially if convective elements and banding play out, in addition to wind concerns that flirt with blizzard criteria. Their reasoning is probably confidence based as stated, but imo, with this storm that may not be the best approach. Best to just get the word out, you can always modify the watches later on.

and the para. Essentially in lock step with the operational.

Exhibit A: The 18z GFS. Absolute crush job for essentially the entire DVN CWA. Chicago folks do well too.

Left out CR too for some reason. I'll almost certainly be in IC for this one, but models are showing a big hit in CR too, especially those that are on the northern end of the spectrum.

Regional GEM has continued to come north and is a total weenie run for CR/IC and much of Iowa really. Mixing concerns in the far south of LOT's CWA.

How’s the mean look?

Oh my god why are you making claims based on the NAM and RGEM when you have literally the rest of guidance suggesting otherwise. Sure they could be right, but neither of them are especially good and are both operating outside of 60hrs. A met should really know better than to go all in on 2 garbage models that are towards the end of their operational range to boot.

Euro is a bit wetter in Iowa. Precip shield is also a bit more tilted than 00z. I’d love if the low would die a bit slower.

Man this is looking like a heck of a storm out here. Could even be 12-15” in the max band. Not sure that’s CR/IC but probably just south of us as we are starting to reach a pretty tight track consensus. That said, gusts to 40-45 mph seem likely for most of the event, and combined with heavy snow, should allow blizzard criteria to be met for many in Iowa/perhaps N IL as well. Assuming watches will be hoisted in the afternoon package? Looking more and more like the highest impact winter event in DVN’s CWA since 11/25/18.

would you mind posting NE too? I'm just curious what this is doing in the plains.

I also think, subjectively, that in the end the shearing doesnt begin to have real detrimental effects until at Chicago's longitude or east of there. I also think there's an impressive QPF bomb (yielding 15" or more??) somewhere, but models still differ on where that is, exactly. Wave starts to feel it between F66 and F72, but you would think the degradation of the precip shield itself would delay that by several hours, which by then would be over/east of Chicago.

Not quite the fridge material that the 18z run was. But much like the UK and Canadian, it peaks in Nebraska. Still solid through chicago however.

Easily the most aggressive model with the shearing of the wave right now. No other model is really even close.

Regional gem?

The 11/25/18 storm was that bad. North Liberty didn't see a flake while Iowa City saw 7-10" north to south.

I dont think I've seen an output like the 18z euro for this area inside of FH100 maybe ever. If I have, it's been since GHDII, but I think that only spit out 10-12" out this way with higher numbers east. Fridge caliber run

Borderline blizzard criteria according to the gust product. Would like to see more 45s and 50s to cement that claim though.

992 over STL towards Terre Haute probably bodes well for much of Iowa and N IL if you apply a better handling of cold sector precip (euro) to that low track.

where's the fun in that. This, this is enjoyable content. Not only that, its FREE.

you love blowing your load quickly though

Definitely some grade A shared memories being made right now

You're*** tyvm

Lol. It's almost as if arctic air doesnt tend to hold moisture very well and the region's historically biggest storms have happened with temps 25-30 degrees. Rejecting the fact that to even get a big storm, you need an airmass capable of holding moisture. Arctic air aint it.

lol fair enough

I feel like today's GEM is better than 2015's GEM though. This season I've actually been seriously considering it's solution more regularly. Not sure if when/they upgraded it relative to past years, but it seems like it.