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hlcater

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Everything posted by hlcater

  1. hlcater
    HRRR comes in way north and at the top of the QPF envelope. Not really sure what to think. The HRRR has consistently been on the north/stronger end of potential track solutions, and even at this range, I don't think that is something that can be entirely discounted anymore given the consistency that has been seen. But then again, the tendency for higher res guidance to be north in longer ranges is omnipresent.
  2. hlcater
    I’ve been hurt too much
  3. hlcater
    I thought it might come back south some. It’s still a somewhat northward outlier against the rest of guidance. And knowing CAMs tend to be a bit amped in their longer ranges makes me skeptical.
  4. hlcater
    You can’t really ask for more than the 00z HRRR. Good for everyone really. Still thinking the HRRR is liable to be too far north.
  5. hlcater
    I didnt even know there was a Korean model
  6. hlcater
    the ICON sucks my guy
  7. hlcater
    That won't happen. I think our clearest avenue to 6" is more QPF with the system in general (ie stronger/wider band of snowfall) rather than a track shift. There is a very strong consensus on a SE IA thru Chicago track.
  8. hlcater
    Think I'm probably going to throw in the towel for a 6" snow for CR. Thinking the max band ends up somwhere near washington, IA through evanston or so. Gonna go with a first call of 4"
  9. hlcater
    NAM coming southeast
  10. hlcater
    12z euro coming in ass
  11. hlcater
    hoping for a 50 mile shift northward. Though this seems unlikely with the way things seem to be evolving
  12. hlcater
    Losing confidence in the weekend storm for my area. A whiff south seems most likely.
  13. hlcater
    18z GFS and still snowing.
  14. hlcater
    DVN is bullish
  15. hlcater
    This would be fascinating. General consensus of potential for 2-4" on higher res guidance with a very narrow band of snow traversing the region tomorrow evening.
  16. hlcater
    Snow is wrapping up. Looking close to 3”. Very respectable and more than I thought
  17. hlcater
    Interesting how snow totals have increased even though the track has trended south.
  18. hlcater
    GFS is a strung out mess.
  19. hlcater
    Would probably go with a WWA for north and eastern portions of the DVN CWA given potential for briefly heavy rates during the morning commute, along with the fact that this will be the first impactful snow event of the entire season. Though forecast soundings overwhelmingly support small flake size out this way, so I question how heavy rates will actually be. Let's rephrase that to "reduced visibility"
  20. hlcater
    It’s a widespread 8-10” on kuchera. Isolated 12” in S IA
  21. hlcater
    Looks like a 1-3” system out this way on the morning guidance. After this December, even that is welcome.
  22. hlcater
    There's quite a lot of cold air/higher pressures to the north of the system in Canada pressing down. Think that suppresses the system at least some. The EC depiction from earlier today seemed like the most likely outcome to me.
  23. hlcater
    expecting the track to end up flatter than that in reality.
  24. hlcater
    It doesn’t on pivotal but has an evolution that would yield a storm in the time frame of other models
  25. hlcater
    UKMET
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